0305 ｜Dolphin Research Key Watch:

🐬 Macro/Industry

1、On Mar. 5, Premier Li Qiang delivered the Gov. Work Report at the Fourth Session of the 14th NPC, setting a 2026 GDP growth target of 4.5%–5% and CPI at approx. 2%. The plan balances employment, livelihoods, and industrial upgrade. A mild inflation target supports corporate earnings repair and stabilizes household expectations, lifting risk appetite in HK and A-shares.

🐬 Single Names

1、$NVIDIA(NVDA.US)

NVIDIA is shifting TSMC manufacturing capacity from H200 to the next-gen AI compute architecture Vera Rubin, preparing capacity for GTC launches. The move reflects management’s read on export controls and demand mix, proactively tilting to a higher-compute, more compliant platform to deepen its tech lead. Early capacity allocation for Vera Rubin should cement its leadership and benefit TSMC’s advanced nodes and the supply chain, while intensifying the industry’s iteration pressure.

2、$TENCENT(00700.HK)

Market reports indicate Tencent’s overseas gaming investments are under review by U.S. authorities over user data access. Regulatory risk is rising again, weighing on its globalization strategy and the value of overseas assets. If scrutiny tightens, Tencent may need to adjust equity stakes and absorb higher compliance costs, capping near-term valuation.

3、$OpenAI(OpenAI.NA)

OpenAI has hired Cooley and Wachtell to support IPO preparation, with a target window in Q4 2026. A faster listing timeline marks a new capitalization phase for the AI leader. Post-IPO valuation and performance are likely to be a bellwether for the global AI complex, steering sentiment and fund flows across the value chain.

4、$Coinbase(COIN.US)

Coinbase rallied nearly 15% at last close after Trump and CEO Brian Armstrong met privately, then publicly backed the 'CLARITY Act' and 'GENIUS Act' and pressed banks to stop obstructing stablecoin legislation, signaling a friendlier regulatory stance. The CFTC Chair also voiced support. A Bitcoin surge lifted platform trading volume and custody revenue expectations, while recent U.S. rollouts of commission-free stock and ETF trading and a partnership with Yahoo Finance expand the biz. footprint and boost user stickiness, driving rapid inflows and a sharp share-price move.

5、$XIAOMI-W(01810.HK)

President Lu Weibing told CNBC on Tue that Xiaomi plans annual upgrades to its in-house SoC chips and is preparing a standalone AI assistant for overseas markets. Annual chip updates strengthen core tech moats, reduce external reliance, and improve competitiveness in premium models. An overseas standalone AI assistant tailored to global markets supports premiumization and international expansion, enhancing the 'Human-Car-Home' ecosystem.

6、Dolphin Research on earnings and transcripts

Broadcom: 'Broadcom AVGO: AI firing on all cylinders; Is NVIDIA’s rival even sharper?', 'Broadcom AVGO (Trans): AI revenue to exceed 100bn by 2027; XPU partnership is sustainable' JD and Bilibili report tonight; Dolphin Research will track and publish analysis.

🐬 Top Gainers by Sector

A-shares: Heavy electrical equipment, education services, furniture/home improvement retailers. HK: Insurance brokers, heavy electrical equipment, trading & payment services. U.S.: Motorcycle manufacturers, industrial chemicals, cloud & data center.

🐬 Watch for Tomorrow

1、Marvell, Costco earnings. 2、U.S. Jan retail sales MoM, U.S. Feb seasonally adjusted nonfarm payrolls, U.S. Feb unemployment rate.

Risk disclosure and statement: Dolphin Research disclaimer and general disclosure