GraniteShares 2x Long LCID Daily ETF

⚡ 𝐔𝐏𝐃𝐀𝐓𝐄: $Lucid(LCID.US) Lucid Shares Plunge on Report of Strategic Review Including Bankruptcy Option

👉 𝐊𝐞𝐲 𝐇𝐢𝐠𝐡𝐥𝐢𝐠𝐡𝐭𝐬:

➤ 𝐋𝐮𝐜𝐢𝐝 shares fell as much as 𝐟𝐨𝐫𝐭𝐲-𝐬𝐢𝐱 𝐩𝐞𝐫𝐜𝐞𝐧𝐭 intraday.

➤ Stock entered 𝐭𝐰𝐨 volatility trading halts during Tuesday's session.

➤ Report says Lucid is evaluating 𝐬𝐭𝐫𝐚𝐭𝐞𝐠𝐢𝐜 options with AlixPartners.

➤ Options reportedly include 𝐠𝐨𝐢𝐧𝐠 𝐩𝐫𝐢𝐯𝐚𝐭𝐞 or filing for 𝐂𝐡𝐚𝐩𝐭𝐞𝐫 𝟏𝟏.

➤ 𝐀𝐥𝐢𝐱𝐏𝐚𝐫𝐭𝐧𝐞𝐫𝐬 will reportedly present findings before the next board meeting.

➤ Adviser reportedly recommends further 𝐫𝐞𝐬𝐭𝐫𝐮𝐜𝐭𝐮𝐫𝐢𝐧𝐠 in the U.S. and Europe.

➤ Report says Lucid should focus on the 𝐆𝐫𝐚𝐯𝐢𝐭𝐲 𝐒𝐔𝐕.

➤ The report states 𝐧𝐞𝐢𝐭𝐡𝐞𝐫 option represents a board decision.

➤ Speculation over a Saudi-backed 𝐭𝐚𝐤𝐞-𝐩𝐫𝐢𝐯𝐚𝐭𝐞 has persisted for months.

The avg price of a gallon of gas has risen from $2.98/gallon before the U.S.-Iran war to $3.86/gallon over the July 4th weekend after peaking at $4.56/gallon in June. The rise in gas prices is likely what caused the surge in 2Q EV deliveries YoY ( $Tesla(TSLA.US) +25%, $Rivian Automotive(RIVN.US) +14%, $Lucid(LCID.US) +20%) rather than recent advances in FSD/autonomy, which are still virtually unknown by most potential EV customers.

OPEC+ has a preliminary agreement for another modest oil quota increase in August, raising the prospect of more supply eventually hitting the market again if a US-Iran peace pact can stick. 

If ratified at a video conference on Sunday, seven major nations led by Saudi Arabia and Russia will add 188,000 barrels a day to their output target. The tiny on-paper hikes are starting to add up: it will mean they’ve added 940,000 barrels a day to quotas, equivalent to almost 1% of global demand, since the war began.

Oil futures have tumbled 43% from their war-time peak of $118/barrel at the end of April to $72 a barrel today, with many forecasters predicting the re-emergence of a global glut. OPEC and its partners could soon face a choice between restraining output or fighting over market share via a potential price war. 

I expect $Tesla(TSLA.US) stock to rebound this week as the sell-side climbs over one another to increase 2Q and FY’26 earnings ests, which could boost TSLA price targets. That said, at a 2026 P/E of 200x+ vs +35% long-term (2027-2032) EPS growth, which equates to a 6x PEG vs 2x for $NVIDIA(NVDA.US), $Alphabet - C(GOOG.US), $Meta Platforms(META.US), $Broadcom(AVGO.US), etc., I continue to see $Tesla(TSLA.US) as fully-priced.

$Lucid(LCID.US) | Cantor Fitzgerald reiterates 𝐍𝐞𝐮𝐭𝐫𝐚𝐥 on 𝐋𝐮𝐜𝐢𝐝, maintains 𝐏𝐓 𝐚𝐭 $𝟖

Analyst flags LCID's Q2 delivery miss vs. consensus but maintains Neutral rating and $8 PT, pending updated 2026 production guidance.

📢 𝐉𝐔𝐒𝐓 𝐈𝐍: $Lucid(LCID.US) Lucid Produced 4,774 EVs, Delivered 3,953 in Q2; Announces Leadership Overhaul

👉 𝐊𝐞𝐲 𝐇𝐢𝐠𝐡𝐥𝐢𝐠𝐡𝐭𝐬:

➤ 𝐋𝐮𝐜𝐢𝐝 produced 𝟒,𝟕𝟕𝟒 vehicles and delivered 𝟑,𝟗𝟓𝟑 vehicles in Q2 2026.

➤ CEO 𝐒𝐢𝐥𝐯𝐢𝐨 𝐍𝐚𝐩𝐨𝐥𝐢 announced a broad leadership restructuring.

➤ 𝐀𝐥𝐞𝐱𝐚𝐧𝐝𝐞𝐫 𝐃𝐞 𝐁𝐨𝐜𝐤 appointed CFO, succeeding Taoufiq Boussaid.

➤ 𝐑𝐚𝐣𝐚 𝐑𝐚𝐦𝐚𝐧𝐚 𝐌𝐚𝐜𝐡𝐚 named Chief Technology Officer.

➤ 𝐁𝐢𝐥𝐥𝐲 𝐇𝐚𝐲𝐞𝐬 appointed Chief Customer Officer, overseeing sales, service and marketing.

➤ 𝐊𝐚𝐲 𝐒𝐭𝐞𝐩𝐩𝐞𝐫 named President of Lucid Technologies and Chief Digital Officer.

➤ Lucid Technologies will operate as a 𝐬𝐞𝐩𝐚𝐫𝐚𝐭𝐞 𝐛𝐮𝐬𝐢𝐧𝐞𝐬𝐬 𝐮𝐧𝐢𝐭 focused on AI, autonomy and robotaxis.

➤ Leadership changes will reduce the CEO's 𝐝𝐢𝐫𝐞𝐜𝐭 𝐫𝐞𝐩𝐨𝐫𝐭𝐬 by half.

👉 𝐖𝐡𝐲 𝐈𝐭 𝐌𝐚𝐭𝐭𝐞𝐫𝐬:

➤ Leadership overhaul aims to improve 𝐞𝐱𝐞𝐜𝐮𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧, accountability and operational efficiency.

➤ Standalone Lucid Technologies highlights a stronger focus on 𝐀𝐈, 𝐚𝐮𝐭𝐨𝐧𝐨𝐦𝐲 and future mobility.

➤ Q2 production and deliveries provide investors with key indicators of 𝐨𝐩𝐞𝐫𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧𝐚𝐥 𝐩𝐞𝐫𝐟𝐨𝐫𝐦𝐚𝐧𝐜𝐞.

👉 𝐄𝐱𝐩𝐞𝐫𝐭 𝐒𝐭𝐚𝐭𝐞𝐦𝐞𝐧𝐭:

➤ "We are simplifying the organization, strengthening leadership, enforcing accountability and aligning our structure with the priorities that matter most: customers, quality, and innovation." — 𝐒𝐢𝐥𝐯𝐢𝐨 𝐍𝐚𝐩𝐨𝐥𝐢, CEO of Lucid.

📢 𝐉𝐔𝐒𝐓 𝐈𝐍: $Lucid(LCID.US) Lucid to Cut 18% of U.S. Workforce, Targets $158 Million Annual Savings

👉 𝐊𝐞𝐲 𝐇𝐢𝐠𝐡𝐥𝐢𝐠𝐡𝐭𝐬:

➤ 𝐋𝐮𝐜𝐢𝐝 will reduce its U.S. workforce by approximately 𝟏𝟖%.

➤ Job cuts affect 𝐟𝐮𝐥𝐥-𝐭𝐢𝐦𝐞 employees, contractors, and production workers.

➤ The company eliminated the 𝐬𝐞𝐜𝐨𝐧𝐝 𝐩𝐫𝐨𝐝𝐮𝐜𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧 𝐬𝐡𝐢𝐟𝐭 at its AMP-1 factory.

➤ Lucid expects approximately $𝟏𝟓𝟖 𝐦𝐢𝐥𝐥𝐢𝐨𝐧 in annualized cost savings.

➤ Restructuring is expected to result in about $𝟑𝟐 𝐦𝐢𝐥𝐥𝐢𝐨𝐧 of cash charges.

➤ Charges include 𝐬𝐞𝐯𝐞𝐫𝐚𝐧𝐜𝐞, employee benefits, and transition costs.

➤ The restructuring is expected to be substantially completed by 𝐐𝟑 𝟐𝟎𝟐𝟔.

➤ COO 𝐌𝐚𝐫𝐜 𝐖𝐢𝐧𝐭𝐞𝐫𝐡𝐨𝐟𝐟 departed immediately following elimination of the position.

➤ Lucid said the plan aligns production with 𝐚𝐧𝐭𝐢𝐜𝐢𝐩𝐚𝐭𝐞𝐝 𝐝𝐞𝐦𝐚𝐧𝐝 and profitability goals.

👉 𝐖𝐡𝐲 𝐈𝐭 𝐌𝐚𝐭𝐭𝐞𝐫𝐬:

➤ Workforce reductions signal continued 𝐜𝐨𝐬𝐭-𝐜𝐮𝐭𝐭𝐢𝐧𝐠 efforts amid EV market pressures.

➤ $𝟏𝟓𝟖 𝐦𝐢𝐥𝐥𝐢𝐨𝐧 in targeted savings could improve cash flow and margins.

➤ Production shift cuts suggest Lucid is adjusting output to match 𝐝𝐞𝐦𝐚𝐧𝐝 conditions.

➤ COO departure marks a significant 𝐥𝐞𝐚𝐝𝐞𝐫𝐬𝐡𝐢𝐩 change during the restructuring.

👉 𝐄𝐱𝐩𝐞𝐫𝐭 𝐒𝐭𝐚𝐭𝐞𝐦𝐞𝐧𝐭:

➤ "The plan is intended to streamline our organizational structure, optimize operating expenses, and align production plans with anticipated demand as we work toward profitability and positive cash flow generation." — 𝐋𝐮𝐜𝐢𝐝 𝐆𝐫𝐨𝐮𝐩.

📢 𝐉𝐔𝐒𝐓 𝐈𝐍: Uber, Nuro, and Lucid Plan Houston Robotaxi Launch in 2027 - $Lucid(LCID.US) $Uber Tech(UBER.US)

👉 𝐊𝐞𝐲 𝐇𝐢𝐠𝐡𝐥𝐢𝐠𝐡𝐭𝐬:

➤ 𝐔𝐛𝐞𝐫, 𝐍𝐮𝐫𝐨, and 𝐋𝐮𝐜𝐢𝐝 selected Houston as their 𝐬𝐞𝐜𝐨𝐧𝐝 planned robotaxi market.

➤ Commercial robotaxi service is expected to launch in 𝐦𝐢𝐝-𝟐𝟎𝟐𝟕 through the Uber network.

➤ The program's first market launch remains the 𝐒𝐚𝐧 𝐅𝐫𝐚𝐧𝐜𝐢𝐬𝐜𝐨 𝐁𝐚𝐲 𝐀𝐫𝐞𝐚 later this year.

➤ Nuro is conducting 𝟐𝟒/𝟕 autonomous testing with safety operators in Houston and California.

➤ The robotaxi engineering fleet includes nearly 𝟏𝟎𝟎 𝐯𝐞𝐡𝐢𝐜𝐥𝐞𝐬 across Texas and California.

➤ Uber secured a 𝟓𝟎,𝟎𝟎𝟎-𝐬𝐪𝐮𝐚𝐫𝐞-𝐟𝐨𝐨𝐭 Houston depot and dedicated charging facility.

➤ Service will use 𝐋𝐮𝐜𝐢𝐝 𝐆𝐫𝐚𝐯𝐢𝐭𝐲 EVs powered by Nuro's 𝐋𝐞𝐯𝐞𝐥 𝟒 autonomy platform.

➤ The partnership targets deployment of at least 𝟑𝟓,𝟎𝟎𝟎 robotaxis globally over time.

➤ Vehicles will be available 𝐞𝐱𝐜𝐥𝐮𝐬𝐢𝐯𝐞𝐥𝐲 through the Uber platform.

👉 𝐖𝐡𝐲 𝐈𝐭 𝐌𝐚𝐭𝐭𝐞𝐫𝐬:

➤ Marks another step toward large-scale 𝐫𝐨𝐛𝐨𝐭𝐚𝐱𝐢 commercialization in the U.S.

➤ Houston's size and regulatory environment provide a key 𝐭𝐞𝐬𝐭𝐢𝐧𝐠 𝐠𝐫𝐨𝐮𝐧𝐝 for autonomous mobility.

➤ Expands competition among major players in the 𝐬𝐞𝐥𝐟-𝐝𝐫𝐢𝐯𝐢𝐧𝐠 ride-hailing market.

👉 𝐄𝐱𝐩𝐞𝐫𝐭 𝐒𝐭𝐚𝐭𝐞𝐦𝐞𝐧𝐭:

➤ "Houston marks an important next step in our partnership with Lucid and Nuro as we expand autonomous mobility to more riders throughout the world. Together, we're combining best-in-class vehicle and autonomy technology with Uber's scale, fleet operations expertise, and infrastructure capabilities to build a service that can grow across dozens of markets in the years ahead." — 𝐒𝐚𝐫𝐟𝐫𝐚𝐳 𝐌𝐚𝐫𝐞𝐝𝐢𝐚, Global Head of Autonomous Mobility & Delivery at Uber.

➤ "Houston is a city Nuro knows well, and we're excited to help bring this robotaxi service to the city through our partnership with Uber and Lucid. Houston's large, complex metro area is an ideal market for demonstrating how Nuro's universal autonomy platform can generalize across different geographies and operating environments." — 𝐀𝐧𝐝𝐫𝐞𝐰 𝐂𝐡𝐚𝐩𝐢𝐧, Chief Operating Officer at Nuro.

➤ "Our partnership with Uber and Nuro continues to accelerate at a remarkable pace, and the launch of our program in Houston next year will be another major milestone. Our rapid progress toward commercial launch showcases how Lucid's technology and engineering are ideally suited to power the future of autonomous mobility." — 𝐊𝐚𝐲 𝐒𝐭𝐞𝐩𝐩𝐞𝐫, Vice President of ADAS and Autonomy at Lucid.

📢 𝐉𝐔𝐒𝐓 𝐈𝐍: $Lucid(LCID.US) Lucid Rolls Out Hands-Free Driving Update for Gravity SUV

👉 𝐊𝐞𝐲 𝐇𝐢𝐠𝐡𝐥𝐢𝐠𝐡𝐭𝐬:

➤ Lucid launches software update adding 𝐇𝐚𝐧𝐝𝐬-𝐅𝐫𝐞𝐞 𝐃𝐫𝐢𝐯𝐞 𝐀𝐬𝐬𝐢𝐬𝐭 for Gravity SUVs.

➤ System supports hands-free 𝐬𝐭𝐞𝐞𝐫𝐢𝐧𝐠, acceleration, and braking on compatible highways.

➤ New features include 𝐇𝐚𝐧𝐝𝐬-𝐅𝐫𝐞𝐞 and 𝐀𝐮𝐭𝐨𝐦𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐜 𝐋𝐚𝐧𝐞 𝐂𝐡𝐚𝐧𝐠𝐞 capabilities.

➤ Navigation upgraded with 𝐆𝐨𝐨𝐠𝐥𝐞 𝐌𝐚𝐩𝐬 𝐏𝐥𝐚𝐜𝐞𝐬 𝐀𝐏𝐈 integration and richer search results.

➤ Charging stations now display 𝐫𝐞𝐚𝐥-𝐭𝐢𝐦𝐞 availability and updated location imagery.

➤ Adaptive Driving Beam headlights improve 𝐧𝐢𝐠𝐡𝐭𝐭𝐢𝐦𝐞 visibility while reducing glare.

➤ New charging tools provide battery 𝐩𝐫𝐞𝐜𝐨𝐧𝐝𝐢𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧 and charging performance insights.

From $Uber Tech(UBER.US) conf call (now +2% pre-mkt).

CEO Dara Khosrowshahi: “We view the introduction of AVs as an overall growth driver in the markets in which we operate. AVs in the marketplace are turning out to be net positives in growing the overall economic pie. This is not the kind of technology that is going to replace. It’s going to augment.

“We are seeing AVs on our platform at significantly higher utilizations than one piece standalone platforms based on the publicly available data. And the trips per vehicle are 30% higher. ETAs are better as well.

“And then if you look at the partnerships that we are setting up, whether it's a partnership with Waymo or Nvidia or newest partner wabi or AV ride or Neuro and Lucid, which kind of have a production ready car out there, we expect to be in 15 cities by the end of this year and then expanding beyond that as well, which should actually increase kind of the wave of kind of the AV business that we're seeing behind us. So from a top line basis, we see AV as a net positive for the ecosystem in terms of margins. I think Avs are going to be very similar to other products out there, which is any time we introduce a newer product, we introduce it at a lower margin than, let's say, Uber or Uber Black or Uber Reserve as we're building out liquidity and then over a period of time, margins improve. And for example, in the deals that we're striking today, with various partners, with AV partners at scale, we are going to have healthy economics based on current consumer affairs and healthy economics being positive economics.”

$Uber Tech(UBER.US) +1.0% today on news it will partner with $Lucid(LCID.US) and Nuro to launch a fully autonomous ride hailing service with an initial 100 vehicles in SFO by the end of next year. Within six years, Uber said it plans to deploy 20,000 or more Lucid-based autonomous vehicles in multiple locations. The Uber self-driving vehicles will be available to riders through the Uber app.

Yesterday, $Uber Tech(UBER.US) said it is developing robotaxis with $NVIDIA(NVDA.US) and the automaker Stellantis ( $Stellantis NV(STLA.US)). By 2028, Stellantis expects to start production of at least 5,000 vehicles powered by Nvidia software for UBER autonomous taxi operations in the U.S., with an ultimate goal of 100,000 vehicles in the fleet.

Last week $Uber Tech(UBER.US) said it had begun offering autonomous taxi rides in Saudi Arabia as part of a partnership with WeRide, a Hong Kong-based tech company. Uber operates in 15,000 cities in more than 70 countries. In 2Q, $Uber Tech(UBER.US) reported 180M monthly active platform customers (MAPC), who completed an avg of 36.7M trips per day.

$Tesla(TSLA.US) now trades at a forward P/E of 180x. In the history of the stock market, we can’t find a single $1T market cap company that traded at a forward P/E of 180x (we even asked Grok with no success). Why not? The long-term growth rate needed to justify a 180x P/E would cause TSLA market cap to be bigger than $Apple(AAPL.US) and $Microsoft(MSFT.US), which seems insane since both have huge TAMs, unassailable brands, and highly predictable future cash flow streams.

TSLA bulls who pretend they understand finance dismiss my argument that TSLA’s valuation looks stretched by saying the 2025 P/E is irrelevant. Rule #1 in investing is buy low, sell high. Rule #2 is price is what you pay, value is what you get. Arguing that P/E doesn’t matter to an investment decision tells me the person doing the arguing has no valuation discipline and is just buying concepts, rather than on some assessment of value vs price.

A stock’s valuation is the present value of ALL future cash flows discounted back at a risk-adjusted cost of capital, plus net cash. One can then divide that estimated value by 2025 earnings, 2026 earnings, 2030 earnings, or any future earnings to calculate a stock’s appropriate P/E. To say that P/E doesn’t matter is equivalent to saying one doesn’t take valuation into consideration when making an investment decision. That would be like buying an apartment building and saying the current rent roll, expected future rent increases, and future expenses don’t matter. Normally, an investor’s valuation of a stock gets compared to the current price. If the investor’s valuation is much higher than price, one buys the stock; if lower, one exits the stock or doesn’t hold it. At the extreme, one can short a stock if it’s a bad business and the value is significantly below price as we have done with $Lucid(LCID.US) and $Polestar Automotive UK(PSNY.US). We can’t see a situation where we would short $Tesla(TSLA.US).

P/E is a short hand metric used by portfolio managers to size relative positions. If one only owns one stock, a metric like P/E doesn’t matter. Institutional portfolis typically contain 30-100 positions. Without these shorthand metrics (P/E, P/E vs long-term eps growth (PEG), EV/Ebitda vs long-term rev growth, % upside/downside based on present value to price) how does one with multiple positions size $Tesla(TSLA.US) vs $NVIDIA(NVDA.US) vs $Meta Platforms(META.US)? We tend to use risk-adjusted upside/downside to size positions.

Next year’s TSLA WS earnings are now $1.93 per share. 2026 EPS is $2.90. 2028 EPS is $7.60. All are down 25-40% from the start of 2025 as WS marked down the future earnings power of Tesla’s EV business as FY’25 delivery estimates came down. The EV business still comprised 72% of Tesla profits in 2025/1Q. Analysts typically look at P/Es relative to the future growth rate, which tend to degrade over time as success attracts competitors who over time match a company’s technological advancements. If there’s a moat, or a patent, or a technogical advantage that can’t be copied then a 180+ P/E may be justified if equally high growth rates can be sustained.

On 2025 (1-year forward) non-GAAP eps, TSLA at Friday’s close of $347 trades at a 2025 (one year forward) P/E of 180x, a 2026 (two year forward) P/E of 120x, and 2029 (5-year forward) P/E of 45x. The 2025 and 2026 P/Es are extremely high relative to TSLA historical comparable forward P/Es. The 2029 (5-year forward) P/E is in line.

As our forecasts go out to 2029 and beyond, TSLA’s forward growth rate will degrade as Robotaxi and Optimus are included in the base. When an analyst opines about a P/E it’s usually to assess the P/E relative to the future growth rate from that point forward. So a 2025 P/E gets compared to the forward eps growth rate from 2025-on; the 2026 P/E gets compared to the eps growth rate from 2026-on, and the 2029 P/E gets measured against the growth rate from 2029-on.