Allianzim US Large Cap Buffer10 Mar ETF

$POP MART(09992.HK)

Pop Mart: Is the Labubu Fever Breaking?

According to The Straits Times (2 April), Pop Mart’s staggering $42 billion valuation wipeout signals a “Labubu-sized” identity crisis. Investors are pivoting away from treating the toy maker as a high-flying, tech-adjacent firm, focusing instead on the structural risks of it being a fleeting consumer trend.

🔹 Technical Snapshot: Catching a Falling Knife?

❤️ On the 4H chart, it shows a clear vertical selloff from HKD 220–230 zone down to 141.8.

❤️ Bollinger Band Exhaustion: The price is “hugging” the lower band (HKD 112.8). While technically overextended, the absence of a meaningful bounce suggests sustained selling pressure rather than an imminent reversal.

❤️ RSI Conditions: The RSI is deep in oversold territory at 25.39. Current momentum is so bearish that the RSI is simply “sliding” along the floor.

❤️ Resistance Levels: The 20-period SMA (blue line) at HKD 169.1 serves as the immediate ceiling.

🔹 Fundamentals Snapshot :

❤️ IP Over-Concentration: Labubu accounted for nearly 40% of 2025 revenue. This extreme reliance creates a “single point of failure”.

❤️Inventory Red Flags: Inventory turnover has spiked to 123 days. This suggests that while production remains high, the “sell-through” rate is decelerating.

❤️Valuation De-rating: Now trading at 10.3x forward earnings, the stock sits at a record-low valuation. However, the market is pricing in a “growth trap”.

❤️My Verdict: Patience Over Panic

Pop Mart is currently a high-risk contrarian play, with high rewards. While the valuation is objectively tempting and management is active with share buybacks, the technicals have yet to signal a definitive bottom.

Stay prudent, wait for a “basing” pattern. Look for the price to consolidate between HKD 140–150 for several sessions without posting new lows.

Not financial advice. Trade safety and stay vigilant at all times.

POP MART 25H2 First Take: After the print, the stock slumped 22% in the afternoon. On a 2H-only view, results were broadly in line with Bloomberg consensus but below some aggressive buyside models, which Dolphin Research believes had front‑run the move.

Setting the quarter aside, another disappointment was management’s conservative 2026 guide at 20% growth. Excluding new overseas store openings, the implied same‑store growth looks low single‑digit, which together fueled the afternoon selloff.

1、Overseas revenue below expectations. In 25H2, POP MART delivered revenue of RMB 23.2bn (+174% YoY), a slowdown from the 200%+ pace in H1. Domestic revenue reached RMB 12.6bn (+183% YoY), accelerating vs. H1 on stronger omni‑channel execution with outsized online contribution, beating the Street.

Overseas grew 281% YoY but decelerated vs. H1, especially in North America. Versus 10x+ growth in Q3, channel checks indicate offline sales softened after Nov. Black Friday promotions failed to deliver the expected surge, with growth falling below 500%, weighing on overseas performance.

2、Rising contribution from The Monsters. With Labubu capacity ramping in H2, The Monsters’ mix rose from 34.7% in H1 to 40%. New IP launches received mixed reviews, raising concerns about dependence on a single IP; on the positive side, the Xingxing Ren series became the fastest‑growing IP, up from under 3% to 7.2%.

3、Plush is now the largest category. The share of figures led by blind boxes continued to decline, while plush toys with higher GPM surged. Beyond The Monsters, many other IPs adopted plush designs, lifting plush’s overall mix from 44% in H1 to 54%.

4、GPM at a record high. A richer overseas mix and the rapid rise of higher‑margin plush pushed GPM to 73% in 25H2, a new high.

5、Operating leverage kicking in. The sales expense ratio fell as the company leaned into lower‑cost customer acquisition on overseas online platforms (Instagram, TikTok), and G&A also declined on disciplined spending and improved internal decision efficiency, lifting core OPM to 48%。$POP MART(09992.HK)