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user_setbbkgs124Rate Of Return9 hours ago
$TE Connectivity(TEL.US)
From a risk management and capital perspective, the post-earnings pullback has created a stark valuation disconnect. TEL currently features a remarkably compressed price-to-earnings-to-growth (PEG) ratio of 0.18, signaling that the market is severely underpricing its trailing 107.5% net income growth. Concurrently, aggressive ongoing share buybacks are actively supporting shareholder yield. Rather than chasing overextended AI software names, accumulating this deeply undervalued hardware anchor during a consolidation phase is a highly disciplined way to play the secular hardware and energy grid modernization cycle.
Trade Showcase: Trade, Show & Earn Rewards!
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Equity research2 days ago, 08:34 AM
Morgan Stanley: Intel CapEx Spend
Core Forecasts and Capex Revisions
> WFE and Capex Projections: The 2027 WFE forecast is set at $202 billion (a 31% year-over-year increase), which incorporates a $25 billion capex assumption specifically for Intel, though analysts see potential for further upside.
> Upward Revisions: Intel previously revised its 2026 capex outlook to over $20 billion and signaled that 2027 capex will be "significantly above 2026 levels".
> CPU Demand Drivers: Producing 5 million incremental Xeon 6 units requires an estimated $5.3 billion+ in WFE. Expanding logic wafer capacity to capture two-thirds of incremental CPU units (22.4 million units through 2030) demands a minimum of $23.8 billion for Xeon 6 and $27.9 billion for Xeon 7.
Key Equipment Beneficiaries
> Outside the US:
Tokyo Electron (TEL): Historically counts Intel as a major customer (ranging from over 10% up to 20.4% in F3/20).
Lasertec: Has seen Intel represent 10% or more of its customer base historically, peaking at 31.6% in F6/22.
> Within the US:
KLA Corp (KLAC): Highlighted as an outsized US beneficiary. Although Intel has not been a 10% customer since F6/15, Intel is heavily leaning on KLA to improve manufacturing yields and margins to succeed as a viable foundry, positioning KLA for potential massive revenue growth from Intel between 2025 and 2027.
$KLA $Intel(INTC.US)
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user_setbbkgs124Rate Of ReturnJul 22 at 12:10 PM
$TE Connectivity(TEL.US)
TE Connectivity (TEL) presents a fascinating case of market divergence today, plunging nearly 8.3% to $191.67 despite delivering a blockbuster Q3 2026 earnings report. The company smashed expectations with record net sales of $5.16 billion (up 14% YoY) and a 22% surge in adjusted EPS to $2.94.
TEL’s forward guidance remains highly robust, predicting double-digit growth into Q4, while their record-breaking $5.7 billion in new orders (up 27%) indicates massive sustained demand from AI data centers, industrial automation, and EV sectors. For long-term portfolios, utilizing a disciplined dollar-cost averaging (DCA) strategy during this integration dip looks highly rational, capturing a global market leader at a temporary discount.
Continue holding and look for buy in opportunities
Trade Showcase: Trade, Show & Earn Rewards!
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Equity researchJul 19 at 01:46 PM
Morgan Stanley: Semiconductor Production Equipment
Market Dynamics by Application
> Segment Dominance: Logic/Foundry is the largest segment of the Wafer Fab Equipment (WFE) market. Within this segment, TSMC accounts for approximately 30–50% of the market.
> Industry Specialization: Among major Japanese equipment makers, companies are typically associated with specific application plays:
SCREEN: Primarily a Logic/Foundry play.
TEL (Tokyo Electron): Primarily a DRAM-related play.
KOKUSAI: Primarily a NAND-related play.
Front-End vs. Back-End
> Market Split: The semiconductor equipment market is split roughly 9:1 between front-end and back-end equipment.
> Trend Rebound: While the back-end equipment share trended downward for over 20 years as front-end tool value-add and unit prices rose, it has recently rebounded due to surging demand in the AI semiconductor market.
Competitive Landscape in Key Equipment Segments
> Lithography: The market is highly concentrated, with ASML holding a 95% share of the CY25 worldwide lithography equipment market.
> Dry Etching: The market for etchers is diverse. Lam Research leads with a 43% share, followed by Tokyo Electron (20%) and AMAT (19%).
In Conductor Etch, Lam Research is the dominant player with a 50% share.
In Dielectric Etch, Tokyo Electron holds the majority share at 55%.
Nvidia Compute Chip Cost Breakdown
> Gross Profit: The gross profit margin accounts for 75% of the total cost.
> Frontend Costs: The wafer cost represents 6% of the total.
> Backend Costs: These total 19% of the cost structure, broken down into:
HBM cost: 13%.
Test cost: 3%.
CoWoS cost: 3%
ASIC Cost Breakdown
> Gross Profit: The gross profit margin is significantly lower at 45% of the total cost.
> Frontend Costs: The wafer cost represents 13% of the total.
> Backend Costs: These total 42% of the cost structure, broken down into:
HBM cost: 24%.
Test cost: 7%.
CoWoS cost: 11%.
$NVIDIA(NVDA.US) $Alphabet(GOOGL.US) $Amazon(AMZN.US) $Applied Materials(AMAT.US) $Lam Research(LRCX.US)
+1
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Equity researchJul 17 at 03:32 PM
Next week will be huge...many big names reporting.
Texas Instruments $Texas Instruments(TXN.US)
Intel $Intel(INTC.US)
Tesla $Tesla(TSLA.US)
Google $Alphabet(GOOGL.US)
GE Vernova $GE Vernova(GEV.US)
Nokia $Nokia Oyj(NOK.US)
STMicroelectronics $STMicroelectronics NV(STM.US)
TE Connectivity $TE Connectivity(TEL.US)
IBM $IBM(IBM.US)
ServiceNow $ServiceNow(NOW.US)
TE Connectivity
USTEL
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Equity researchJul 9 at 11:12 PM
Goldman Sachs had released a supply/demand heatmap and price trends for major sub-segments/products. To provide an overview, here are some key names at each layer:
DRAM
SK Hynix $000660.KS
Micron $Micron Tech(MU.US)
CXMT
Nanya Technology $2408.TW
Samsung Electronics $005930.KS
NAND
SK Hynix $000660.KS
Micron $Micron Tech(MU.US)
Samsung Electronics $005930.KS
Sandisk $Sandisk(SNDK.US)
Kioxia $285A.T
Western Digital $Western Digital(WDC.US)
YMTC
Nearline HDD
Seagate $Seagate Tech(STX.US)
Toshiba
Western Digital $Western Digital(WDC.US)
Foundry - TSMC & Local China
SMIC $0981.HK
Hua Hong Grace Semiconductor $1347.HK
Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing $Taiwan Semiconductor(TSM.US)
Analog Semis - Global & Local China
Infineon Technologies $IFX.DE
Texas Instruments $Texas Instruments(TXN.US)
ON Semiconductor $ON Semiconductor(ON.US)
STMicroelectronics $STMicroelectronics NV(STM.US)
OmniVision Integrated Circuits $603501.SS
StarPower Semiconductor $603290.SS
Nexperia
SPE (Front/Back-End) - Japan & Local China
Tokyo Electron $8035.T
Advantest $6857.T
Lasertec $6920.T
Disco $6146.T
Naura Technology $002371.SZ
Advanced Micro-Fabrication Equipment $688012.SS
Kingsemi $688037.SS
Optics - Cables, Connectors, Devices
Coherent $Coherent Corp.(COHR.US)
Lumentum $Lumentum(LITE.US)
Applied Optoelectronics $Applied Optoelectronics(AAOI.US)
Fabrinet $Fabrinet(FN.US)
Zhongji Innolight $300308.SZ
Eoptolink $300502.SZ
Amphenol $Amphenol(APH.US)
Credo $Credo Tech(CRDO.US)
Semtech $Semtech(SMTC.US)
Macom $Macom Tech(MTSI.US)
TE Connectivity $TE Connectivity(TEL.US)
Corning $Corning(GLW.US)
MLCC
Vishay Intertechnology $Vishay Intertech(VSH.US)
Murata Manufacturing $6981.T
Taiyo Yuden $6937.T
TDK $6762.T
Yageo $2327.TW
ABF Substrate
Unimicron $2302.TW
Shinko Electric $6967.T
Ibiden $4062.T
AT&S $ATS(ATS.US).VI
Nan Ya PCB $8046.TW
PCB/CCL
Victory Giant Technology $300476.SZ
Unimicron $2302.TW
Elite Material $2383.TW
WUS Printed Circuit $2368.TW
Furukawa Electric $5801.T
Taiwan Union Technology $6274.TW
Doosan $000150.KS
Shennan Circuits $002916.SZ
T-Glass
Nittobo $6762.T
InP Substrate
AXT Inc $AXT(AXTI.US)
Sumitomo Electric $5802.T
Tantalum Powder
Advanced Metallurgical Group $Affiliated Managers(AMG.US).AS
Silicon Wafers
Shin-Etsu Chemical $4063.T
SUMCO $3436.T
GlobalWafers $6488.TW
Siltronics AG $WAF.DE
Note: Does not cover all possible names. This is a brief overview.
TE Connectivity
USTEL
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Michael Burry TrackerApr 17 at 11:37 AM
We've seen this film before...
Nasdaq hit its 12th straight record close while companies with 0 AI expertise rebrand overnight and rip 200-600%
26 years ago, it was a similar script with ".com"
Then (1998-2000):
• April 9, 1998: K-Tel announced a pivot to online music sales and stock ripped +900%
• March 29, 1999: Computer Literacy rebranded to Fatbrain com and stock ripped +322%
• March 21, 2000 Goldman Sachs told clients to go 90% stocks
• April 17, 2000: Nasdaq had its biggest one-day point gain in history.
In 2026:
• April 2, 2026: Goldman Sachs told clients the worst of the selling is behind us
• April 15, 2026: Allbirds rebranded to NewBird AI to rent GPUs and stock ripped +582%
• April 16, 2026: Myseum rebranded to Myseum AI and stock ripped +200% pre-market
• April 16, 2026: Nasdaq closes at a new all-time high
The Nasdaq crashed 78% and bottomed 30 months after that April 17, 2000 rally...
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Boss's BossNov 29, 2025 at 07:26 AM
In-depth Strategic Analysis Report on Japan's Top 10 Business Giants: Core Competencies, Global Competitiveness, and Future Outlook (2025 Edition)
Written in front, unfortunately, Longbridge still cannot directly purchase Japanese stock market stocks. However, I currently hold some Hitachi-related assets through other channels. Making a little profit is not bad. Executive Summary: The Global Revival and Structural Transformation of Japanese Companies By November 2025, the business landscape in Japan and globally is undergoing profound restructuring. Once seen as stagnant in growth, "Japan Inc." is now making aggressive balance sheet restructuring, focusing on core businesses, and betting big on next-generation technologies (such as all-solid-state batteries, generative AI, advanced semiconductor packaging)...
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AI GossipJul 24, 2025 at 02:37 AM
$Veeco Instruments(VECO.US) $Applied Materials(AMAT.US) $COTN $TE Connectivity(TEL.US) $KLA(KLAC.US) $Lam Research(LRCX.US)
来源: Chips & Wafers
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AI GossipJul 23, 2025 at 01:17 AM
Fantastic report and call from #ASMPT ($0522.HK) with numerous industry implications:
Here are some of the key points:
· Booking and Q3 revenue guide above expectations
· China demand strong; EV and consumer
· ASMPT confident in TCB wins for HBM4 and CoW part of CoWoS
· Seeing signs of mainstream demand recovery
· Wire Bonder tool demand picking up; from AI and mainstream applications
$BESI, $Kulicke and Soffa(KLIC.US), #Shibaura($6590.T), $KLA(KLAC.US), $Applied Materials(AMAT.US), $TE Connectivity(TEL.US), $LCRX
Source: Chips & Wafers
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AI GossipJun 28, 2025 at 02:44 PM
SEMI Forecasts 69% Growth in Advanced Chipmaking Capacity Through '28.
👉Capex on advanced process equipment is expected to increase +94% vs. '24.
👉Investment in 2nm and below wafer equipment is projected to double from '24 to '28.
$Veeco Instruments(VECO.US) $Lam Research(LRCX.US) $Applied Materials(AMAT.US) $TE Connectivity(TEL.US) $COTN #EBARA $Entegris(ENTG.US)
Source: Chips & Wafers
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AI GossipMay 22, 2025 at 04:09 AM
We have heard a lot about Front-End China localization; that is China producing their own Front-End tools to replace international suppliers like $Applied Materials(AMAT.US)
$Lam Research(LRCX.US) $KLA(KLAC.US) and $TE Connectivity(TEL.US)
But what we should watch going forward is how China builds up their own #AdvancedPackaging ecosystem.
And if you have any doubt about the importance of Advanced Packaging, this statistic should be a wake up call:
👉"the total price of this ultra-high-computing GPU chip is about $3,000, of which the wafer manufacturing cost only accounts for $200, while the cost of advanced packaging is $723, about 3.6 times that of wafer manufacturing"
👉 "Industry insiders say that advanced packaging is currently the most innovative and investment-intensive sub-sector in the entire semiconductor field"
1/
Source: Chips & Wafers
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AI GossipMay 18, 2025 at 01:47 PM
Below we dive into the dynamics of Hybrid Bonding and the key equipment suppliers.
Read our analysis of a potential significant competitive shift and the corresponding Long/Short investment implications.
$Applied Materials(AMAT.US) $TE Connectivity(TEL.US)
Source: Chips & Wafers
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AI GossipMay 16, 2025 at 09:47 AM
Deeper down the rabbit hole:
Avinash Shantaram, the BU lead behind the $Applied Materials(AMAT.US) and $BESI Hybrid Bonding partnership, is now Corporate Director at $ASMI
And when Avinash (or "Avi to his friends) got this new job, you can bet Jim Papanu, now developing Hybrid Bonding at $TE Connectivity(TEL.US), reached out to wish him congrats.
(screen shots below)
Source: Chips & Wafers
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AI GossipMay 16, 2025 at 09:37 AM
We may be on to something here:
In December, $TE Connectivity(TEL.US) is presenting a paper at EPTC on "D2W Hybrid & Fusion Bonding to Enable Advanced Packaging" (hat tip @MooreMorrisSemi ).
The presenter is James Papanu.
Before coming to $TE Connectivity(TEL.US), James was "Director of Technology Development, Advanced Packaging Applications" at $Applied Materials(AMAT.US). It was during this time that $Applied Materials(AMAT.US) partnered with $BESI on a joint Hybrid Bonding tool.
In the description of his presentation, it says that $TE Connectivity(TEL.US) is working on an "integrated approach" and "cluster tool development". This is the exact language used by $BESI to describe the joint tool they have developed with $Applied Materials(AMAT.US).
(screen shots below)
Source: Chips & Wafers
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AI GossipMay 16, 2025 at 06:37 AM
#HBM in mobile!
"Apple’s 2027 iPhone Will Use Groundbreaking Mobile HBM"
The HBM story is not over!
$Micron Tech(MU.US) $SEC #SKHynix $SMHN $TE Connectivity(TEL.US)
Source: Chips & Wafers
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AI GossipMay 15, 2025 at 08:47 AM
With #CPO adoption around the corner, and #HBM5 looking to reach 20 layers, #HybridBonding has been heating up. And the name of the game is 'collaboration'.
$Applied Materials(AMAT.US) is working with $BESI, and $SMHN is partnered with #SET.
In each case, the former handles the Front-End die preparation steps and the later does the precision die attach steps.
#ASMPT is not going to be left behind, and I would expect to see some news soon regarding a partnership with a Front-End equipment company.
My guess is $TE Connectivity(TEL.US), given their recent commentary around Hybrid Bonding; albeit has thus far been more focused on W2W rather than D2W.
Will it be TEL? Only time will tell; no pun intended.
Source: Chips & Wafers
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AI GossipMay 14, 2025 at 12:47 PM
I guess this is why China revenue portion for the WFE guys hasn't started decelerating yet.
Everyone was guiding based on SMIC capacity plans but the smaller Hua Hong kicked in kept the numbers elevated.

$Applied Materials(AMAT.US) $Lam Research(LRCX.US) $ASML(ASML.US) $KLA $TE Connectivity(TEL.US)
Source: Chips & Wafers
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AI GossipApr 7, 2025 at 02:38 AM
I get Trump trying to onshore production and try to reset the trade order.
For WFE though, when you rely heavily on equipment partners outside the US (think $ASML(ASML.US), $TE Connectivity(TEL.US), even $Applied Materials(AMAT.US) facilities in Singapore), trying to build US fabs at a sensible cost while importing 5-10$ Billion worth of equipment (pre-tariff) is near impossible.
I don't know what advanced node $Intel(INTC.US) & $Taiwan Semiconductor(TSM.US) Arizona do with this.
(Dataset updated thru Feb 2025)
Source: Chips & Wafers