Direxion 20+Yr Trsry Bear 3X

🌟🌟🌟This week is jammed packed with lots of important events for the markets:

1. Big Tech Earnings: $Microsoft(MSFT.US)reports on Tuesday, $Meta Platforms(META.US)on Wednesday, $Apple(AAPL.US)and $Amazon(AMZN.US)on Thursday. $SK Hynix(SKHY.US)drops its results on Wednesday July 29.

What to watch: Investors are no longer focusing on generic AI hype. They are looking at hard data. I would be watching capital expenditure numbers to see whether Big Tech is successfully monetising their AI investments. A failure to prove high margins will spark an aggressive tech rotation.

2. The FOMC meeting on Wednesday followed by new Fed Chair Kevin Warsh's press conference.

What to watch: While Fed is widely expected to maintain a steady pace, pay close attention to the forward guidance. If Fed signals that interest rate will stay higher for longer due to recent trade tariffs, bond ETFs like $iShares barclays 20+ Yr Treasury Bd(TLT.US)and tech indices like Nasdaq 100 will face immediate downward pressure.

3. The US Q2 GDP Report Card on Thursday.

Consensus points to a stable print between 1.5% to 2.4%. If underlying consumer and business spending remains high, the market will jump.

4. Geopolitical & Energy Pivot

What to watch: Lower oil prices take the inflationary pressure off the consumer. If Iran war escalates, oil will surge past USD 100 a barrel.

Let's hope the market will have lots of good news. If not, then it is a great time for bargain hunting.

Bond prices drop when yields go up and Vice-versa. It confuses many, but the logic is pretty simple.

Diesel-driving bondholders are NOT having a good time rn $XLE $TLT

Stable dividend from TLT , wish increase more units in future.

And hold more other stocks position and grow my portfolio . 🫡

TLT is the best and stable monthly dividend and hedging products in my opinion, will try to add more in future.

All eyes on the bond market 👀 $TLT

Source: TrendSpider

Powell’s latest remarks: neutral to dovish

Powell just wrapped up his speech — overall, it leaned neutral to dovish. Two key takeaways:

First, he said that despite the current spike in oil prices, long-term inflation expectations remain stable. So the Fed hasn’t made any decisions yet — meaning rate hike expectations aren’t high.

Second, he noted that the Fed’s asset purchases — i.e., balance sheet expansion — help lower interest rates and support the economy. That’s actually the opposite of the tapering expectations that have been circulating.

Alright, neutral to dovish. The reaction from both stocks and bonds confirms that. But we’ll still need to see how oil prices react tonight. As long as oil holds steady, things should be fine.

$Micron Tech(MU.US) $Microsoft(MSFT.US) $Invesco QQQ Trust(QQQ.US) $SPDR S&P 500(SPY.US) $iShares barclays 20+ Yr Treasury Bd(TLT.US) $Meta Platforms(META.US) $SPDR Gold Shares(GLD.US)

Trump will TACO, he is clearly panicking right now with his truth social post over the weekend. He cannot possible lose the mid term elections if he drag the war. HE KNOWS IT!

Everything hinches on the war now, no one cares about earnings anymore. It's a break or make moment mates!

If earnings is good, and TRUMP manages to secure the strait of Honduras, be rest qsu4ed the bull run will return!

Alot of major earnings coming right up, it will determine it the market breaks up higher and ignore the war, or down it goes!

Am watching the US-China trade talk as Trump might utilise the opportunity to pressure China to help de-escalate the Iran conflict and let him emerge as a grand Victor before the mid term election. If the war can de-escalate, the market would be head for a rebound.

Xpeng earnings last of the week. EV margins still under pressure

Micron earnings Thursday. Memory stocks been on fire. Please keep running 🔥

Less Than One Rate Cut This Year?

The market is no longer fully pricing in a rate cut by the Federal Reserve this year. According to the latest interest rate swaps, bond traders now expect only 24 basis points of cuts for the year—essentially less than a full rate cut.

The reason? Soaring oil prices are fueling inflation expectations. Although Trump once again urged Powell to cut rates on social media today, a rate cut in March is almost impossible.

But whether this year will be as bleak as traders predict depends on the inflationary impact of oil prices and the state of U.S. employment going forward. And with Warsh set to take over in June, anything is possible.

$iShares barclays 20+ Yr Treasury Bd(TLT.US) $SPDR Gold Shares(GLD.US) $United States Oil Fund LP(USO.US) $Invesco QQQ Trust(QQQ.US) $SPDR S&P 500(SPY.US)

Heads up: US Nonfarm Payrolls tonight 🕘

US Feb jobs data drops at 9.30pm SG time. Market expecting +59k — a sharp drop from last month's 130k. If it comes in weaker, odds of a June rate cut could tick up.

War headlines may dominate sentiment for now, but jobs data still matters — it directly influences the Fed's next move and market liquidity.

$iShares barclays 20+ Yr Treasury Bd(TLT.US) $Invesco QQQ Trust(QQQ.US) $SPDR S&P 500(SPY.US)

$iShares barclays 20+ Yr Treasury Bd(TLT.US) and $Direxion 20+Yr Trsry Bull 3X(TMF.US) have been moving in such a funny way recently. The leveraged TMF barely budges; it feels like the faith of Treasury bulls is almost worn out. It's unbearable that the Dow keeps hitting new highs every day, dragging $Cboe Volatility Index(.VIX.US) down to the ground. Risk-hedging ETFs like $2x Long VIX Futures ETF(UVIX.US) and $Pro Vix Shrt Fut(VIXY.US) keep falling, and my portfolio is all red. Honestly, with the market being so fearless, it's better to just keep a small core position for peace of mind. Don't expect a big win; stability is enough. Buying volatility now is like fighting the trend head-on. Short-term trading is really easy to get depressed about; for the long term, just consider it tuition.

Wah! US Jan CPI just dropped — and it's good news 🚨

Actual: 2.4% (vs 2.5% expected). Lowest since May last year. Inflation finally cooling leh.

This definitely helps the Fed case for rate cuts. Market already pumping on the news 📈

Oh, I hope so too. I lost thousands last night...

🔥 Heads up: US CPI tonight 🕘

US Jan CPI drops at 9.30pm. Market expecting a very optimistic 2.5%. If it hits, that’s a big boost for sentiment.

After the strong NFP print on Monday, rate cut expectations got pushed back to July. But a solid CPI print tonight could bring June — or even April — back into play.

Hopefully CPI can save this messy market lah🙏

$Invesco QQQ Trust(QQQ.US) $iShares barclays 20+ Yr Treasury Bd(TLT.US) $SPDR S&P 500(SPY.US) $Proshares UltraPro QQQ(TQQQ.US)