Tripadvisor

$TRIP.COM-S(09961.HK)

🚨 Trip.com’s Record Penalty: What You Need To Know

The wait is over! Trip.com was hit with a ¥5.18 billion total penalty. The harshest antitrust fine in SAMR history at 7.5% of revenue, nearly double Alibaba’s and 2.5x Meituan’s.

It includes a base fine plus ¥1.66B clawback of illegal gains, and new rules. No exclusivity deals, algorithm overhauls and 3 years of strict compliance reporting.

The good news? Uncertainty is gone.

Based on Trip.com’s strong balance sheet, it can easily absorb this cost. ☺️

$TRIP.COM-S(09961.HK)

Will Trip.com Surge Once The Probe Ends 🤔?

Trip.com shares have taken a hit lately, weighed down by China’s ongoing SAMR antitrust investigation.

But history shows: even hefty fines often spark big rebounds once uncertainty clears. Here is what we learned from Alibaba and Meituan’s 2021 cases:

💡 3 Key Lessons From The Past

✅ Uncertainty hurts more than bad news

Stocks get punished hardest while probes are open. When Alibaba and Meituan were fined, both jumped 5–10% on day one and 10–20% within weeks. Putting a number on the penalty removes the “worst-case” fear.

✅ Immediate relief rally is likely

Short sellers will cover positions, and waiting institutional money will jump in and drive an initial jump once the decision is official.

✅ Long-term growth depends on rules and not fines

A fine is just a one off cost. What really matters: will regulators limit its core business (like capping hotel commissions or changing algorithms)?

📊 Full side-by-side comparison in the infographic above!

Put simply: The Chinese government doesn’t want Trip.com to crash and bankrupt. Chinese government needs trip.com to promote China. What do you think? Let’s discuss😁.

Not financial advice. Please do your own DD☺️

$TRIP.COM-S(09961.HK)

Today I bought Trip.com after reviewing its financials data and valuation ratio. I believe it is the right time to invest fundamentally sound company.

Right now, the stock is weighed down by China’s ongoing SAMR antitrust investigation which is expected to wrap up and be announced any day now.

It’s fundamentals stay rock-solid:💪🏽

✅ Fortress balance sheet: Net cash of HK$49.7 billion. Enough to pay off all debt completely, with plenty left over

✅ Interest coverage ~34x: No risk of trouble servicing debt anytime soon

✅ Low P/E and P/B: This comes from regulatory uncertainty and not weak business. Trip.com still runs strongly with high margins and ample liquidity.

Once the result is out, the biggest unknown will be gone and that is when the real value can shine through.