Dolphin Research

AVGO 3QFY26 First Take: revenue and GPM were broadly in line with the Street. Growth was driven by AI. Ex-amortization and restructuring, underlying GPM was 74%, down 200bps QoQ.

Medium to long term, a rising mix of lower-margin ASICs will pressure overall GPM. Margins could trend down as ASIC contribution increases.

AI, the key focus: AI revenue was $16.7bn this quarter, up $5.9bn QoQ. The company guides next quarter AI revenue to $21.7bn, up $5.0bn QoQ and slightly ahead of consensus (~$21.5bn).

On the call, management raised AI guidance to $58bn for this fiscal year (from $56bn) and $115bn+ for next fiscal year (FY27; from $100bn). It also offered an FY28 outlook of $230bn, implying 20GW.

As most major houses model FY27 AI revenue at ~$130–150bn, the $115bn outlook still looks tame. For FY28’s 20GW (~$230bn) outlook, about 10GW is tied to Anthropic; with Anthropic ARR growth decelerating, the market is likely to apply a haircut. For more details, follow Dolphin Research’s subsequent take and Trans. $Broadcom(AVGO.US)

DELL First Take: Results beat across the board, with revenue up $3.1bn QoQ.

AI revenue came in at $16.4bn, +$0.3bn QoQ and ahead of market expectations ($15.8bn).

This quarter’s AI revenue was largely propelled by Blackwell demand.

Management raised the FY revenue guide to $190–194bn, +$25bn vs. the prior $165–169bn and well above the street’s $170–180bn.

As Rubin is likely to scale in Q4, Dolphin Research views the FY guide as conservative and expects further raises.

Nio 2Q26 First Take: overall Q2 results were solid, while Q3 guidance was slightly below the street. At current trough valuation, downside from the softer guide looks limited.

Q2 results: ASP and margin beat. Product mix improvements kept pricing firm.

Q2 ASP reached RMB 270k, above the street's RMB 265k. Despite a sharp QoQ drop in ES8 mix, the flagship ES9, a higher-ticket SUV, backfilled. ASP slipped only RMB 3k QoQ.

Vehicle GPM was 18.5%, flat QoQ and above the 17.6% consensus. Management's earlier drivers played out: mix tilted toward higher-margin ES8/ES9 SUVs, and promo policies stayed stable across most models.

These positives offset part of the cost pressure. That pressure stemmed from higher lithium, copper, and memory chip prices.

Q3 guide: delivery and revenue guidance came in light. Both are below market expectations.

Nio guided Q3 deliveries at 108k–110k, vs. the street at 123k. With Jul and Aug at ~36k each, the guide implies Sep at only 36k–38k.

This suggests the initial launch buzz for the ONVO L80, ES9, and the 5-seat ES8 has faded as backlog cleared. New orders have normalized, leaving limited incremental upside in Sep.

ASP guide remains strong. Despite muted shipments, revenue guidance implies Q3 ASP rising to RMB 278k–280k from RMB 270k in Q2. Higher ES8/ES9 mix should support and lift vehicle margins.

While the Q3 volume guide flags softer near-term momentum, the stock already trades at <0.6x 2026 P/S. With pessimism largely priced in, even a soft near-term guide leaves limited downside at this valuation.$NIO Inc(NIO.US)$NIO-SW(09866.HK)$NIO Inc. USD OV(NIO.SG)

$Z.AI(02513.HK) Last night the company announced ARR of $1.6bn, a big positive. But on the investor call it guided year-end ARR at only $2.4bn.

This implies a sharp deceleration over the remaining four months. Monthly ARR growth would fall from the prior 40–50% range to below 15%.

There are three possible explanations. First, the Aug. ARR snapshot coincided with the GLM 5.3 and 5.3 Flash releases, which non-linearly lifted end-Aug metrics.

Second, as large models roll out in H2, supply increases, competition intensifies and price wars begin. Pricing pressure could slow the pace of ARR realization.

Third, the company may simply be guiding conservatively. Either way, a $2.4bn year-end guide is not upbeat.

However, Dolphin Research also noted upside potential. That said, the stock carries a rich premium, and intensifying H2 competition raises risk.

Additionally, because GLM-6 needs to be trained in H2, training spend will step up further. Overall R&D investment will stay aligned with ARR and commercialization.

On GPM, management guides steady, rational improvement for the full year. Over the next 12–18 months, it targets gross margin above 50%.

Zhipu 1H26 First Take: against a ~$70bn market cap, 1H revenue was $950mn, which is hardly exciting. GPM for the open platform and API remains low at 25% despite the sharp revenue scale-up, still below 30%.

What stood out vs. expectations was elsewhere. The surprises were:

a) Revenue mix shifted decisively, with the open platform and API now 86% of revenue. This largely removes concerns over Zhipu's much-disliked bespoke model project business. The market expected this mix to rise, just not by this much.

b) Spend was highly disciplined, with sales and admin down. R&D came in at just RMB 2.1bn, well below market expectations.

That said, the lengthy filing pales in comparison to a short headline: Aug ARR ran at $1.6bn with GLM 5.3 and 5.3 Flash, vs $1.0bn in Jul. A $1.6bn ARR can paper over any blemishes in the report. So Zhippu can keep dancing!$Z.AI(02513.HK)

Horizon Robotics 1H26 First Take. The company had pre-announced a profit warning, and 1H revenue and blended GPM landed toward the high end of guidance; however, guidance had already been cut vs. prior Street consensus, and the upside was driven by licensing and services.The core product solutions biz (chips + HSD algorithms) materially missed. Both revenue growth and margins slowed sharply; breakdown below:

1) Product solutions revenue slowed notably. The 'volume + price up' thesis remains unproven.

Revenue growth decelerated sharply: Q2 product solutions revenue was just RMB 930 mn, with growth slowing from 85% in 2H25 to only 15% in 1H26. This is far below the prior 2026 full-year guidance for the segment of +132%.

Shipments growth eased: 1H26 chip shipments were only 2.218 mn units, up just 12% YoY and below the full-year guide (Horizon has cut its FY shipments guide from 5.42 mn sets to 5.00 mn, implying ~25% YoY). The weakness reflects soft domestic PV retail demand in 1H26 (-20.2% YoY) and sales at key customer BYD Co. missing expectations, while BYD’s in-house high-compute 'Xuanji A3' chip (3-chip cluster >2,100 TOPS) stoked concerns about share loss in intelligent-driving chips.ASP gains stalled: 1H26 ASP was RMB 417, up only 2.4% YoY, indicating the higher-priced J6P has yet to scale. Shipments remain concentrated in the Mono series (J2, J3, J6B) and other mid/low-tier chips. The market’s thesis of domestic substitution led by the high-compute J6P driving both volume and ASP higher has not materialized in 1H26.

2) Product solutions GPM fell YoY, pressured by three factors.

Q2 product solutions GPM was just 36.2%, down 600 bps YoY and well below the 46.7% expected. Key drags included:

a) Product mix skewed to mid/low end. Shipments remained dominated by the lower-priced Mono series, while the high-ASP, high-margin J6P contributed minimally.

b) Memory price upcycle eroded hardware profits. DRAM prices continued to rise, and higher memory costs directly compressed product margins.

c) Higher mix of low-margin system-level deliveries. To accelerate roll-out of high-end HSD (SuperDrive) solutions, Horizon provided system-level deliveries including domain controllers to select clients. The low-margin domain-controller hardware diluted overall solution margins.$HORIZONROBOT-W(09660.HK)

Birentech 1H26 quick take: Post-market on Aug 28, Birentech released its first results since listing. As the company had already issued an interim profit alert on Aug 17 with ranges for revenue and loss, the better-than-expected narrowing was largely priced in.However, the next-day and subsequent tape suggested investors were not buying it.

In our initiation, we laid out the stock’s beta logic and H2 catalysts. This note tracks what in the print merits attention.

1. Revenue

Despite revenue surging +2,000% YoY to RMB 1.236bn, QoQ growth was only +26.6%, indicating no sustained step-up. The core revenue driver remains BR166X, which we flagged as a dated product in our coverage.Market focus is still squarely on BR20X.

2. Gross margin

GPM expanded 1,100bps YoY, yet it is clearly lower vs. peers Moore Threads/MetaX with near-60% GPM. This is largely due to the current mix being BR166X-heavy.Mass production of BR20X should improve margin structure.

3. Leading indicators

Downstream CSPs such as Tencent and Alibaba have materially ramped CAPEX, but this cycle has yet to show up in Birentech’s leading indicators. Inventories rose 28% vs. FY25, broadly in line with revenue growth, while contract liabilities shrank slightly.This suggests downstream orders have not flowed in meaningfully to Birentech, as BR166X lags peers by a generation and has not broken through with customers.

BR20X has taped out in small volumes, and prepayments rose +230% vs. end-FY25, likely reflecting upstream capacity reservations. We expect a meaningful ramp for BR20X in 2027.

4. Valuation

The company’s current market cap is RMB 87bn. We see domestic compute as a clear investment theme, with BR20X commercialization and customer breakthroughs remaining the key H2 watchpoints.That said, the fundamentals in this print do not point to a strong alpha name.

We think the tape-out validation cadence is not fast, and BR20X, initially slated for H2 commercialization, may be delayed. In the supply chain, leading foundry SMIC’s advanced-node capacity is primarily allocated to Huawei and Cambricon, and Hua Hong’s capacity ramp is another key risk.

In Dolphin Research’s TAM sizing, the AI xPU market reaches $80–90bn by 2030. Under a conservative case of 1.5% share (our base-case market split: Huawei ~70%, Cambricon ~10%, and if the remaining eight players split evenly, Birentech at ~2.5%), that implies revenue of $1.2–1.35bn.Assuming ~15x PS in 2030 and a 40% margin (≈38x PE), discounted back to 2026 at 13%, the fair value is $11–12bn, or ~HK$80bn.We see better downside protection at that level. $BIREN TECH(06082.HK)