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Economist Yoshimasa Maruyama predicts the Nikkei Index could reach 65,000 points by year-end, driven by market momentum and stable governance. He anticipates further growth to 73,000 by 2027 and 80,000 by 2028, but warns that escalating Middle East conflicts could negatively impact asset prices.

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STOCKS | Nikkei Index Could Reach 65,000 by Year-End, Economist Predicts

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Japan's economy grew by an annualized 2.1% in Q1, surpassing forecasts, but faces challenges due to the Iran war's impact on energy supplies. Private consumption rose 0.3%, and net external demand contributed positively. Analysts predict potential contraction in Q2 as energy costs rise, affecting inflation and corporate profits. The Bank of Japan's interest rate hike expectations may shift depending on the severity of supply disruptions.

- Japan's economy grew at an annualized rate of 2.1% in the first quarter, exceeding the market's expected 1.7%.  
- This growth is now threatened by the energy impacts of the Iranian conflict, with analysts predicting a slowdown in future quarters.  
- Private consumption increased by 0.3%, while net external demand contributed 0.3 percentage points to growth, despite rising risks from oil price fluctuations and supply disruptions.

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Japan’s economy grows at solid pace in Q1, but Iran war set to upend momentum

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Japan’s economy continued to expand during the first quarter of 2026, backing the case for an imminent rate hike by the Bank of Japan.

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JPMorgan Betabuilders Japan ETF

Japan’s economy accelerated in first quarter, backing case for rate hikes

Japan's economy grew at an annualized rate of 2.1% in Q1, supported by consumer and government spending, despite rising energy prices due to the Iran war. Private consumption rose 0.3% quarter-on-quarter. Imports increased by 0.5% and exports by 1.7%. Analysts predict moderate growth driven by spending on AI and defense, while inflation pressures may lead to interest rate hikes. The Nikkei 225 index fell 0.6% amid these developments.

- The Japanese economy grew at an annualised rate of 2.1 percent in the January-March quarter, benefiting from increased consumer and government spending.  
- Despite challenges from soaring oil prices due to the war in Iran, Japan's real GDP grew by 0.5 percent from the previous quarter, marking the second consecutive quarter of growth.  
- Analysts suggest Japan may continue to see moderate growth, influenced by spending on technology and potential interest rate adjustments from the central bank amid rising inflation pressures.

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Japan's economy expands at 2.1% annual pace, boosted by consumer spending

The Nikkei 225 Index has fallen for three consecutive days, reaching ¥60,910, its lowest since May. This decline is attributed to rising crude oil prices, with Brent at $113 and WTI at $110, following geopolitical tensions involving Iran. Additionally, Japanese government bond yields have surged, raising concerns about inflation and fiscal stability, as Japan's debt-to-GDP ratio stands at 250%. Analysts suggest the index may retest support at ¥59,462 before potentially rebounding.

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Top 2 reasons why the Nikkei 225 Index is crashing today

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Bank of Japan's Kazushige Kamiyama warned that while investment funds are crucial for providing risk capital, they also pose risks to the financial system. He noted the growing presence of foreign hedge and private equity funds in Japan, which could lead to increased price volatility in markets. As Japanese institutions lend more to these funds, the risk of external shocks affecting domestic markets rises, highlighting the need for enhanced cooperation among global financial authorities.

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BOJ warns of financial system risks from investment fund activity

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Japan’s producer prices surged 4.9% year-over-year in April 2026, up from 2.9% in March and surpassing the expected 3% growth. This marks the fastest increase since May 2023, driven by high-energy costs linked to supply chain issues from the war in Iran. Monthly, producer prices rose 2.3%, up from a 1.0% gain in March.

- Japan’s producer prices increased by 4.9% year-over-year in April 2026, surpassing the expected growth of 3%.  
- The rise is attributed to high-energy costs resulting from supply chain disruptions linked to the war in Iran.  
- Month-over-month, producer prices rose by 2.3%, compared to a 1.0% increase in March.

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Japan’s producer prices surge 4.9% in April, marking fastest rise since 2023

Kazuyuki Masu, a Bank of Japan board member, advocates for an early interest rate hike if economic indicators remain stable, amid rising inflation pressures from surging oil costs due to the Middle East conflict. Despite voting to maintain the current rate of 0.75% in April, Masu's comments suggest he may support a hike at the upcoming June meeting. Recent market signals indicate a 70% chance of a rate increase, as inflation concerns push bond yields to a 29-year high. Masu emphasizes the need for timely policy adjustments to manage inflation effectively.

- On May 14, Bank of Japan board member Kazuyuki Masuda indicated that interest rates should be raised promptly unless clear signs of economic slowdown appear, highlighting differing opinions during the April policy meeting.  
- The Bank maintained its policy rate at 0.75% last month, but three out of nine board members advocated for an increase to 1.0%, showing growing concern about inflation pressures due to rising oil prices from the Middle East conflict.  
- Masuda emphasized the importance of timely interest rate hikes to keep potential inflation below 2%, noting that while inflation risks are present, underlying inflation remains just below that threshold.

BOJ board member Masu calls for early rate hike, joins hawkish chorus

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Major Asia-Pacific stock markets showed mixed results, with Japan's Nikkei index reaching a record high of 63,799 before closing at 63,333. South Korea's Kospi rose 0.9%, with a year-to-date gain of 86%. SoftBank Group shares fell 3.5% despite exceeding profit expectations. SK Hynix's market cap nears USD 1 trillion, reflecting a significant rise in its stock price. Analysts noted a strong FOMO sentiment in AI-related stocks across Japan and South Korea. Other regional markets also experienced slight gains or losses, with Indonesia's market closed for a holiday.

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Nikkei Hits Record High; SoftBank Falls Over 3% After Results; S Korea Stocks YTD Up 86%; SK Hynix Mkt Cap Near USD1T

The AI-led market rally continues as investors overlook high interest rates and oil prices above $100. A summit between U.S. President Trump and China's Xi Jinping is underway, focusing on trade and geopolitical tensions, with low expectations from the talks. Asian markets, particularly South Korea and Japan, are performing well, driven by AI investments. Key UK economic data is anticipated, reflecting the impact of the ongoing Iran war on the economy. Prime Minister Starmer faces pressure following local election losses.

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MORNING BID EUROPE-AI rally powers on, Trump-Xi summit takes centre stage

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