FI2 CSOP NIKKEI

Nikkei Futures Open Down 140 Points on Singapore Exchange

Japan's Nikkei Share Average Falls Below 51,000

Nikkei 225 Futures Down 2.4% in Early Trading

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Economist Yoshimasa Maruyama predicts the Nikkei Index could reach 65,000 points by year-end, driven by market momentum and stable governance. He anticipates further growth to 73,000 by 2027 and 80,000 by 2028, but warns that escalating Middle East conflicts could negatively impact asset prices.

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STOCKS | Nikkei Index Could Reach 65,000 by Year-End, Economist Predicts

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Japan's economy grew by an annualized 2.1% in Q1, surpassing forecasts, but faces challenges due to the Iran war's impact on energy supplies. Private consumption rose 0.3%, and net external demand contributed positively. Analysts predict potential contraction in Q2 as energy costs rise, affecting inflation and corporate profits. The Bank of Japan's interest rate hike expectations may shift depending on the severity of supply disruptions.

- Japan's economy grew at an annualized rate of 2.1% in the first quarter, exceeding the market's expected 1.7%.  
- This growth is now threatened by the energy impacts of the Iranian conflict, with analysts predicting a slowdown in future quarters.  
- Private consumption increased by 0.3%, while net external demand contributed 0.3 percentage points to growth, despite rising risks from oil price fluctuations and supply disruptions.

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Japan’s economy grows at solid pace in Q1, but Iran war set to upend momentum

Japan's economy grew at an annualized rate of 2.1% in Q1, supported by consumer and government spending, despite rising energy prices due to the Iran war. Private consumption rose 0.3% quarter-on-quarter. Imports increased by 0.5% and exports by 1.7%. Analysts predict moderate growth driven by spending on AI and defense, while inflation pressures may lead to interest rate hikes. The Nikkei 225 index fell 0.6% amid these developments.

- The Japanese economy grew at an annualised rate of 2.1 percent in the January-March quarter, benefiting from increased consumer and government spending.  
- Despite challenges from soaring oil prices due to the war in Iran, Japan's real GDP grew by 0.5 percent from the previous quarter, marking the second consecutive quarter of growth.  
- Analysts suggest Japan may continue to see moderate growth, influenced by spending on technology and potential interest rate adjustments from the central bank amid rising inflation pressures.

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Japan's economy expands at 2.1% annual pace, boosted by consumer spending

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Bank of Japan's Kazushige Kamiyama warned that while investment funds are crucial for providing risk capital, they also pose risks to the financial system. He noted the growing presence of foreign hedge and private equity funds in Japan, which could lead to increased price volatility in markets. As Japanese institutions lend more to these funds, the risk of external shocks affecting domestic markets rises, highlighting the need for enhanced cooperation among global financial authorities.

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BOJ warns of financial system risks from investment fund activity

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The Bank of Japan (BOJ) maintained its interest rate at 0.75% but three board members proposed a hike to 1.0%, indicating concerns over inflation due to the Middle East conflict. The BOJ revised its inflation forecasts upward and warned of potential inflation overshoot risks. Economists expect a rate hike as early as June, driven by rising inflation expectations and wage increases. The yen rose while the Nikkei fell post-announcement. The BOJ's cautious approach is influenced by the ongoing geopolitical tensions and their impact on economic conditions.

- The Bank of Japan maintained its policy rate at 0.75% but faced dissent from three board members advocating for a rise to 1.0%, reflecting concerns over inflation from Middle Eastern conflicts.  
- The central bank significantly raised its price forecasts while warning of inflation risks, suggesting potential interest rate hikes in the coming months.  
- Market reactions indicated a rising yen and a declining Nikkei index, as attention turned to the impact of geopolitical instability on Japan’s monetary policy trajectory.

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BOJ keeps rates steady but hawkish split points to June hike

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The Nikkei 225 Index reached a record high of ¥60,787, driven by key catalysts this week. The ongoing US-Iran war and its impact on crude oil prices, which hit $107, is a major factor, as Japan relies heavily on energy imports. Additionally, the Bank of Japan's interest rate decision, expected to remain at 0.75%, may lead to a future hike. Important corporate earnings from major Japanese firms, including those backed by Warren Buffett, will also influence the index's performance.

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Top 3 catalysts for the Nikkei 225 Index this week

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Nikkei 225 Index and Seoul Composite Index both opened high by 0.4%

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The NIKKEI 225 Index rose 2.73% this week, closing at 58475.90, marking a gain of 1551.79 points. It has increased for two consecutive weeks, totaling a 10.08% rise over the last fortnight, the largest since October 2025. Despite a 1.75% drop today, it remains the fifth highest close in history and is up 16.16% year-to-date. The index is currently 1.75% off its record high of 59518.34 from April 16, 2026, and has risen 70.88% from its 52-week low.

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Factset Research

NIKKEI 225 Index Rises 2.73% This Week to 58475.90 — Data Talk

Japan's central bank governor, Kazuo Ueda, addressed rising energy prices' impact on inflation and economic risks during a media briefing in Washington. He noted the challenges in formulating policy responses ahead of the April 28 interest rate decision, which will also include updated economic forecasts. Ueda emphasized the importance of achieving a sustained 2% inflation target while acknowledging Japan's low real interest rates and accommodative financial environment. He refrained from signaling specific interest rate changes, highlighting the complexity of the current economic situation.

FI2 CSOP NIKKEI(07515.HK)

STOCKS | Nikkei Index Could Reach 65,000 by Year-End, Economist Predicts

Japan’s economy grows at solid pace in Q1, but Iran war set to upend momentum

Japan's economy expands at 2.1% annual pace, boosted by consumer spending

BOJ warns of financial system risks from investment fund activity

BOJ keeps rates steady but hawkish split points to June hike