I asked Grok to summarize my posts on a potential $Tesla(TSLA.US)/SpaceX merger over the past week, a prospect about which I remain deeply skeptical:

For $Tesla(TSLA.US) bulls hoping for a TSLA/SpaceX merger (in either direction), the math strongly suggests it would be highly dilutive and value-destructive for TSLA shareholders.

- A TSLA acquisition of SpaceX at similar $1.5T valuations would combine the companies at a blended ~100x EV/EBITDA multiple (the lower of the two). This creates an immediate ~20-25% reduction in TSLA value due to the classic “conglomerate discount,” where the market applies the lowest common multiple rather than a blended one. Financial history is full of examples (RJR/Nabisco, GE, Time Warner, Gulf & Western, Sara Lee, Fortune Brands, etc.) where unrelated businesses with different growth profiles and multiples trade lower post-merger.

- The reverse (SpaceX buying TSLA post-IPO) is equally unrealistic. SpaceX IPO buyers would be furious about massive near-term dilution to acquire TSLA, and institutional investors would likely avoid the IPO altogether if that was the plan. Recent precedent like Netflix’s failed Warner Bros. Discovery pursuit (stock dropped ~30%) shows how much shareholders dislike equity-funded acquisitions.

- In my 30 years as a professional investor I have rarely seen post-merger companies trade at “blended multiples” based on the weighted avg of the underlying companies’ respective multiples and growth prospects. With conglomerates, the lowest common multiple generally wins out.

Bottom line: A TSLA/SpaceX merger is a solution in search of a problem. It’s dilutive, would be unpopular with shareholders, and therefore unlikely to happen. The two companies are better off remaining separate and TSLA shareholders who want exposure to SpaceX should just sell a % of their TSLA shares to buy SpaceX shares.

Ownership	%Owned	Share Chg	Report Date
新国投资发展有限公司	29.73%	No Change	28/04/2026
杨卫新	18.26%	No Change	28/04/2026
三牛有限公司	12.4%	No Change	28/04/2026
杨卫国	7.7%	No Change	28/04/2026
杨燿斌	5%	No Change	28/04/2026
招商银行股份有限公司-上证红利交易型开放式指数证券投资基金	1.99%	-6.17 M	28/04/2026
宁波九牛投资咨询有限公司	1.19%	No Change	28/04/2026
香港中央结算有限公司	1.03%	-7.95 M	28/04/2026
中国银行股份有限公司-易方达港股通红利灵活配置混合型证券投资基金	0.66%	No Change	28/04/2026
达孜银泰商业发展有限公司	0.47%	No Change	28/04/2026

BROS(601339.SH)

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