ABNY

1105 ｜Dolphin Focus:

🐬 Macro / Sector

1. In the US midterms, Democrats won both the House and the Senate, boosting odds of a divided government and pushing rates lower as the USD weakened and Treasuries rallied, with both stocks and bonds up. However, tighter oversight concerns on Texas data centers weighed on optical comms and AI compute names. Oil slumped intraday by 10% as the Iran war narrative faded, while gold and silver surged, and the market shifted from an 'AI panic' to a 'policy easing + selective regulation' trade.

2. After the midterm setback, Trump softened his stance on Iran, and VP Vance bluntly said the loss stemmed from the Iran war. Markets priced in de-escalation, with Brent and WTI down over 10% intraday and PetroChina and other energy stocks sliding over 8%. Geopolitical risk premia compressed quickly, though Hormuz shipping risks remain, creating a short-term pullback window for oil, while a durable downtrend is unlikely so long as strait-closure risks persist.

🐬 Single Stocks

1.$JD.com(JD.US)

JD's acquisition of Europe's Ceconomy won EU clearance with conditions, and closing could follow shortly, adding a footprint of thousands of offline 3C stores across Europe. The review proceeded under the Foreign Subsidies Regulation after securing multiple FDI approvals. This deal fills JD's offline retail channel gap in Europe and is critical to its self-operated supply chain overseas, though local compliance and offline ops in Europe still pose notable challenges.

2.$Alibaba(BABA.US)

Apple's latest iOS developer beta opened Apple Intelligence testing in mainland China, with China-market Siri integrating Alibaba's Qwen LLM, and the official release slated for Dec. Alibaba gains a system-level AI entry on iPhones domestically, closing the loop on terminal use cases. Both sides adopt a user opt-in model, balancing compliance and monetization headroom.

3.$BYD(002594.SZ)

vivo and BYD signed a strategic partnership to collaborate on phone–car integration, cross-device AI, digital car keys, and in-car fast charging. By linking the handset and auto ecosystems, compute can flow seamlessly between mobile and vehicle. This further opens the monetization potential of smart mobility scenarios.

4.$Microsoft(MSFT.US)

Microsoft issued $25bn in bonds to fund AI compute capex, continuing to scale Azure cloud and compute infrastructure. Rolling debt issuance to support AI capex is standard for Big Tech. Financing costs will directly shape long-term margins for AI businesses.

5. Dolphin Research on earnings and calls

Qualcomm: 'Qualcomm: Handsets under pressure; AI strength not enough?', 'Qualcomm (Trans): DC ramp begins; non-handset rev. to rise 60%' Coherent: 'Coherent: Growing topline and profits; sprinting into photonics?', 'Coherent (Trans): $20bn LTAs signed; GPM target raised to 45%' AppLovin: '20cm reversal! AppLovin's gaming core remains solid?', 'AppLovin (Trans): New models partially live; LT growth guide 30% unchanged' Meli: 'LatAm's Alibaba, MELI: Broad slowdown; lending increasingly risky?', 'MELI (Trans): 41% growth intact; margins give way to investment' Arm: 'Arm (Trans): AGI CPUs could hit $2bn rev. in two years' Uber: 'Uber: Ride-hail slowing; can Eats hold up?', 'Uber (Trans): Driver supply tight, demand intact; profit growth still widening' Circle: 'Circle: Bloated metrics; with channel heavyweights pushing back, scaling ecosystem is the only path', 'Circle (Trans): CPN expected to contribute meaningful rev. by 2027'

🐬 Top Gainers by Sector

A-shares: Semi materials & equipment, life science tools & services, media.

HK: Video games & multimedia, retailers, internet content & info.

US: Gold, furniture/home improvement retailers, medical devices.

🐬 Watchlist for Tomorrow

1) Iren, ABNB, Monster Bev. to report.

2) US nonfarm payrolls (SA), Avg. hourly earnings (YoY), unemployment rate, and 1-yr inflation expectations (prelim).

Risk disclosure and statement for this article: Dolphin Research disclaimer and general disclosures