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Dollar Surge and Middle East Concerns Lead to Largest Drop in Emerging Market Currencies in Three Years

US Policy Changes Lead to Decline in Emerging Market Currencies and Stocks

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Oil prices surged as Brent crude rose 2% to $106.4 amid faltering ceasefire hopes with Iran, raising supply concerns. Concurrently, Asian currencies like the rupiah, rupee, and peso reached record lows, leading to extensive central bank interventions. In response to LNG supply disruptions from the Gulf conflict, Japan and South Korea increased coal production.

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Oil surge and currency slide hit Asia as Iran ceasefire falters

The NZDUSD currency pair has shown resilience, bouncing off the rising 100-hour moving average at 0.5948, which is now a key support level. After a dip during the Asian-Pacific session, buyers stepped in, pushing the price up to 0.5967. The technical outlook indicates that if buyers can break above the trendline resistance and Friday's high, targets could reach between 0.5983 and 0.5990. Conversely, a drop below 0.5948 would shift focus to lower support levels around 0.5927 to 0.5935.

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NZDUSD bounces off the 100 hour MA at 0.5948 currently.  That is now close support.

South African Reserve Bank Governor Lesetja Kganyago praised the resilience of the rand and other emerging-market currencies amid the Iran conflict. He suggested this trend may indicate a shift away from U.S. assets. As global markets react to geopolitical tensions, investors are reassessing portfolios. Kganyago attributes the strength of emerging-market currencies to their fortitude in crises, signaling a potential change in investor sentiment that could impact the global financial landscape.

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South African Reserve Bank Governor Highlights Rand's Resilience Amid Iran Conflict

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Kiwi Strength Builds as NZDUSD Recovery Continues

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Kiwi Strength Builds as NZDUSD Recovery Continues

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The People's Bank of China (PBOC) is expected to set the USD/CNY reference rate at 6.8414, a key indicator in Asian foreign exchange markets. The PBOC operates a managed floating exchange rate system, allowing the yuan to trade within a 2% band around a daily midpoint. This midpoint is influenced by various factors, including previous closing prices and economic conditions. The fixing serves as a policy signal, indicating the PBOC's stance on currency strength or weakness, especially during global volatility.

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PBOC is expected to set the USD/CNY reference rate at 6.8414 – Reuters estimate

The Australian and New Zealand dollars rose as the US extended a ceasefire with Iran, allowing for further peace talks. The Aussie increased by 0.1% to US$0.7157, while the kiwi rose 0.2% to US$0.5904. Market expectations for a rate hike in New Zealand have also strengthened, with a 51% probability of a quarter-point increase next month. Analysts express concerns about the ongoing situation in the Middle East, which could impact the global economy, but remain hopeful for a resolution soon.

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Australia, New Zealand dollars bounce as US extends ceasefire with Iran

Emerging market currency index gives back percentage gains as investors focus on rising oil prices

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Markets are cautious as currencies show little movement amid US-Iran negotiations over Gulf shipping lanes. The expiration of a ceasefire agreement has investors on alert for any diplomatic breakthroughs. The New Zealand dollar rose 0.4% on strong inflation data, while the Australian dollar eased. Brent crude oil prices fell below $95 a barrel due to improved supply outlooks. Attention is also on a Senate hearing for Kevin Warsh, Trump's Federal Reserve pick, and upcoming retail sales figures, which are expected to show a 1.4% increase. The market mood remains one of cautious anticipation regarding geopolitical developments.

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Currencies Hold Steady Amid US-Iran Negotiations; Kiwi Rises on Inflation Data

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The onshore RMB against the US dollar rose by 68 points today (20th), closing at 6.8195 per US dollar. As of 4:37 PM, the RMB night session fell by 42 points; the offshore RMB dropped by 52 points, trading at 6.8202 per US dollar, which is 7 points lower than the onshore rate

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The RMB spot exchange rate rose by 68 points, reporting 6.8195 against one US dollar

As dollar weakness deepens, hedging reaches a two-year high, prompting a shift towards global, emerging market, and commodity ETFs. Institutional investors are reducing bullish bets on the dollar, with hedge ratios at their highest since 2021. The U.S. Dollar Index has declined, reflecting this rotation. ETFs like the Invesco DB U.S. Dollar Index Bearish Fund and WisdomTree Emerging Currency Strategy Fund are gaining traction. Easing geopolitical tensions and a risk-on environment are driving this trend, with global equity funds seeing strong inflows as investors seek diversification beyond the U.S.

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Wtree Em Curry(CEW.US)

Oil surge and currency slide hit Asia as Iran ceasefire falters

NZDUSD bounces off the 100 hour MA at 0.5948 currently. That is now close support.

South African Reserve Bank Governor Highlights Rand's Resilience Amid Iran Conflict

Kiwi Strength Builds as NZDUSD Recovery Continues

PBOC is expected to set the USD/CNY reference rate at 6.8414 – Reuters estimate