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The IMF has raised its UK growth forecast to 1.0% for this year, up from 0.8%, but cautioned that political instability could hinder spending and investment. Finance minister Rachel Reeves welcomed the upgrade, indicating progress under Prime Minister Keir Starmer. The IMF also noted that inflation may rise to just under 4% but believes the Bank of England can meet its 2% target without rate hikes, provided energy prices decline. Political turmoil has raised market concerns, impacting government borrowing costs.

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IMF raises UK growth forecast but warns of political uncertainty

Manchester mayor Andy Burnham's bid to return to parliament has unsettled traders, causing sterling to drop and gilt yields to spike. Following the resignation of MP Josh Simons, Burnham's potential candidacy has raised concerns among bondholders due to his criticism of the current Labour government's fiscal policies. Sterling fell 0.2% against the US dollar, while ten-year gilt yields rose above 5%. Burnham aims to nationalize key sectors and has proposed maintaining fiscal rules with exceptions for defense spending, but faces hurdles to secure his candidacy and leadership.

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Burnham return attempt spooks bond markets and hits sterling

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BOE Monetary Policy Committee member Mann highlighted the UK's vulnerability to international shocks due to recent geopolitical events. He noted that new financing sources for the UK's current account deficit present complexities. A tighter monetary policy could lead to unintended domestic financial volatility. Mann emphasized that monetary policy cannot mitigate cost-push shocks from energy prices, and the trade-off between inflation and economic activity is becoming more pronounced. His overall tone was hawkish, prioritizing inflation concerns despite acknowledging growth risks.

- Bank of England Monetary Policy Committee member Mann emphasized the rising vulnerability of the UK economy to international shocks due to recent geopolitical events, necessitating a policy response.  
- He highlighted the complexities surrounding new financing sources and their impact on the UK's current account deficit, warning that tighter policy could trigger volatility in domestic financial conditions.  
- Mann noted that monetary policy cannot offset cost-push shocks from energy prices, making the trade-off between inflation and economic activity increasingly evident.

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BOE Mann : Recent geopolitical events have reinforced how exposed the UK economy is

UK shares fell on Tuesday amid political uncertainty surrounding Prime Minister Keir Starmer and escalating tensions in the Middle East. The FTSE 100 dropped 0.4% and the FTSE 250 fell 1.2%. Starmer faced pressure from over 80 Labour lawmakers to announce a resignation timeline, but he insisted on remaining in office. The ongoing Middle East conflict, particularly the lack of progress in negotiations, further weighed on investor sentiment. Banking stocks led the decline, with the UK banking index down 2.3%. Government borrowing costs rose sharply, reflecting growing investor caution.

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UK shares fall as Starmer faces pressure amid Middle East tensions

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British government debt has sharply declined amid speculation that Prime Minister Keir Starmer may face a leadership challenge or resign. The yield on the 10-year U.K. government bond rose to 5.09%, while the 30-year gilt yield increased to 5.77%. The British pound fell 0.5% to $1.3537, and the FTSE 100 index dropped 0.9%. Starmer is under pressure following local election losses, with 73 Labour MPs calling for his resignation, raising concerns about potential aggressive spending policies from a new prime minister.

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With Keir Starmer premiership on the brink, British government debt tumbles further

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House prices in the UK have declined again, with the average price falling to £299,313 in April from £299,609 in March. The annual growth rate slowed to 0.4% from 0.8%. Higher energy prices and inflation are impacting the housing market, leading to increased mortgage rates. The Bank of England is expected to raise interest rates, potentially reaching 5.25%, as inflation is projected to exceed 6%. Despite these challenges, the housing market remains relatively stable, supported by wage growth outpacing house price inflation.

- Year-on-year, UK house prices rose at a slower rate of 0.4% in April, down from 0.8% in March, with the average price falling to £299,313.  
- The Halifax survey indicates a decline in prices due to rising inflation and higher mortgage rates amid geopolitical tensions affecting fuel costs.  
- The Bank of England is expected to raise interest rates in response to these developments, potentially reversing recent cuts, though the housing market remains described as resilient by Halifax.

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House prices slip again as energy price rises fuel inflation

Businesses in the UK have cut jobs for 19 consecutive months due to higher payroll costs and productivity gains, particularly in the services sector. Despite this, business activity increased in April, with the S&P Global PMI indicating growth. However, input price inflation is at its highest since November 2022, leading to concerns about rising costs for consumers. Economists suggest that the Bank of England may consider raising interest rates in response to these inflation indicators, although the overall economic outlook remains cautious due to potential impacts from the ongoing geopolitical situation.

- The UK has experienced job cuts for 19 consecutive months, primarily in the services sector due to rising payroll costs and lower productivity gains.  
- Despite this trend, the PMI readings indicated increased business activity and the employment metric reached its strongest level since November 2025, suggesting modest growth.  
- Economists warn that rising inflation could lead the Bank of England to consider interest rate hikes, although potential economic deterioration may limit the duration of such increases.

Businesses cut jobs for 19 consecutive months yet ‘growth holds up’

The S&P Global UK services PMI survey showed a reading of 52.7 in April, up from 50.5 the previous month.

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UK services industry faces 'short-lived' rebound as costs rise sharply

The Renters' Rights Act, effective May 1, 2026, bans no-fault evictions and ends fixed-term tenancy contracts, allowing tenants to stay indefinitely with two months' notice for moving out. Landlords can only increase rent once a year with two months' notice and must provide legal grounds for eviction. The law also restricts advance rent payments and deposit sizes. Violations can result in fines up to £40,000. Many landlords are reportedly selling properties in response to these changes, fearing increased liabilities and reduced flexibility.

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Renters’ rights act: what does it mean for landlords, rent hikes, tenants and no-fault evictions?

Tory leader Kemi Badenoch predicts that Labour's Rachel Reeves will be ousted as Chancellor after the May elections, amid warnings from traders about the risks of a leftward shift in Labour's fiscal policy. Analysts from Jefferies highlight that upcoming elections could significantly impact UK asset prices and government borrowing costs. Political turmoil may lead to increased pressure on Labour to adopt a more expansionary fiscal stance, regardless of leadership outcomes. Badenoch criticized Starmer's record on welfare and defense, while Starmer defended his government's achievements.

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Badenoch claims Reeves will be ousted as traders warn on Labour’s turn to left

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