0319 | Dolphin Research Focus

🐬 Macro/Industries

1. On Mar 18 (ET), the Fed held the policy rate at 3.50%-3.75%. The latest dot plot now implies just one cut in 2026 (25bp), a sharp pullback from the prior 2-3 cuts. At the press conference, Chair Powell struck a hawkish tone, noting that the Middle East-driven oil spike is feeding into core inflation. He also said if a successor is not confirmed in time, he would stay on as acting chair. With rate-cut hopes fading, markets even fretted about a non-zero risk of a hike. Middle East geopolitics has become a black swan blocking Fed easing, and all three major U.S. indices fell.

🐬 Stocks

1. $XIAOMI-W(01810.HK)

In the early hours of Mar 19, Xiaomi rolled out a 'triple update' to its MiMo LLM suite: the flagship base model MiMo-V2-Pro (trillion parameters, 1mn-token context), the all-modal agent model MiMo-V2-Omni (text/image/video/audio), and the TTS model MiMo-V2-TTS (supports nuanced emotion and dialect/singing synthesis). Together they form a full 'think–sense–express' stack, already integrated across phones, autos, and office apps, with APIs priced at just one-fifth of global giants. This marks Xiaomi’s pivot from a hardware maker to an AI-native company.

2. $AMD(AMD.US)

Samsung Electronics and AMD signed an MoU to explore a foundry partnership focused on tech synergies and capacity complementarity in semi manufacturing. Samsung aims to leverage AMD’s high-end chip design know-how to refine its foundry processes, while AMD could gain access to Samsung’s advanced nodes, easing global foundry capacity tightness. This should support both in core markets such as PC and data centers. Near term, watch for tech fit and ramp progress.

3. $NONGFU SPRING(09633.HK)

Nongfu Spring’s plant at the Jiaozi Snow Mountain water source in Yunnan has started production, focusing on natural drinking water and tapping premium local sources with smart manufacturing lines. The new capacity strengthens its nationwide source footprint, boosts supply in Southwest China, and alleviates regional logistics costs, laying the groundwork for future product expansion. Given solid growth potential in the region’s water market, the ramp should help capture lower-tier demand and reinforce its industry leadership.

4. $Coinbase(COIN.US)

Coinbase is vying with Cloudflare for a partnership to issue a stablecoin tailored to AI payment scenarios. The coin would target AI service transactions and compute settlement, aiming to address efficiency and security pain points in AI payments and bridge crypto with the AI value chain. Execution and ecosystem integration will be key to adoption.

5. Dolphin Research on earnings and call Trans

Tencent: 'Tencent: Time to shed old habits and turn up the heat on AI', 'Tencent (Trans): Clear opportunity to ramp AI spend, likely to impact margins and buybacks'

Micron: 'Micron MU: AI-fueled memory boom — can it break the cycle?', 'Micron (Trans): Demand commitments intact; signed first 5-year agreement', 'Micron (Analyst huddle): Capex may decline after FY2027'

HUAZHU: 'HUAZHU: After a reset and rebound, how long can the A-student status last?', 'HUAZHU (Trans): Continuing brand-led, high-quality growth'

Alibaba and Horizon report tonight.

🐬 Top Gainers

A-shares: Oil & gas E&P, integrated oil & gas, food distributors.

HK: Oil & gas E&P, healthcare services, coal & consumable fuels.

U.S.: Seaport operators, industrial chemicals, independent power and renewable IPPs.

🐬 Watchlist for Tomorrow

1. XPeng to report earnings.

2. China 1-yr LPR due Mar 20.

Disclosure: Dolphin Research Disclaimer and General Disclosure