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Long-term US Treasury Yields Hit 2025 High Amid Inflation Fears and Weak Auction Demand

Investors Weigh US-Iran Tensions and Watch Inflation Data

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The Iran war has led to G7 bond yields nearing 5%, the highest since 2004, increasing global borrowing costs. Economists predict the Federal Reserve may raise rates to combat inflation, potentially slowing growth. Additionally, the UAE's exit from OPEC+ indicates significant shifts in energy policy amid rising regional tensions.

- Iran's war disruptions have caused G7 bond yields to approach 5%, the highest level since 2004, leading to increased global borrowing costs.  
- Economists are warning that the Federal Reserve may need to raise interest rates significantly to address growing inflation expectations, potentially slowing economic growth.  
- The UAE's exit from OPEC+ indicates a shift in Gulf alliances and suggests lasting changes in energy policy amid escalating regional tensions.

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Iran war fuels inflation fears as bond yields hit highs

Oil prices and bond yields surged following Trump's rejection of Iran's peace plan, raising concerns about long-term inflation. Meanwhile, G7 finance chiefs convene in Paris to discuss debt, inflation, and energy security amid escalating geopolitical tensions. The US is considering military options as indirect negotiations with Iran persist without progress.

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Oil and bond yields jump as US rejects Iran offer

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Treasury yields edged lower in overnight trade as oil prices eased, but overall remained at elevated levels.

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US Treasury yields decline as investors await Middle East resolution

US stocks closed mixed with the Dow up 0.32% while the S&P and Nasdaq fell. Trump paused a planned attack on Iran, responding to requests from Middle Eastern leaders, which caused market volatility. Oil prices fluctuated significantly, and US yields were also volatile. The EURUSD reached session highs, while GBPUSD rebounded after early losses. Overall, geopolitical tensions influenced market movements.

- US stocks closed mixed, with the Dow rising while the S&P and Nasdaq fell.  
- Key events included a jury ruling against Elon Musk and a report of false claims regarding US oil sanctions.  
- Amid geopolitical developments, Iran's nuclear freeze proposal and Trump's cancellation of a planned attack on Iran affected market volatility, including fluctuations in crude oil prices and US yields.

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investingLive Americas FX news wrap 18 May: Trump pauses Iran attack, markets whip

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The 30-year Treasury yield increased to 5.146%, marking a rise of 0.019 percentage points. This is the highest yield since July 17, 2007, and reflects a gain of 0.134 percentage points over the last two trading days. The yield has risen in five of the past six trading days and is up 0.608 percentage points from its 52-week low. Year-to-date, the yield has increased by 0.317 percentage points.

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30-Year Treasury Yield Rises to 5.146% — Data Talk

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The bond market is signaling the Federal Reserve to take inflation seriously and consider rate hikes before the June meeting. Treasury yields have surged, with the 2-year yield exceeding 4%, indicating concerns over inflation and geopolitical tensions. Analysts suggest that if the Fed does not adopt a hawkish tone soon, it may lead to increased inflation risk premiums and a steeper yield curve. Upcoming Treasury auctions and inflation readings are critical as Wall Street anticipates Fed communications in the lead-up to the meeting.

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The bond market has a warning for the Fed: Get serious about inflation and potential rate hikes ASAP

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U.S. stocks have declined modestly, continuing the losses from last Friday. The Dow is down 31.48 points (0.1%), the S&P 500 is down 22.24 points (0.3%), and the Nasdaq is down 166.19 points (0.6%), as all major averages pull back from record highs amid rising crude oil prices and treasury yields.

- Stocks have declined modestly in trading on Monday, following significant losses from last Friday.  
- The Dow is down 31.48 points (0.1 percent), the S&P 500 is down 22.24 points (0.3 percent), and the Nasdaq is down 166.19 points (0.6 percent).  
- These movements reflect a continued pullback after reaching record highs.

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Morgan Stanley warns of a potential 'meaningful correction' in the stock market due to a bond selloff, with the S&P 500 down 1% since its recent high. The 10-year Treasury yield has reached 4.58%, the highest since February 2025. Analysts expect equity prices to correct if rates continue to rise, influenced by the U.S.-Iran war and rising oil prices. Despite this, Morgan Stanley maintains a bullish long-term outlook, raising its 12-month S&P 500 target to 8,300.

- The S&P 500 has decreased by 1% since reaching a new record high, influenced by rising bond yields, with the 10-year Treasury yield at 4.58%.  
- Analysts from Morgan Stanley warn that if rates continue to rise, a significant correction in equity prices might occur, particularly due to the U.S.-Iran war's impact on oil and inflation risks.  
- Despite short-term concerns, Morgan Stanley maintains a bullish long-term outlook, raising its 12-month price target for the S&P 500 to 8,300 and its 2026 year-end price target to 8,000.

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Stock Market Faces 'Meaningful Correction' Risk from Bond Selloff, Warns Morgan Stanley

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Bitcoin has dropped to $77,000 as rising crude oil prices and Treasury yields exert pressure on risk assets. The 30-year Treasury yield reached 5.13%, the highest since 2007, while the 10-year yield hit a 12-month high of 4.59%. Analysts note that higher yields increase the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets like Bitcoin. The broader cryptocurrency market is also declining, with Ethereum, Solana, and XRP each down over 1%. Bitcoin is now nearly 40% below its all-time high of $126,000 from last October.

- Bitcoin (BTC) has dropped to $77,000 as rising crude oil prices and Treasury yields pressure risk assets, with the U.S. 30-year Treasury yield at its highest since 2007.  
- The increase in bond yields raises the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets like Bitcoin, contributing to its decline alongside other cryptocurrencies such as Ethereum and Solana.  
- Analysts highlight the challenge for cryptocurrencies to stabilize amid rising inflation and sustained high interest rates, with Bitcoin down nearly 40% from its all-time high of $126,000.

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Bitcoin Falls To $77,000 As Oil And Treasury Yields Rise

A correlation exists between wage share and equilibrium interest rates, suggesting that rising bond yields may be overstated. Dario Perkins from TS Lombard notes that while AI adoption could reduce worker power and wage share, the impact on bond yields will depend on whether employees or employers capture productivity gains. As the U.S. 30-year bond yield reaches a 19-year high, this relationship offers insights for fixed-income investors.

This chart shows why AI will eventually mean lower bond yields

iShares 7-10 Year Treasury Bond ETF(IEF.US)

Iran war fuels inflation fears as bond yields hit highs

Oil and bond yields jump as US rejects Iran offer

US Treasury yields decline as investors await Middle East resolution

investingLive Americas FX news wrap 18 May: Trump pauses Iran attack, markets whip

30-Year Treasury Yield Rises to 5.146% — Data Talk