0312 ｜Dolphin Research Focus

🐬 Macro / Sector

1. US core CPI rose in Feb in line with expectations, with inflation pressures easing before the latest escalation in the Middle East, offering the Fed a window of policy stability. This should temporarily calm fears of further hikes and runaway inflation. However, higher oil on Middle East tensions raises the risk of a rebound in inflation, keeping the Fed's cuts contingent on geopolitics, and volatility in global risk assets may persist.

2. The Trump administration launched a Section 301 investigation under the US Trade Act of 1974 into 16 economies, including China, the EU, Japan, India, Vietnam and Mexico, focusing on trade surpluses, subsidies and manufacturing capacity, laying the groundwork for new tariffs. This is viewed as a fresh round of US protectionism. It will disrupt global supply chains and raise trade costs, and the targeted economies will likely retaliate.

🐬 Single Names

1.$NVIDIA(NVDA.US)

Per filings with the SEC, NVIDIA plans to invest $26bn over the next five years (~RMB 178.8bn) to advance open-source AI foundation models. This signals a shift from a chip vendor to a full-stack AI ecosystem, lowering barriers for developers globally and accelerating AI adoption.

2.$Apple(AAPL.US)

Apple's new entry-level MacBook Neo went on sale Wed, positioned as an affordable thin-and-light for students and office users, broadening the Mac's reach with a friendlier price. The Neo fills a mainstream price tier, supporting share gains in PCs. As an entry product, performance and features are restrained, aiming for volume.

3.$Uber Tech(UBER.US)

Nissan, Uber and UK AV startup Wayve announced a collaboration to combine auto manufacturing, ride-hailing operations and AV tech to develop Robotaxi services. Leveraging complementary strengths should speed commercialization of autonomy and cut R&D and operating costs.

4. Li Auto reports earnings tonight. Dolphin Research will track and publish an analysis.

🐬 Leaders by Sector

SSE/SZSE: leadership came from diversified chemicals and coal & consumable fuels. Ag machinery also outperformed.

HK: ag machinery and oil & gas refining & marketing led. Diversified chemicals were also among top gainers.

US: aluminum and oil & gas refining & marketing led. Fertilizers & agrochemicals also outperformed.

🐬 Watch for Tomorrow

1. US Jan personal spending MoM and core PCE MoM/YoY. Also watch Q4 real GDP SAAR (rev.) and the preliminary 1-yr inflation expectations for Mar.

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