Tradr 2X Long STX Daily ETF (STXX.US) Stock Forum, Discussions & Community Posts

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Fattycat

BABA Diamond Holder

Go Beyond!1 day ago, 08:26 AM

$Seagate Tech(STX.US)

🤔 Is Seagate (STX) Too Pricey to Buy Now?

I came across a post about Seagate and decided to dig deeper as I am always on the hunt for value stocks!

Here is what I found:

🔷The Turnaround Story Is Impressive

1️⃣ FY2026 revenue: US$12.2B

2️⃣ Gross margin surged from 32.9% → 52.3% in just 8 quarters 🚀

3️⃣ Free cash flow: ~US$3.1B ✅

But the Stock Has Rerated Hard and I realise that there is NO Margin of Safety ⚠️

At US$798.61, Seagate trades at 56x trailing P/E and 23.3x forward P/E.

There is effectively no margin of safety here. A margin of safety means buying at a discount to intrinsic value to protect you if things go slightly wrong, no buffer to protect you. The current share price already assumes perfect execution.

🔷 Compared to peers:

• Western Digital: 22.7x forward P/E

• Micron: 13.2x

• SanDisk: 7.1x

• Seagate: 23.3x — 🏆 the highest of the group!

On EV/Operating Income, the gap is even clearer:

Seagate at 42.8x 🏆 ,

Western Digital at 34.3x

Micron and SanDisk at just 17.9x.

So yes, Seagate is trading at a clear premium and that premium leaves no room for error.😔

🔷 The Big Question: Can Earnings Justify the Price?

The market is already pricing in a strong FY2027. The consensus EPS is around US$34.33. If EPS reaches US$38–41.50, the valuation becomes more reasonable.

But here’s the risk: because there’s no margin of safety, any earnings miss has an oversized impact.

Currently, STX is down 30% from June’s US$1,144 peak. It looks cheaper than before but it is not exactly cheap based on the valuation ratio compare to peers.

Great business momentum but expensive valuation with very high expectations already built in plus and no margin of safety to fall back on.

Would you buy STX at US$798 or wait for a better entry point that offers a real margin of safety? 👇

Not financial advice. Do your own DD.

C

CLuo2 days ago, 05:41 PM

$Seagate Tech(STX.US)

Context: STX has pulled back quite a bit recently, but I don’t think the core story has changed. Cloud storage demand is still strong, HAMR is starting to become a bigger part of the business, and Seagate already has a lot of its nearline capacity spoken for well into 2028. The balance sheet is also in much better shape now, with the company back at investment grade.

My trade: I’m keeping my core position. At this point, I care a lot more about whether demand, margins and free cash flow stay strong than what the stock does over the next few weeks.

Takeaway: What I’m watching now is whether Seagate can keep margins above 50% as HAMR continues to scale. If it can, then I think the long-term story is still very much intact despite the recent pullback.

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C

CP

NVIDIA

Enduring value guardianAug 20 at 04:20 AM

This is biotech breaking out. Cancer mRNA going Phase 3 successful is a decade of R&D paying off. In chips, buybacks beat capex, so $Micron Tech(MU.US) and $Sandisk(SNDK.US) win while laggards like $Seagate Tech(STX.US) get sold.

C

Captain's Watch

Featured☕️ [Task Coins Giveaway] Daily Market Talk — Moderna Soars 177% on Landmark Cancer Vaccine Win

Moderna had its best day ever Wednesday: shares soared 177% after its melanoma vaccine, developed with Merck, became the first mRNA cancer therapy to succeed in a Phase 3 trial. Merck rose alongside i...

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CLuoAug 18 at 08:38 AM

$Western Digital(WDC.US)

Context: Western Digital trades at a persistent valuation discount to Seagate despite sitting inside the exact same enterprise hard drive duopoly. Cloud demand for high capacity nearline drives is driving gross margin expansion, yet stock market pricing still lags behind fundamental cash flow generation.

My trade: Holding my shares and letting the valuation gap close.

Takeaway: Buying unsexy infrastructure bottlenecks at a discount is my favorite way to compound capital.

Trade Showcase: Trade, Show & Earn Rewards!

C

CLuoAug 13 at 05:07 PM

$Seagate Tech(STX.US)

Seagate has surged over 460% in the past year, driven by AI infrastructure demand, HAMR, and tight capacity through 2026. The business and free cash flow are strong, but with a P/E above 60 and insiders selling millions in shares, the valuation leaves little room for error.

I like the story, but at these levels, there’s simply no margin of safety. I’m not adding here.

@Captain's Treasure

Trade Showcase: Trade, Show & Earn Rewards!

H

Hardik ShahAug 10 at 10:46 AM

📊 𝐈𝐍𝐕𝐄𝐒𝐓𝐎𝐑 𝐍𝐎𝐓𝐄: Cantor Says Semiconductor Selloff Is "Overdone," Reiterates AI Bullish View

$Micron Tech(MU.US) $Sandisk(SNDK.US) $Western Digital(WDC.US) $Seagate Tech(STX.US) $NVIDIA(NVDA.US) $Broadcom(AVGO.US) $AMD(AMD.US) $ASML(ASML.US) $Applied Materials(AMAT.US) $Lam Research(LRCX.US) $KLA(KLAC.US) $Teradyne(TER.US) $Lumentum(LITE.US) $Coreweave(CRWV.US) $Super Micro Computer(SMCI.US), $Coherent Corp.(COHR.US) $Cerebras(CBRS.US)

👉 𝗞𝗲𝘆 𝗛𝗶𝗴𝗵𝗹𝗶𝗴𝗵𝘁𝘀:

➤ 𝗖𝗮𝗻𝘁𝗼𝗿 says the recent semiconductor selloff is 𝗼𝘃𝗲𝗿𝗱𝗼𝗻𝗲.

➤ 𝗦𝗢𝗫 fell about 𝟯𝟬% peak-to-trough versus 𝟯% for the S&P 500.

➤ Semiconductor stocks rebounded with 𝗦𝗢𝗫 up 𝟭𝟮% this week.

➤ Firm recommends 𝗮𝗴𝗴𝗿𝗲𝘀𝘀𝗶𝘃𝗲𝗹𝘆 adding positions in semiconductor stocks.

➤ Cantor views the 𝗔𝗜 𝗶𝗻𝗳𝗿𝗮𝘀𝘁𝗿𝘂𝗰𝘁𝘂𝗿𝗲 buildout as durable and long-term.

➤ Top sector preference is 𝗠𝗲𝗺𝗼𝗿𝘆/𝗦𝘁𝗼𝗿𝗮𝗴𝗲, followed by Compute and Semi Cap Equipment.

➤ Top memory picks are 𝗠𝗶𝗰𝗿𝗼𝗻 (MU) and 𝗦𝗮𝗻𝗗𝗶𝘀𝗸 (SNDK).

➤ Preferred AI compute names are 𝗡𝗩𝗜𝗗𝗜𝗔, 𝗕𝗿𝗼𝗮𝗱𝗰𝗼𝗺, and 𝗔𝗠𝗗.

➤ Key upcoming catalysts include 𝗔𝗠𝗔𝗧 earnings and 𝗦𝗮𝗻𝗗𝗶𝘀𝗸 Investor Day.

👉 𝗪𝗵𝘆 𝗧𝗵𝗶𝘀 𝗠𝗮𝘁𝘁𝗲𝗿𝘀:

➤ Signals improving sentiment toward AI and semiconductor stocks after a sharp correction.

➤ Highlights continued confidence in long-term AI infrastructure spending.

➤ Identifies sectors and companies analysts believe offer the strongest recovery potential.

👉 𝗘𝘅𝗽𝗲𝗿𝘁 𝗦𝘁𝗮𝘁𝗲𝗺𝗲𝗻𝘁:

𝗖𝗮𝗻𝘁𝗼𝗿:

"After a massive drawdown over the last 5+ weeks (with SOX down ~30% peak to trough vs. S&P 500 -3%), Semiconductor stocks have finally caught a bid (SOX +12% this week vs. S&P500 +3%). We would be adding to positions aggressively as we view today's AI Infrastructure buildout as durable and elongated though recognize the rate of change from here is important too and that data points are no longer going to be uniformly positive. Thus, selectivity will matter. But with peak to trough declines of 32% for SMID Cap SPE, 27% for memory, 25% for Analog, and 24% for Large Cap SPE, we view the selloff as overdone. Our rank order of preference remains Memory/ Storage, then Compute, and then SPE. Our Top Picks are MU & SNDK in Memory, WDC & STX in Storage, NVDA, AVGO, & AMD in AI Compute, and ASML, AMAT, LRCX, KLAC, TER, MKSI, & ONTO in Semi Cap. Potential Catalysts: Earnings season continues with reports from covered companies CAMT and AMAT. SNDK is also hosting its Investor Day Thursday. Other key reports include LITE, CRWV, SMCI, COHR, and CBRS."

C

CLuoAug 6 at 10:12 AM

$Seagate Tech(STX.US)

Today's selloff looks more like broad tech panic than anything company-specific. I think the market is ignoring a strong Q4, with revenue up 49% and record margins, while pricing macro fears above the cash the business is generating.

From my view, storage fundamentals remain solid. Data center demand is keeping supply tight, customers are locking in orders well ahead, and Seagate is executing its high-capacity roadmap as planned. That supports pricing power and gives good revenue visibility.

I see this as a gap between sentiment and fundamentals. I focus on long-term earning power, not short-term price action. If free cash flow stays strong while the stock gets cheaper, the margin of safety only improves.

@Captain's Treasure

Trade Showcase: Trade, Show & Earn Rewards!

C

Captain's TreasureAug 5 at 10:05 AM

Storage Is King? The Options Market Prices SanDisk's Earnings Night at ±15%

SanDisk just jumped 10.84% into tonight's earnings, and the options market is still pricing a ±15% swing with no clear direction — here's what the data actually says.

+3

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Hardik ShahAug 4 at 08:26 PM

📢 𝗝𝗨𝗦𝗧 𝗜𝗡: Samsung Unveils Next-Generation AI Memory Technology With BV-NAND Prototype - $Micron Tech(MU.US) $SK Hynix(SKHY.US) $Sandisk(SNDK.US) $Western Digital(WDC.US) $Seagate Tech(STX.US)

👉 𝗞𝗲𝘆 𝗛𝗶𝗴𝗵𝗹𝗶𝗴𝗵𝘁𝘀:

➤ 𝗦𝗮𝗺𝘀𝘂𝗻𝗴 introduced its next-generation 𝗔𝗜 𝗺𝗲𝗺𝗼𝗿𝘆 technology at FMS 2026.

➤ Company unveiled its 𝗩𝟭𝟬 𝗕𝗼𝗻𝗱𝗶𝗻𝗴 𝗩-𝗡𝗔𝗡𝗗 (𝗕𝗩-𝗡𝗔𝗡𝗗) prototype.

➤ Prototype features more than 𝟰𝟬𝟬 𝗹𝗮𝘆𝗲𝗿𝘀 and a new wafer-bonding architecture.

➤ New design is intended to increase 𝗺𝗲𝗺𝗼𝗿𝘆 𝗱𝗲𝗻𝘀𝗶𝘁𝘆 and boost performance.

➤ Samsung says wafer-bonding technology delivers 𝟯𝘅 higher energy efficiency.

➤ Company says the technology also reduces 𝘁𝗵𝗲𝗿𝗺𝗮𝗹 𝗿𝗲𝘀𝗶𝘀𝘁𝗮𝗻𝗰𝗲.

➤ Launch targets growing demand for high-performance 𝗔𝗜 𝗺𝗲𝗺𝗼𝗿𝘆.

➤ Announcement was made at the 𝗙𝘂𝘁𝘂𝗿𝗲 𝗼𝗳 𝗠𝗲𝗺𝗼𝗿𝘆 𝗮𝗻𝗱 𝗦𝘁𝗼𝗿𝗮𝗴𝗲 conference.

👉 𝗪𝗵𝘆 𝗧𝗵𝗶𝘀 𝗠𝗮𝘁𝘁𝗲𝗿𝘀:

➤ Strengthens Samsung's push to maintain leadership in the AI memory market.

➤ Higher-density, more efficient NAND could support next-generation AI infrastructure.

➤ Improved energy efficiency may reduce power and cooling costs for AI data centers.

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Hardik ShahAug 4 at 03:26 PM

📢 𝗝𝗨𝗦𝗧 𝗜𝗡: NVIDIA Open Sources cuFile APIs, Expands AI Storage Innovation at FMS 2026 - $NVIDIA(NVDA.US) $Micron Tech(MU.US)

👉 𝗞𝗲𝘆 𝗛𝗶𝗴𝗵𝗹𝗶𝗴𝗵𝘀:

➤ 𝗡𝗩𝗜𝗗𝗜𝗔 open sources 𝗰𝘂𝗙𝗶𝗹𝗲 APIs for direct GPU-to-storage access.

➤ GPUs can now access storage directly through 𝗚𝗣𝗨𝗗𝗶𝗿𝗲𝗰𝘁 𝗦𝘁𝗼𝗿𝗮𝗴𝗲.

➤ 𝗩𝗲𝗿𝗮 CPU delivers up to 𝟯.𝟮𝟭𝘅 higher throughput than x86 CPUs.

➤ NVIDIA launched 𝗦𝘁𝗼𝗿𝗮𝗴𝗲-𝗡𝗲𝘅𝘁 with over 𝟰𝟬 storage industry partners.

➤ Partners include 𝗗𝗗𝗡, 𝗞𝗜𝗢𝗫𝗜𝗔, and 𝗠𝗶𝗰𝗿𝗼𝗻.

➤ NVIDIA introduced 𝗦𝗖𝗔𝗗𝗔 for accelerated, secure AI data access.

➤ SCADA enables GPUs to retrieve only required data from storage.

➤ NVIDIA 𝗦𝗧𝗫 integrates the unified 𝗗𝗢𝗖𝗔 security stack for AI data.

➤ 𝗖𝗠𝗫 𝗖𝗼𝗻𝘁𝗲𝘅𝘁 𝗠𝗲𝗺𝗼𝗿𝘆 𝗦𝘁𝗼𝗿𝗮𝗴𝗲 supports long-context AI inference.

👉 𝗪𝗵𝘆 𝗧𝗵𝗶𝘀 𝗠𝗮𝘁𝘁𝗲𝗿𝘀:

➤ Reduces AI storage bottlenecks as larger models demand faster data access.

➤ Strengthens NVIDIA's AI infrastructure ecosystem beyond GPUs.

➤ Open-source cuFile could accelerate industry-wide AI storage innovation.

➤ Supports faster, more secure AI inference for enterprise and AI factories.

👉 𝗘𝘅𝗽𝗲𝗿𝘁 𝗦𝘁𝗮𝘁𝗲𝗺𝗲𝗻𝘁:

𝗦𝘃𝗲𝗻 𝗢𝗲𝗵𝗺𝗲, Chief Technology Officer at DDN:

“AI success will be defined not by how much infrastructure organizations own, but by how productively they use it. Our collaboration with NVIDIA is helping create a more direct, efficient connection between GPUs and data — keeping accelerated computing resources productive, speeding time to insight and enabling customers to achieve stronger business and financial returns from their AI investments.”