0511 ｜Dolphin Focus

🐬 Macro/Industry

1. U.S. President Trump will pay a state visit to China on May 13–15, the first U.S. presidential visit in nine years. The summit has strategic significance, helping manage differences and stabilize U.S.-China ties, adding global certainty. Watch potential near-term catalysts and longer-term impacts on asset prices from trade and tech interactions.

2. Iran-U.S. talks deteriorated as Iran demanded oil sanctions be lifted within 30 days and asserted control over the Strait of Hormuz; Trump called this 'totally unacceptable', escalating tensions in the Persian Gulf. WTI rose while gold fell. Soaring Middle East geopolitical risk is lifting energy prices and inflation expectations in the near term, benefiting oil & gas and safe-haven gold while pressuring growth stocks. Global market volatility is likely to pick up.

3. NBS data: Apr CPI +0.3% MoM, +1.2% YoY, turning positive; PPI +2.8% YoY, +1.7% MoM, with wider gains, driven by higher intl oil, domestic industrial demand recovery, and holiday services. A mild CPI recovery alongside a strong PPI rebound signals improving demand and supply, with better industrial profit expectations. Energy and services led while food lagged, pointing to modest imported inflation without overheating risk. This preserves room for monetary policy and supports cyclicals and consumption recovery.

🐬 Single Stocks

1.$Alphabet(GOOGL.US)

Alphabet plans its first JPY bond after a EUR deal, funding AI compute infrastructure; 2026 capex guidance was raised to $180–190 bn. Diversified funding locks in low-cost capital and underscores big tech's AI commitment. As the global AI arms race intensifies, compute and capital moats are widening, likely squeezing smaller players.

2.$BABA-W(09988.HK)

Qianwen app is now integrated across all Taobao categories, and Taobao launched the 'Qianwen AI Shopping Assistant', closing the loop from recommendation to after-sales. This marks a deep integration of a hyperscale e-com platform with an LLM. It should lift user experience and conversion efficiency, further strengthening the ecosystem moat.

3.$KUAISHOU-W(01024.HK)

Kuaishou announced management changes: former ecommerce lead Kong Hui returned to the commercialization org, and Wang Jianwei formally took over ecommerce. The focus is on better coordination and monetization, aligning with the dual strategy of content-led and shelf-based ecommerce. The reshuffle clarifies accountability and tightens the link between ecommerce and ads, fitting the 'content + shelf' industry trend. Wang's commercialization track record could accelerate ecommerce growth; watch for GMV and take-rate/monetization improvement.

4.$BIDU-SW(09888.HK)

Create 2026, BIDU's AI developer conference, will be held in Beijing on May 13–14. Ahead of this, BIDU rolled out ERNIE 5.1, with pretraining cost at just 6% of the industry benchmark, topping LMArena domestically.

5. Circle reports earnings tonight.

🐬 Top Gainers

A-share: industrial gases; semi materials & equipment; security & alarm services.

HK: trading & payment services; investment services and holding cos.; electronic components.

U.S.: drug retailers; commercial & residential mortgage finance; motorcycle makers.

🐬 Watch Tomorrow

1. TME, Sea, and JD report earnings.

2. China Apr M2 YoY; China Apr CPI YoY.

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