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Bond trading is almost done, but stock pricing is not yet clear.

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Where is the "Trump Trade" heading?

Investors Weigh Middle East Peace Hopes and Fed Rate Hike Risks, Boosting Dollar and Lowering Oil Prices

Strong Data and Fed Policy Shift Push Dollar Index Above 99.00

May 14 NY Close: ICE and Bloomberg Dollar Indices Rise, USD/JPY Oscillates Upward

Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index Hits Intraday High After US Data Release

US producer prices surge, fueling dollar rally and reducing Fed rate cut expectations

CPI data exceeds expectations with core inflation rate reaching 2.8%

Dollar Rises Against Major Trading Partner Currencies

US CPI expected to rise to 3.7%, Core Inflation to 2.7%

USD/CAD Rises Towards 1.3700 on Middle East Tensions and Strong US Jobs Data

Trump Rejects Iran's Peace Proposal Leading to Escalating Geopolitical Tensions

US April Non-Farm Payrolls Expected to Drop Sharply

US Q1 Labor Productivity Growth Slows and Central Banks' Interest Rate Policies

China's Foreign Exchange Reserves Rose to $341.05 Billion by End of April 2026

PBOC sets USD/CNY benchmark at 6.8087

US-Iran Military Conflict Affects Asian Currency Rates

Fed Keeps Rates Steady Amid Market Turmoil

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AMPLITECH GROUP INC. USD0.001 S/R 20/11/26 SER B

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The dollar index rose to a 6-week high, up 0.14%, driven by higher T-note yields and increased liquidity demand amid stock weakness and the US-Iran conflict. The 10-year T-note yield reached 4.685%, a 16-month high. Gold and silver prices fell sharply, with gold hitting a 7-week low, as central banks may tighten monetary policy due to persistent inflation. Strong demand for gold from central banks, particularly China's PBOC, provided some support.

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Dollar Rallies and Gold Falls as T-note Yields Climb

On May 19, major US stock indices closed lower as rising global bond yields supported the USD. Concerns over the US/Iran conflict and its potential impact on oil prices contributed to market volatility. The USD strengthened against risk-sensitive currencies like the AUD and NZD. Key currency pairs showed mixed movements, with USDJPY remaining firm despite intervention rhetoric, while AUDUSD and NZDUSD faced downward pressure. The market remains cautious amid geopolitical uncertainties and inflation concerns.

Investinglive

investingLive Americas FX news wrap 19 May: Rising yields supports the USD.

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US markets experienced a risk-off sentiment with equities, Treasuries, and crude prices declining, while the dollar rose. Mediators reported little progress in US-Iran talks, impacting market confidence. Pending home sales increased by 1.4% in April, but concerns over housing supply persist. Treasury yields rose amid inflation worries linked to geopolitical tensions. Upcoming data releases include Chinese LPR and German PPI, while attention turns to FOMC Minutes and Nvidia earnings.

- US equities declined amid a risk-off sentiment, influenced by reports of stalled negotiations between the US and Iran.  
- President Trump indicated potential military action against Iran could occur soon if diplomatic efforts fail, while inflation concerns led to a continued sell-off in Treasuries.  
- Upcoming economic data includes Chinese LPR, German PPI, and UK inflation reports, with Nvidia earnings and FOMC minutes also on investors' radar.

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Risk off seen as US/Iran seem no closer on a deal - Newsquawk US Market Wrap

The U.S. dollar reached a six-week high against the euro as investors anticipated potential interest rate hikes by the Federal Reserve to combat inflation. Oil prices fell following comments from President Trump regarding Iran, impacting market sentiment. The dollar index rose 0.34% to 99.30, while the euro and sterling weakened. The Japanese yen approached intervention levels amid expectations for a Bank of Japan rate increase, with officials ready to act against currency volatility.

Thomson Reuters

Inflation fears and Iran uncertainty lift the dollar

Cotton futures experienced losses ranging from 69 to 136 points on Tuesday. The US dollar index rose to $99.215, while crude oil fell to $103.81. As of May 17, 41% of the US cotton crop was planted, slightly ahead of the 5-year average. The Cotlook A Index decreased by 325 points to 90.65 cents. ICE certified cotton stocks increased by 10,053 bales, totaling 203,491 bales. The Adjusted World Price rose to 71.87 cents/lb.

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Intercontinental Exchange

Cotton Fading Lower on Tuesday

The AUDUSD has shown volatility, initially extending lower but finding support between 0.7100 and 0.7113. A modest recovery rally occurred, but sellers regained control, pushing the pair below 0.7100 and down to 0.7080. Currently, the focus is on the 0.7100–0.7113 zone, with buyers attempting to reclaim it as support, while sellers aim to maintain pressure and target lower levels, including 0.7055.

Currencyshares Aus Dollar Trust

AUDUSD bounces. Close to a failed break below floor

The Canadian dollar has weakened against the US dollar, with USD/CAD gaining about 0.3% recently. Canadian CPI data for April was below expectations at 2.8%, indicating no immediate inflation concerns. The Bank of Canada maintains a neutral stance on interest rates, while US Treasury yields rise, making US investments more attractive. This dynamic may continue to pressure the Canadian dollar. The USD/CAD remains in a sideways range, with key resistance at 1.39215 and bullish momentum indicated by RSI and MACD.

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USD/CAD Forecast: Canadian dollar loses ground after CPI release

The EURUSD has fallen to a new session low of 1.1593 after failing to maintain an earlier rise. The pair briefly reached 1.1661 but faced resistance, leading to a shift in momentum favoring sellers. Key support levels were breached, with the next target at 1.15768. US yields increased, supporting the dollar, while crude oil prices fell. Sellers maintain an advantage as long as the price stays below 1.16287 and 1.16159.

EURUSD seller take the pair to the lowest level since April 8th. Sellers in control.

Michael Boutros, Senior Market Analyst at StoneX, analyzes the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) as traders adjust expectations for Federal Reserve policy, indicating potential rate hikes. The 99.50 resistance zone is critical for determining if the U.S. Dollar will experience a bullish reversal or continue its downtrend. The analysis includes various currency outlooks, highlighting significant market movements.

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