(The author is a Reuters Breakingviews columnist. The opinions expressed are his own.)

（作者為路透社 Breakingviews 專欄作家。文中觀點僅代表其個人立場。）

By Jonathan Guilford

喬納森·吉爾福德（Jonathan Guilford）

NEW YORK, Oct 21 (Reuters Breakingviews) - Elon Musk is back in the lab. He said on Tuesday that the two linchpins of his empire, SpaceX (SPCX.O) and Tesla (TSLA.O) , are experimenting with the idea of a merger. It would be a colossal undertaking to combine cars, robots, chatbots, batteries, satellites, social media, rocket ships and microchips into a $4 trillion mega-conglomerate. Although it defies any conventional financial wisdom, so does pretty much anything the billionaire has ever done.

紐約 10 月 21 日（路透社 Breakingviews）——埃隆·馬斯克再次投身於他的 “實驗室”。他週二表示，其商業帝國的兩大支柱——SpaceX (SPCX.O) 和特斯拉 (TSLA.O) ——正在試驗合併的可能性。將汽車、機器人、聊天機器人、電池、衞星、社交媒體、火箭飛船和微芯片整合成一個價值 4 萬億美元的巨型 conglomerate ，這將是一項龐大的工程。儘管這違背了任何傳統的金融智慧，但這位億萬富翁過往的所作所為大多也是如此。

Despite some linkages between the companies, like shared semiconductor and software ventures, the ultimate prize for Musk is simple: control. He is CEO of both, but super-voting stock gives him 85% of the say at SpaceX compared to the 18% conferred by his common equity in Tesla. Consolidation would theoretically give him reign over the entire empire. The issue will be ensuring that ostensibly independent board committees strike a fair deal for other shareholders, too.

儘管兩家公司之間存在一些聯繫，例如共享半導體和軟件業務，但對馬斯克而言，終極目標很簡單：控制權。他同時擔任兩家公司的首席執行官，但超級投票權股票使他在 SpaceX 擁有 85% 的話語權，相比之下，他在特斯拉的普通股僅賦予他 18% 的話語權。從理論上講，合併將使他能統領整個帝國。問題的關鍵在於，如何確保表面上獨立的董事會委員會也能其他股東達成公平的交易。

Tesla has taken a backseat since the SpaceX initial public offering in June. The electric-car maker’s shares nevertheless trade at more than 200 times expected earnings for the year, according to estimates gathered by Visible Alpha. Even as Wall Street’s expectations for 2026 operating income crashed by 80% over the past two years and competition with rising Chinese rivals accelerates, Tesla hovers on the promise of self-driving cars and robot butlers.

自 6 月 SpaceX 首次公開募股（IPO）以來，特斯拉已退居次要地位。儘管如此，根據 Visible Alpha 收集的數據，這家電動汽車製造商的股票交易價格仍超過其年度預期市盈率的 200 倍。儘管華爾街對特斯拉 2026 年營業利潤的預期在過去兩年內暴跌了 80%，且與中國新興競爭對手的競爭日益加劇，但特斯拉仍依靠自動駕駛汽車和機器人管家的承諾維持着市場期待。

The optimism is distressing. Alphabet-owned Waymo and others already have robo-taxis on the road and a plethora of startups are pushing their own androids. SpaceX, meanwhile, is on a tear, thanks in part to its pivot into renting servers to AI chatbot developers. After reporting 830% growth in the unit from a year earlier on Tuesday, the company added some $160 billion of market value.

這種樂觀情緒令人擔憂。Alphabet 旗下的 Waymo 等公司已經上路運營機器人出租車，眾多初創企業也在推進自己的人形機器人項目。與此同時，SpaceX 正勢頭強勁，部分得益於其向 AI 聊天機器人開發者出租服務器的業務轉型。週二報道顯示，該部門同比增長 830%，為公司增加了約 1600 億美元的市值。

SpaceX is now worth more than 1.4 times Tesla. The gap could prove fleeting: mounting concerns over data-center operators such as CoreWeave threaten to derail the industry. Moreover, the two companies were roughly equally valued in July.

目前，SpaceX 的估值是特斯拉的 1.4 倍以上。這一差距可能是短暫的：人們對 CoreWeave 等數據中心運營商的擔憂日益加劇，這可能使行業脱軌。此外，兩家公司在 7 月份的估值大致相當。

Wider valuations make it easier for the boards to structure a deal. SpaceX can issue non-voting shares to subsume Tesla, but it would require owners of more than half of Tesla’s shares to vote in favor of eliminating their vote in exchange for a stake in the enlarged enterprise.

更廣泛的估值使得董事會更容易構建交易結構。SpaceX 可以發行無投票權股份來吸收特斯拉，但這需要超過半數特斯拉股份的持有人投票贊成，以放棄其投票權換取擴大後企業的股權。

In a merger, Tesla would contribute 41% of the value and SpaceX the rest. Musk currently holds voting control over 57% of it all. Rejecting an M&A option that lacks cash, a healthy premium or voting rights would be more rational. Then again, for a man hellbent on colonizing Mars, there’s little room for rational.

在合併中，特斯拉將貢獻 41% 的價值，其餘由 SpaceX 貢獻。馬斯克目前持有合併後實體 57% 的投票控制權。拒絕一項既沒有現金、也沒有豐厚溢價或投票權的併購方案，或許更為理性。然而，對於一個一心想要殖民火星的人來説，理性的空間並不大。

Follow Jonathan Guilford on X and LinkedIn.

在 X 和 LinkedIn 上關注喬納森·吉爾福德。

CONTEXT NEWS

背景新聞

SpaceX CEO Elon Musk said on October 20 that both the rocket company and automaker Tesla, where he also serves as CEO, have formed special board committees to discuss a potential merger, adding that a combination would be a “good idea.”

SpaceX 首席執行官埃隆·馬斯克 10 月 20 日表示，這家火箭公司和他同樣擔任首席執行官的汽車製造商特斯拉已成立特別董事會委員會，以討論潛在的合併事宜，並稱合併將是一個 “好主意”。

(Editing by Jeffrey Goldfarb; Production by Pranav Kiran)

（編輯：Jeffrey Goldfarb；製作：Pranav Kiran）

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