Conference Minutes
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Dolphin Research

NFLX (Trans): Ads up 80%+ but still below target; U.S. content needs to speed up

Global and U.S. churn improved YoY, beating expectations. Full-year guidance remains intact and on track to be met.

However, the ad biz grew over 80% YoY yet still lagged aggressive targets. U.S. content growth was 'slower than hoped'.

The company replaced its Chief Content Officer. Q4 guidance incorporates ~120 bps of layoff-related costs, and the 2027 outlook was deferred to Jan.

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Dolphin Research

CATL (Trans): Tax burden compresses unit earnings; demand next year still seen up 20-30%

Q3 revenue was RMB 165.22 bn (+58.6% YoY), with recognized shipments topping 260 GWh. Attributable net profit rose just 10% as the Sept. consumption tax, lower export tax rebates, and an adverse product mix compressed unit profitability.

In Q4, the company will absorb a full quarter of the consumption tax. It still expects demand to grow 20–30% next year and is stepping up battery swapping and overseas ESS.

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Dolphin Research

IBKR (Trans): Dividend to $0.60; Bets on RIAs and AI trading

Pre-tax margin reached 78%, the eighth straight quarter above 70%. Annualized dividend was raised to $0.60 from $0.35. However, trading activity eased vs. Q2, with stock share volume down 24% YoY, while the company increased deployment into RIA tax-aware L/S strategies (c.$300 mn AUM at quarter-end) and proprietary AI trading.

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TSM (Trans): Won't leave money on the table; aims to win every possible biz.

Q4 revenue guidance is $53.3bn at the midpoint (+14% QoQ), with full-year USD revenue growth around 44%. However, a steep 2nm ramp and dilution from overseas fabs push the Q4 GPM midpoint down to 66%, and the overseas dilution is expected to widen by 300–400bps over the next few years. The company is adding a second 3nm fab in Tainan and evaluating capacity expansion in Texas, noting that AI demand still far exceeds supply.

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AMAT Trans: 2030 target to add 2ppt WFE share; GPM to 54%.

Below is Dolphin Research's Trans from AMAT's 2026 SEMICON West investor tech session.

Key takeaways: AI is concentrating incremental WFE on the company's leading positions in advanced logic, DRAM, and advanced packaging.

By 2030, management targets GPM of 54%, OPM of 40%, and 200bps+ share gains.

However, it gave no WFE outlook and flagged that cleanroom and supply-chain constraints could make growth uneven, while betting on EPIC and AIx services to drive yield innovation...

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Dolphin Research

MRVL (Trans): Data center capex to exceed RMB 3 tn; the company has secured 5-year capacity.

Below is the meeting Trans of MRVL 2026 Investor Day (covering FY27), compiled by Dolphin Research. For in-depth analysis, cf. 'Marvell: Long-term guidance surges — confidence or just painting a rosy picture?'

I. Core highlights. 1) Shareholder returns & capital allocation: From FY21–FY26, the co. invested approx. $8 bn in organic R&D and about $11 bn in M&A.

It also returned about $4 bn to shareholders via dividends and buybacks. Looking ahead, with structurally stronger cash flow...

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Dolphin Research

MU (Analyst huddle): SCA covers 35% of revenue; at least two nodes ahead of Chinese peers

Below is Dolphin Research's Trans of MU's FY26 Q4 post-earnings analyst call. For our earnings read-through, please see 'Micron: Without the melt-up, can long-term agreements really support a memory revival?'.

I. $Micron Tech(MU.US) Key Earnings Recap: 1) FQ1 modeling assumptions: guidance implies DRAM and NAND bit shipments up low single-digit QoQ, with unit costs showing double-digit change. 2) FY27 R&D raised: excluding incentive comp., ...

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