HAIDILAO

Haidilao retreated to HK$11.89 today amid persistent profit pressures. Q4 2025 earnings showed revenue climbing 10.71% year-over-year to HK$12.52 billion, yet net profit fell 10.3% and EPS dropped 9.74%, compressing net margins to 10.17%. The 112% surge in delivery sales masks deteriorating core restaurant-unit profitability. Analyst downgrades compound the weakness: Morgan Stanley cut its target price to HK$17.5 on July 20 and lowered full-year earnings forecasts, while Daiwa, despite an upgrade to 'Outperform' on July 22, trimmed its target to just HK$13.2. Priced 33.43% below the 52-week peak of HK$17.86 and down 17.49% year-to-date, the stock sits well below its 60-day average of HK$12.34, signaling investor skepticism. Recent signals from management of an overseas pivot could offer structural relief, but near-term domestic consumption weakness remains the binding constraint.

Haidilao closed flat after opening stronger, with intraday weakness reflecting investor caution over domestic consumption headwinds. Q4 revenue grew 10.71% to HKD 12.52 billion year-over-year, yet net profit declined 10.3% to HKD 1.27 billion, signaling margin compression. The stock has fallen 17% year-to-date from HKD 14.41 and slumped 33% from February's peak of HKD 17.86, though recovering from June's low of HKD 10.58. Management recently signaled an overseas expansion pivot to offset near-term domestic headwinds, but investors remain skeptical on profit recovery timing. Daiwa upgraded to Outperform with a HKD 13.2 target, while Morgan Stanley cut its target to HKD 17.5, reflecting divergent analyst views on the company's path forward.

Haidilao rebounded modestly by 1.75% today, primarily supported by technical buying after its profound drawdown; at HKD11.62 it sits just 9.83% above its 52-week low of HKD10.58 and has fallen 19.36% year-to-date. Q4 results reveal operational strain: revenue grew 10.71% to HKD12.52 billion but net profit contracted 10.3% to HKD1.27 billion, signaling margin compression. Analyst target prices have been systematically cut—Morgan Stanley, Daiwa, and Bank of America reduced their targets to HKD17.5, HKD13.2, and HKD13 respectively, all below current levels, reflecting limited confidence in near-term restaurant recovery. While delivery revenue surged 112% year-over-year, analysts noted this masks the deterioration in core dine-in profitability. Despite Daiwa's recent upgrade to Outperform, the concurrent target price reduction suggests institutions remain cautious on near-term demand recovery.

Haidilao advanced 1.4% today on Daiwa's rating upgrade to Outperform with a HKD 13.2 target price. Intraday trading showed a rally followed by pullback—morning session surged to HKD 11.55 at 10:41 Beijing time, then eased to HKD 11.42 at close. Q4 revenue grew 10.71% year-over-year with delivery services surging 112%, though EPS declined 9.74%, indicating sustained growth momentum despite profitability headwinds. The stock trades near relative lows, down 20.75% year-to-date and 36% below the 52-week high of HKD 17.86, yet only 7.94% above the 52-week low of HKD 10.58 set in late June, consolidating near the 20-day moving average. However, Morgan Stanley targets HKD 17.5 and Bank of America maintains a neutral stance, suggesting cautious market sentiment on consumption recovery.

Shares closed down 1.2% at HK$11.26, reflecting persistent headwinds from slowing consumption growth and mounting profit pressures. Q4 revenue reached HK$12.52 billion, up 10.71% year-over-year, yet net profit declined 10.3% to HK$1.27 billion with EPS at HK$0.2353 down 9.74% year-over-year, indicating profit growth lagging revenue expansion. Analyst adjustments reflect mixed sentiment: Daiwa upgraded to Outperform but set a target of HK$13.2, while Morgan Stanley previously cut its target to HK$17.5 and lowered earnings forecasts, both signaling caution on near-term growth. Valuation-wise, shares have fallen 36.95% from the 52-week high of HK$17.86 and are down 21.86% year-to-date, now trading just 6.43% above the 52-week low of HK$10.58. However, the delivery business surged 112% year-over-year, suggesting the company is actively pursuing alternative growth drivers as dine-in demand softens.