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On the surface, it sells fried chicken and pizza. In essence, it sells a hard-to-replicate operating system built for low cost, high efficiency, and high repeat purchase.
+16Below is Dolphin Research's transcript of Atour's FY2025 earnings call.
For our take on the results, please see 'Atour: Retail is surging — is the Haidilao of hotels smiling again?'
Operating leverage kicked in, driving a sharp profit jump
+12In our previous piece, we examined how ATAT has carved out a differentiated position in the mid-to-upscale segment, winning on service in its core hotel business. We also highlighted a fast-rising 'second growth curve' in recent years — the retail business built on its hotel footprint.
At this juncture, how do we assess ATAT's growth outlook? How should investors view its investment value today? Let's continue.---
+7In China's cutthroat hotel market, ATAT stands out as a brand competitors both envy and fail to decode. It lacks the sheer scale of H World or Jin Jiang, and it does not play in the luxury league of Marriott or Hilton.
On the surface, it sits awkwardly in a mid-to-upscale gap where brands often fall between two stools. Conventional wisdom says this positioning is a recipe for mediocrity.Yet in 2024, amid an industry slump marked by price wars and a wave of closures, the company broke out with 50%+ revenue growth and 70%+ profit growth. It emerged as the sector's lone high-growth benchmark.What exactly enables this puzzling, much-envied brand to carve out growth in the gap? And what disruptive logic underpins its 'lodging + retail' dual-engine model?This time, Dolphin Research takes a closer look at how ATAT's biz. model differs. We'll unpack what truly sets it apart.---
+12$Hang Seng Index(00HSI.HK) market trends spreading to consumer sector $ANTA SPORTS(02020.HK)$LI NING(02331.HK)$HAIDILAO(06862.HK)$MIXUE GROUP(02097.HK)
The return of Trump has left China with no policy options but one path—reflation, which includes asset reflation and price reflation.
For China's economic growth, there are only two real drivers: leveraging and strong external demand. These are the fundamental sources of demand creation.
Next year, external demand itself will weaken marginally. If Trump wields the tariff stick again, China will have to focus on internal reforms. Moreover, demand stimulation must target end-user demand, not intermediate investment demand.
Over the past two years, Chinese assets have remained undervalued with high dividends. In 2025, cyclical and tech-upgrading sectors are likely to present opportunities (refer to the 2018 trade war).
The path is singular and clear, making the game simple. Next year, the focus will likely be on cyclical sectors, especially in trading terms—front-loading policy expectations and back-loading implementation effects.
The policy game has already begun today. In terms of timing, consumer goods, especially service-related consumption, must lead the cyclical upturn, as service consumption holds greater potential in China's domestic demand.
Moreover, the results of the 8th meeting will soon be released, followed by the Central Economic Work Conference at year-end. Thus, consumer sectors are poised for an initial rally. With valuations at low levels, Dolphin Research believes now is the window to position in cyclical sectors, recommending focus on consumer sectors with solid fundamentals and low valuations. $YUM China(YUMC.US) $NONGFU SPRING(09633.HK) $TSINGTAO BREW(00168.HK) $HAIDILAO(06862.HK) $CHINA RES BEER(00291.HK) $ANTA SPORTS(02020.HK)
Note that these overseas assets are purely listed in Hong Kong.
Internet consumer stocks, mostly listed in the U.S. with higher U.S. capital weightings, face concerns about becoming part of the U.S.-China play. Thus, they need to digest negative sentiment first, but opportunities may emerge afterward.