SK Hynix 2Q26 First Take: results disappointed despite an expected sharp memory upcycle. Revenue and GPM both came in below street expectations.
The shortfall mainly stemmed from DRAM, which accounts for over 70% of revenue. DRAM rose 42% QoQ, with shipments up high single digits (~8%) and ASP up ~30% QoQ.
Commodity DRAM prices in Q2 climbed more than 50% QoQ at the market level. SK Hynix’s ASP increase was materially weaker.
This softer ASP reflects a capacity pivot toward HBM. With smaller exposure to commodity DRAM, recent price hikes contributed less than the market had hoped.
The current memory upcycle has been driven by AI capex. With Meta leasing compute, the K3 model in focus, and Anthropic’s ARR growth slowing, investors have started to question the durability of CSP capex, prompting a pullback across the AI pricing chain, including memory.
The market remains divided on the cycle’s path. Some houses expect memory prices to start rolling over in 2H27, while others argue that LTAs signed by memory majors could delay the downcycle.
A slower slope of price gains is now broadly consensus. Street expectations for QoQ price moves in 2026 Q1/Q2/Q3 are roughly 90% → 55% → 15%. From a second-derivative lens, the surge phase has passed.
In sum, the print was weak, and investors do not expect sustainably outsized profits (e.g., 80%+ GPM). More important than this quarter is the trajectory of LTAs and whether they support steady earnings over the next few years.
The -10% after-hours drop directly reflected the miss. The subsequent rebound followed the company’s slide deck first officially confirming that LTAs include prepayments and other financial mechanisms, though no specific amounts were disclosed (Micron has disclosed prepayments and RPO).
The low valuation also embeds concern over future uncertainty. Clearer disclosures on order and price locks under LTAs would be key to restoring confidence in the multiple. For more updates, follow Dolphin Research’s upcoming commentary and Trans.$SK Hynix(SKHY.US)
