Speedrun | Upcoming Events This Week - [August 3 - August 7, 2026]
🌐 Geopolitical & Macro Updates: Iran Conflict & EnergyCeasefire Confusion: President Trump initially announced he was calling off planned strikes on Iran after requests from Middle Eastern countries and claims that a preliminary deal—including opening the Strait of Hormuz and ending nuclear threats—had been reached. However, Iranian state media quickly denied that any such deal exists.Oman Negotiations: Iran and Oman are in the final stages of negotiations regarding transit through the Strait of Hormuz, though Iran claims it is separate from closing or reopening the strait.Human & Economic Toll: The conflict has resulted in 653 U.S. military casualties (including 64 high-ranking officers).Gas & Inflation: Elevated gas prices (trending lower at $3.11/gallon from recent highs of $3.50) continue to drive inflationary concerns, which may prompt the Federal Reserve to consider a rate hike before year-end.📊 Earnings Calendar Highlights (August 3 – August 7)While major hyperscalers wrapped up earnings last week, several market-moving names are reporting this week:Monday ($Palantir Tech(PLTR.US),$ON Semiconductor(ON.US)): Focus on Palantir's high-growth sustainability and AI platforms, alongside ON Semiconductor's power semi demand.Tuesday ($AMD(AMD.US),$Arista Networks(ANET.US), $Astera Labs(ALAB.US),$Caterpillar(CAT.US)): Key items include AMD's sales growth and CPU demand, Arista Networks' networking demand, Astera Labs' supply dynamics, and Caterpillar's generator sales.Wednesday ($Sandisk(SNDK.US), $Western Digital(WDC.US),$TTM Tech(TTMI.US)): Sandisk and Western Digital will offer insight into NAND/HDD demand, margins, and outlooks, while TTM Technologies reports on PCB demand for AI.Thursday & Friday ($Applied Optoelectronics(AAOI.US), $Himax Tech(HIMX.US),$Aecom(ACM.US), $Oklo(OKLO.US),$Vistra(VST.US)): Focus areas include transceiver demand (AAOI), WFE spending in China (ACM), and AI power needs (Oklo, Vistra).📈 Market Sentiment & TechnicalsSemis Oversold: Semiconductors are currently experiencing their most oversold conditions since the late March bottom. However, the SOX index remains 19% off its peak, suggesting caution against FOMO buying.Risk/Reward: Many stock names are perceived as having a much better risk/reward profile compared to April and May.📅 Economic Calendar (Friday, August 7)Jobs Report: Nonfarm payrolls are expected to come in at 91K (up from prior), and the unemployment rate is expected to edge up to 4.3% (from 4.2%).Market Implication: A stronger-than-expected labor market could give the Fed more reason to implement a future rate hike, potentially driving bond yields higher.Link 👇
WDC 2X Long ETF
WDCX27.5204.76% ( +1.250 )
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$Western Digital(WDC.US)
WDC took another hit today as tech stocks pulled back, with storage names once again caught in the crossfire.
What stands out to me is how quickly the market shifts from “AI demand is booming” to “AI demand is slowing” whenever momentum cools. The underlying data growth hasn’t changed overnight. Cloud infrastructure and AI workloads still need more storage, and higher-capacity drives continue to improve the economics.
The stock may stay volatile, but I’m more interested in whether the long-term demand curve is intact. So far, I don’t see a reason to change my view.
@Captain's Treasure
Trade Showcase: Trade, Show & Earn Rewards! - S
AI Memory Stocks Repricing: CXMT’s Record A-share Debut vs Micron / SanDisk
$Micron Tech(MU.US) $CXMT(688825.SH) CXMT (688825.SH) became one of the most closely watched semiconductor listings in China.IPO price: RMB 8.66First-day close: RMB 49.00First-day gain: about 465.82%Market ca...
Memory Supercycle: MU, SNDK, SKHY Jump. Real or Late? - F
$Western Digital(WDC.US) is my favorite after $Micron Tech(MU.US). +236% YTD, not bad right?
Western Digital rode that wave hard, then joined the July cooloff with the rest of the hardware names. If you’re in it, trail it.If you’re late, wait for the market to offer a better price than pride. We need some cooling off in these names.
- F
$DRAM is still an interesting short setup. Some names like $Micron Tech(MU.US), $Western Digital(WDC.US) while backtesting is holding this up, once this trend-line gives up I think we will see a good roll on the rock.
PT: Later once we see the breakdown begins.
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$Western Digital(WDC.US)
I think the market is still underestimating how important storage becomes as AI infrastructure scales.
The obvious trade is GPUs, but all that data eventually has to be stored somewhere. What makes WDC interesting to me is the combination of rising capacity demand and a supply side that can’t respond overnight. That creates a setup where pricing power and margins can improve at the same time.
I’m less interested in the day to day moves around earnings. What I’m watching is whether this storage cycle is becoming structurally different from the last one. If hyperscaler and enterprise demand keep expanding, I think WDC could have more room to run than the market expects.
@Captain's Treasure
Trade Showcase: Trade, Show & Earn Rewards! - D
It is difficult to tell if this recovery in chip stocks is a dead cat bounce. My gut feeling says no as the AI infrasture demand is real but the market is moved by smart money and what we can do is size our positions according to our risk appetite and set stop losses.
☕️ [Task Coins Giveaway] Daily Market Talk — Chips Explode, Tesla & Google Tonight
Memory stocks went vertical (MU +12%, SNDK +14%) on UBS's buy call, while Nvidia declared Vera Rubin in full production. Next up: Tesla and Alphabet report tonight, the first real test of whether AI capex is turning into cash.
- L
memory stocks still got room to up as previous week drop.
just try buy on dip or hold it if already brought.
☕️ [Task Coins Giveaway] Daily Market Talk — Chips Explode, Tesla & Google Tonight
Memory stocks went vertical (MU +12%, SNDK +14%) on UBS's buy call, while Nvidia declared Vera Rubin in full production. Next up: Tesla and Alphabet report tonight, the first real test of whether AI capex is turning into cash.
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All of these popular retail stocks are currently up double digits or more today 🔥
$Nebius(NBIS.US) +17%$Applied Optoelectronics(AAOI.US) +16%$Cipher Digital(CIFR.US) +16%$Teradyne(TER.US) +13%$Western Digital(WDC.US) +13%$Micron Tech(MU.US) +13%$Sandisk(SNDK.US) +13%$Seagate Tech(STX.US) +12%$Coherent Corp.(COHR.US) +11%$Coinbase(COIN.US) +11%$AST SpaceMobile(ASTS.US) +11%$Ondas(ONDS.US) +10%
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📊 𝐈𝐍𝐕𝐄𝐒𝐓𝐎𝐑 𝐍𝐎𝐓𝐄: BofA Says Chinese AI Models Reinforce Bullish Memory Demand Outlook - $Micron Tech(MU.US) $SK Hynix(SKHY.US) $Sandisk(SNDK.US) $Seagate Tech(STX.US) $Western Digital(WDC.US)
👉 𝗞𝗲𝘆 𝗛𝗶𝗴𝗵𝗹𝗶𝗴𝗵𝘁𝘀:➤ 𝗕𝗮𝗻𝗸 𝗼𝗳 𝗔𝗺𝗲𝗿𝗶𝗰𝗮 reiterates 𝗕𝘂𝘆 on 𝗠𝗶𝗰𝗿𝗼𝗻.➤ BofA maintains a $𝟭,𝟱𝟱𝟬 price target on Micron.➤ Chinese open-source AI models reinforce long-term 𝗔𝗜 𝗺𝗲𝗺𝗼𝗿𝘆 demand.➤ Kimi K3 API pricing is reportedly 𝟱–𝟯𝟱𝟬𝘅 lower than Western models.➤ BofA says lower pricing reflects 𝗯𝘂𝘀𝗶𝗻𝗲𝘀𝘀 𝗺𝗼𝗱𝗲𝗹 choices, not hardware costs.➤ Kimi K3 requires approximately 𝟭.𝟰 𝗧𝗕 of HBM per serving instance.➤ BofA says larger AI models require the same or more 𝗺𝗲𝗺𝗼𝗿𝘆.➤ BofA sees 𝗖𝗫𝗠𝗧 focused on commodity DRAM, not advanced HBM.➤ Micron's CHIPS Act restrictions may expire around 𝗗𝗲𝗰𝗲𝗺𝗯𝗲𝗿 𝟮𝟬𝟮𝟲.➤ Expiration could enable $𝟱𝟬–$𝟲𝟬 𝗯𝗶𝗹𝗹𝗶𝗼𝗻 in annual share repurchases.👉 𝗘𝘅𝗽𝗲𝗿𝘁 𝗦𝘁𝗮𝘁𝗲𝗺𝗲𝗻𝘁:𝗩𝗶𝘃𝗲𝗸 𝗔𝗿𝘆𝗮, Analyst at Bank of America:"reflect[s] business-model choices, not necessarily reflective of hardware costs.""require the same or more memory as their model weights and active parameters increase.""'Open' refers to weight distribution, not deployment cost." - P
Memory market update:
- Counterpoint forecast a 20% QoQ increase for DRAM.- Trendforce are more conservative at 13-18% for conventional DRAM and 10-15% for NAND. - Morgan Stanley raised Q3 PC DRAM forecast to 15-20% increases QoQ from 3-8%.These aren't perfectly comparable baskets but the main conclusion is that tightness still persists.SK Hynix CEO and Chairman both confirmed supply tightness post-US IPO, potentially into the 2030s.- Samsung is reportedly seeking a Q3 DRAM ASP increase of up to 20% QoQ, with LPDDR increases potentially exceeding 20%.That would be their third consecutive quarterly hike after +90% in Q1 and +60% in Q2. This is above TrendForce's forecast but if price increases stick, $Micron Tech(MU.US) and SK hynix would likely follow.- TrendForce expects Q3 server DRAM contract prices to rise 13-18%. Multi year supply agreements limit price increases for some large volume US cloud customers. Which means customers without LTAs and incremental volumes sold outside those agreements would absorb the largest hikes. - SK hynix reportedly plan to scrap price caps in its new LTAs so that spot upside flows straight through, while $Micron Tech(MU.US)'s SCAs carry floors and ceilings.- TrendForce estimates HBM will consume 22% of the top three suppliers' DRAM wafer input in 2026 while producing only 9% of DRAM bits. Those figures rise to 30% & 13% in 2027. This disproportionate wafer consumption is the main structural reason why conventional / server DRAM can remain scarce, even as capex increases. - On HBM4 itself, 2027 contract negotiations land around Q4'26 and Digitimes model HBM4 moving from ~$2/Gb in 2H26 toward $4-5/Gb next year.- Morgan Stanley suggest NAND remains undersupplied through 2027.- TrendForce expects mature SLC NAND pricing to rise 120-170% in 2H26, driven by shrinking mature-node capacity & MLC -> SLC migration. Positive read-through for $Sandisk(SNDK.US), Kioxia and $Micron Tech(MU.US), while $Silicon Motion Tech(SIMO.US) offers controller leverage.- Worth noting Kioxia has filed for a US ADS listing, and $Sandisk(SNDK.US) has raised NAND product pricing double digits while extending the JV with Kioxia to 2034.- $Micron Tech(MU.US) also recently broke ground on a ¥1.5 trillion Hiroshima expansion, targeting advanced DRAM & HBM shipments around summer 2028. - H
Morgan Stanley: 'Selloff of US memory stocks creates a compelling entry point'. - $Micron Tech(MU.US) $Sandisk(SNDK.US) $Seagate Tech(STX.US) $SK Hynix(SKHY.US) $Western Digital(WDC.US) $NVIDIA(NVDA.US) $Broadcom(AVGO.US)
"This remains an unusual memory cycle, as data center strength is the only cause – which means that as we saw in April there are mixed signals elsewhere that may be a false flag. Memory isn't the best risk reward in our coverage – which we think is NVDA/AVGO – but it's catching up fast. Memory stocks are crowded, and with the unusual nature of this cycle periods of drawdowns seem inevitable – but we are buyers on that weakness. In a cycle entirely driven by data center, there are going to be mixed signals in consumer, PC, smartphone markets, which impact spot market and inventory levels at various points; we believe that some of the anecdotes dragging the stocks down in recent days have been about those parts of the market. But we spent last week talking to several of our purchasing contacts in the data center space, and the intensity of the shortages in that part of the business show no signs of abating. We see prices up at least 25% on a like-for-like basis from 2q to 3q, above our estimates and above 3rd-party estimates. As importantly, the longerterm concerns that the memory shortage will intensify in 2027 and again in 2028 are still as strong as ever. There isn't enough memory vs. AI requirements, and we just don't see that changing...we think that the selloff in the stocks has created a strong entry point. We think that the best value in the market comes from the compute names, notably NVDA and AVGO, but memory is catching up quickly given this deceleration, and we think this should provide a good entry point for the stocks." - F
$Sandisk(SNDK.US) / $Western Digital(WDC.US) / $Seagate Tech(STX.US)
SanDisk and memory names got hit in the semi unwind. SK Hynix and Samsung are under pressure too. The market is pricing in slower HBM expansion and cheaper AI alternatives from China. Memory stocks are the purest expression of that fear. We have to wait until when they start basing.
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Memory stocks have erased their early morning losses and flipped green on the day 👀
🟢 $Sandisk(SNDK.US) +5.3%🟢 $Seagate Tech(STX.US) +4.3%🟢 $Micron Tech(MU.US) +3.7%🟢 $Western Digital(WDC.US) +2.7%
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$Western Digital(WDC.US)This is crazy. Half price sale.
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BofA: 3Q Memory
Key Takeaways from the 3Q Contract Price Check> Strong Server DRAM Pricing: Up 20–30% QoQ, spearheaded by high-speed LPDDR5 (compared to the market consensus of 20% or less). > Upbeat Spot Demand: Spot demand is healthy, driven by commodity DDR5 and legacy DDR4, with July prices increasing Month-on-Month (MoM). > Transition to HBM4: There is a near-term rise in orders shifting toward higher-priced HBM4 over the cheaper HBM3e. > Lower Long-Term Agreements (LTAs): LTA-based sales represent well below 50% of total DRAM sales (non-LTA portion is at 60–70%), allowing for solid QoQ price increases (e.g., 5–10%) that are often settled even under existing LTAs. > Rush Orders: Sudden OEM rush orders confirm a QoQ price increase of over 20% for both commodity DRAM and NAND. > Optimistic ASP Outlook: BofA forecasts a 21% QoQ rise in 3Q DRAM ASP, which is significantly more optimistic than TrendForce's assumptions (13–18% QoQ for conventional DRAM, or only 8–13% including HBM). Spot Market Dynamics > Price Rallies: DRAM spot prices have risen for eight consecutive weeks, defying earlier expectations of a price cap at US$35–40 for 16Gb DDR5. > OEM Buying Behavior: Having previously cut device production to resist the spot-price rally, OEMs are now actively purchasing memory chips to prepare for high sales in September and the peak 4Q season. > NAND Recovery: NAND spot prices rebounded, driven by a 4% Week-on-Week (WoW) rise in 1Tb wafers, supporting expectations of a 10%+ NAND ASP rise in 3Q.$DRAM $Micron Tech(MU.US) $Sandisk(SNDK.US) $Western Digital(WDC.US) $EWY
+1 - G
$Western Digital(WDC.US)What’s going on here? From $799 to sub $500 …
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Bank stocks continue the rally without any signs of stopping. Even when market opened lower yesterday, our 3 local banks managed to turn the tide and lead the reversal to eventually close higher for the day. I believe this is great for long term investors, but at the same time also expect the prices to drop back down in October when the trading board size decreases to increase trading volume.
☕️ [Task Coins Giveaway] Daily Market Talk — Cool CPI Lifts Chips, IBM Craters 25%
Inflation finally broke the market's way. June CPI cooled hard to 3.5%, the biggest monthly drop in six years, gutting July hike odds and sending chips flying. But it was a split tape: JPMorgan and Go...
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The market-boosting effect of CPI is somewhat insignificant. The market is currently in a state of intense tug-of-war between bulls and bears. The anticipated quarterly earnings season has been suppressed all along. Will it simply fizzle out or wait for an outburst after the suppression? Let's wait and see.
☕️ [Task Coins Giveaway] Daily Market Talk — Cool CPI Lifts Chips, IBM Craters 25%
Inflation finally broke the market's way. June CPI cooled hard to 3.5%, the biggest monthly drop in six years, gutting July hike odds and sending chips flying. But it was a split tape: JPMorgan and Go...
