U.S. stocks were poised to open July cautiously (SPX -0.3%, NDX -0.6%) as investors await Fed Chair Kevin Warsh’s comments today at the ECB forum in Portugal for rate path clues amid rising price pressures and a strengthening economy. Brent crude -1%, 10yr yields -0.6bp to 4.46%, gold/silver were lower. S&P 2026 EPS estimates have risen to $342 (+23% YoY), implying a 21.8x P/E. $Tesla(TSLA.US) likely to beat WS 2Q delivery estimates tomorrow. We remain cautious on TSLA long-term due to declining earnings estimates, increased competition in unsupervised autonomy, and an extended valuation. $Nike(NKE.US) fell 3.4% pre-mkt after management again reduced 2027 rev guidance. The June U.S. employment report will be posted tomorrow before the market opens (+120K exp).
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Today's US stock market is like a multi-act drama.
Act 1: NVIDIA crowned with $3.34 trillion market cap, surpassing Microsoft and Apple to become world's No. 1. From a graphics card maker to an AI overlord, this is probably one of the most dramatic comebacks in tech history. Act 2: SpaceX cools off. After its IPO, it once soared nearly 50%, with its market cap approaching $3 trillion, but today it plunged over 10%. The market has switched from chasing frenzy to profit-taking mode. Act 3: Geopolitical risks recede. The US-Iran peace agreement is officially signed, the Strait of Hormuz reopens, and Brent crude has given back about 80% of its gains since the conflict. Act 4: A new test emerges. Wash's Fed debut 130...
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