Vanguard Total Bond Market ETF

US Treasury Yields Rise Reflecting Market's Interest Rate Expectations

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US Treasury Yields Surpass 4.50%

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The 10-year Treasury yield has reached 4.62%, projected to approach 4.75%, the highest since February 2025, driven by persistent inflation. Analysts predict no rate cuts, with a potential July hike to address rising inflation and wage pressures. This increase in U.S. yields is affecting global bond markets, raising borrowing costs and impacting stocks, particularly in rate-sensitive sectors.

iShares 7-10 Year Treasury Bond ETF

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Vanguard Total Treasury ETF

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ISHRS Us Trsry Bd

iShares barclays 20+ Yr Treasury Bd

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iShares Barclays 1-3 Yr Treasury

iShares TIPS Bd

iShares 1-10 Year Treasury Bond ETF

Treasury yields climb as inflation fears fuel Fed hike bets

China and Japan led a significant selloff in U.S. Treasuries in March due to rising oil prices and weakening Asian currencies. The U.S.-Iran conflict and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz heightened inflation concerns, resulting in global bond yields reaching multi-decade highs. Upcoming April data will indicate whether central banks will continue selling Treasuries to stabilize currencies amid ongoing energy market challenges.

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China and Japan lead record US Treasury selloff amid Gulf crisis

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Treasury yields edged lower in overnight trade as oil prices eased, but overall remained at elevated levels.

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US Treasury yields decline as investors await Middle East resolution

US stocks closed mixed with the Dow up 0.32% while the S&P and Nasdaq fell. Trump paused a planned attack on Iran, responding to requests from Middle Eastern leaders, which caused market volatility. Oil prices fluctuated significantly, and US yields were also volatile. The EURUSD reached session highs, while GBPUSD rebounded after early losses. Overall, geopolitical tensions influenced market movements.

- US stocks closed mixed, with the Dow rising while the S&P and Nasdaq fell.  
- Key events included a jury ruling against Elon Musk and a report of false claims regarding US oil sanctions.  
- Amid geopolitical developments, Iran's nuclear freeze proposal and Trump's cancellation of a planned attack on Iran affected market volatility, including fluctuations in crude oil prices and US yields.

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investingLive Americas FX news wrap 18 May: Trump pauses Iran attack, markets whip

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Morgan Stanley warns of a potential 'meaningful correction' in the stock market due to a bond selloff, with the S&P 500 down 1% since its recent high. The 10-year Treasury yield has reached 4.58%, the highest since February 2025. Analysts expect equity prices to correct if rates continue to rise, influenced by the U.S.-Iran war and rising oil prices. Despite this, Morgan Stanley maintains a bullish long-term outlook, raising its 12-month S&P 500 target to 8,300.

- The S&P 500 has decreased by 1% since reaching a new record high, influenced by rising bond yields, with the 10-year Treasury yield at 4.58%.  
- Analysts from Morgan Stanley warn that if rates continue to rise, a significant correction in equity prices might occur, particularly due to the U.S.-Iran war's impact on oil and inflation risks.  
- Despite short-term concerns, Morgan Stanley maintains a bullish long-term outlook, raising its 12-month price target for the S&P 500 to 8,300 and its 2026 year-end price target to 8,000.

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Stock Market Faces 'Meaningful Correction' Risk from Bond Selloff, Warns Morgan Stanley

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Bitcoin has dropped to $77,000 as rising crude oil prices and Treasury yields exert pressure on risk assets. The 30-year Treasury yield reached 5.13%, the highest since 2007, while the 10-year yield hit a 12-month high of 4.59%. Analysts note that higher yields increase the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets like Bitcoin. The broader cryptocurrency market is also declining, with Ethereum, Solana, and XRP each down over 1%. Bitcoin is now nearly 40% below its all-time high of $126,000 from last October.

- Bitcoin (BTC) has dropped to $77,000 as rising crude oil prices and Treasury yields pressure risk assets, with the U.S. 30-year Treasury yield at its highest since 2007.  
- The increase in bond yields raises the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets like Bitcoin, contributing to its decline alongside other cryptocurrencies such as Ethereum and Solana.  
- Analysts highlight the challenge for cryptocurrencies to stabilize amid rising inflation and sustained high interest rates, with Bitcoin down nearly 40% from its all-time high of $126,000.

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Bitcoin Falls To $77,000 As Oil And Treasury Yields Rise

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The 10-year Treasury yield moved higher. Goldman Sachs said Treasurys had been a poor diversifier since the end of February.

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US Treasurys seen as 'poor diversifier' for months

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Global bond markets are experiencing significant losses as inflation fears rise due to escalating energy prices linked to the ongoing Middle East conflict. U.S. Treasury yields have surged, with the 10-year yield reaching 4.6310%, the highest since February 2025. Analysts warn of potential economic fallout and increased interest rate expectations from central banks, with a more than 50% chance of a Federal Reserve rate hike by December. The selloff has also impacted European and Japanese bonds, with yields hitting record highs.

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Global bond rout deepens as inflation fears mount

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Investor concerns over rising inflation have led to a sell-off in the global bond market, pushing U.S. long-term Treasury yields to their highest levels in nearly three years. The 30-year U.S. Treasury bond yield rose to 5.16%, while the 10-year and 2-year yields reached 4.63% and 4.10%, respectively. In Japan, the 30-year government bond yield surged to 4.2%. BNP Paribas' Guneet Dhingra advises clients to focus on a trading range of 5.25% to 5.5% for the 30-year U.S. Treasury bond.

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Pengyang Chinabond 30-year Treasury Bond ETF

VG Extend Trsy

BNP Paribas

Global Bond Market Faces Sell-Off Amid Inflation Concerns

UTHY

Bond yields have surged, with the 30-year Treasury exceeding 5% and the 10-year surpassing 4.5%, increasing borrowing costs and impacting equity valuations. The Iran conflict has pushed oil prices above $100, raising concerns about inflation. However, U.S. corporate profits are projected to rise 28% year-over-year in the first quarter, alleviating some market concerns despite high valuations.

US Treasury 30 Year Bond ETF

Bond yield surge and Iran conflict stoke inflation fears

On September 18, the Federal Reserve will definitely cut interest rates. During the rate-cutting cycle, U.S. Treasury bonds and Treasury bond ETFs are popular choices for investors. However, the investment strategies for Treasury bonds of different maturities and their related ETFs vary. Below is a summary of some market consensus. Please correct me if I'm wrong:$iShares barclays 20+ Yr Treasury Bd(TLT.US) — relatively stable Treasury bonds of different maturities have different risk characteristics, which affect their volatility and return performance. For beginners, it's advisable to start by understanding some basic ETFs, such as TLT.TLT is a longer-term Treasury bond ETF with a volatility of about 1%. Other Treasury bond ETFs of different maturities will have amplified volatility depending on the length of the maturity. If you want to try to profit from price differences but don’t want to face excessive volatility, TLT is a good choice. It offers some volatility but is relatively stable.$Direxion 20+Yr Trsry Bull 3X(TMF.US) — higher volatility but with decayTMF is a triple-leveraged Treasury bond ETF. Although it has higher volatility, it has the characteristic of decay, meaning its value gradually decreases over time—a sunk cost.$VG Extend Trsy(EDV.US) — even higher volatilityIf you want even higher volatility but don’t want to deal with decay, consider EDV. EDV is a long-term Treasury bond ETF with higher volatility but no decay issues like leveraged ETFs.Directly buying Treasury bondsIf your goal is purely to collect interest, you can consider buying Treasury bonds directly. However, this comes with reinvestment risk—when the bonds mature, you’ll face market interest rate risks when reinvesting.

Direxion 20+Yr Trsry Bull 3X

Vanguard Total Bond Market ETF(BND.US)

Treasury yields climb as inflation fears fuel Fed hike bets

China and Japan lead record US Treasury selloff amid Gulf crisis

US Treasury yields decline as investors await Middle East resolution

investingLive Americas FX news wrap 18 May: Trump pauses Iran attack, markets whip

Stock Market Faces 'Meaningful Correction' Risk from Bond Selloff, Warns Morgan Stanley