Ellington Credit Company

Washi will likely respond to changes by staying the course, but will advocate for some operational changes. This is the safest kind of change, as it won't touch interest rates. Reducing intervention is his main theme. In the short term, the market will interpret any change as an increase in risk, but in the long term it might be a good thing.

The peace deal will help alleviate the pressure on the Feds. Oil has already trended lower so they can use that to say inflation risk is now lower.

With inflation remaining stubbornly above target, there is little reason for the Fed to rush into aggressive rate cuts. If the "higher for longer" narrative becomes more entrenched, REITs and other yield-focused assets could face renewed pressure, particularly those with significant refinancing needs. In contrast, companies with strong balance sheets, consistent cash flow generation, and durable pricing power are likely to be better positioned to navigate a prolonged high-rate environment.

good news to market sentiment: US fed rate looks like stayin put...

sg REIT ETFs are moving up today (CLR.si, SRT.si), moving towards MA200

the 10year US tbill yield has dropped below 4.5% (now at 4.484%)... looks like the market is preparing for no rate hike , just keeping rate constant. this will be a good case for REITs,bond and tech stock prices to rise.

Selloff is probably just risk off into today’s Fed meeting. Honestly, I think the pitch will be this - Fed will note inflation risks but now the peace deal is firmed up, they believe lower oil will help offset that. This Fed president also strongly believes AI will help lower inflation. So there you go!

with oil price coming down. stock that relied on it will drop eventually. but the demand for the chips are still high with the demand on EV., computers and all electronic equipments

The Warsh effect has already been priced in, and has been reflected in the reversal of the REIT rally, when he was nominated earlier this year.

The pullback in AI-linked semiconductors looks more like a valuation reset than a definitive end to the AI storage cycle. After a rapid, momentum-driven rally, investors appear to be reassessing earnings delivery versus expectations. A hawkish tone from a first FOMC chaired by Warsh could reinforce risk-off sentiment, particularly for rate-sensitive SG REITs and high-yield sectors if rate cuts are pushed further out.

I expect Walsh will signal rate cuts while becoming less transparent in its actions and holding fewer regular media briefings. This should lead to lower market volatility.

For S-REITs, I do not foresee any major impact. They are already trading at deep discounts; even in a worst case, a decline of roughly 10% would be the limit. There is a solid margin of safety to protect investors.

With yields above 5%, most blue chip s-REITs, they look very attractive. It is better than Singapore T-bills, government bonds or fixed deposits. REITs underlying assets are tangible and will not vanish overnight.☺️

“Shipowners will not resume transit through the Strait of Hormuz for weeks until they are confident that the US-Iran deal is “material”, the chief executive of Japan’s Mitsui OSK Lines told the Financial Times in an interview published on Tuesday (Jun 16)” - Source: Financial times

I have the same thinking as above. The current Middle East unrest is not so straightforward.

Takes weeks or months to improve the situation .😫 Current stock markets are way to optimistic. Let’s observe how the Fed chairman comments later.

Still have a bit of upwards

Looks like the bull has resumed for the memory chips. How long it will last, I don’t know. Just follow the smart money and don’t be left holding the bag.

Certainty is a fuel to sentiments especially to the bulls. And we can see that from the way the markets rally to a peace deal which seems more likely.

Now that the peace deal has firmed up, everyone seems to be in a buoyant risk on mode again. I am net long but cautiously so.

AI storage theme remains compelling as larger and more sophisticated AI models continue to drive demand for high-performance memory, storage and data management solutions. This provides a strong long term growth tailwind for companies exposed to AI infrastructure. However, after the sector’s significant rally, investors should expect periods of consolidation and heightened volatility, even as the underlying growth outlook remains intact.

Nvdia stock price running up last few years, make a lot of people become multi millionaire in world wide. are you one of them ?

Warsh will definitely be cutting rates as he believes the AI benefits will push down inflation, even from the negative impact of the Iran war. I will be longing major banks and long duration junk bond!