MSFT FY4Q26 First Take. Amid an earnings deluge this read is a touch late, but the takeaway is clear: the leadership rotation has swung back in Microsoft's favor. Four key points:
1) Azure re-acceleration: the Jun quarter grew 43% YoY. Guidance points to 45% next quarter, with 2H growth running ahead of 1H.
2) Capex did not spike: spend was $41bn this quarter, with next quarter guided to $50bn. That implies CY 4Q at approx. $52bn and keeps the run-rate on track for CY2026 capex of ~$200bn including leases. For FY2027, management still guides to YoY growth.
A small wrinkle: by extending useful lives on long-duration assets, some items now qualify as operating leases and no longer count toward capex. This technically lowers CY2026 reported capex to ~$175bn.
3) Making money: with AI a bigger mix in cloud, GPM should have compressed, yet the actual pullback was modest. Higher revenue amplified operating leverage and drove a sharp decline in opex ratio, helped by ~5k headcount reductions this fiscal year. As a result, margins rose rather than fell.
Note an important timing point: Microsoft began ramping capex in 2Q23 and has kept it elevated for three years, but D&A remains light, with the latest quarter even down YoY. Early capex skewed to long-lived assets and useful lives were extended this time, delaying expense recognition. Starting in 3Q25, however, shorter-cycle assets like servers will be purchased in size, so the depreciation headwind has yet to fully bite.
4) Cash to spare: unlike Alphabet, Tesla, and Meta, whose aggressive spend has strained cash flows, Microsoft's cash capex excluding finance leases remains in the $30–35bn range. Based on the qualitative capex guide and revenue trajectory, free cash flow should stay positive in the new fiscal year.
Overall, Microsoft posted a 'help-yourself' quarter in a market that is turning cautious on AI infrastructure spending elsewhere. Growth, margins, and cash are all in place, and in today's setup and risk appetite, the long-awaited rotation has finally come back to Microsoft. $Microsoft(MSFT.US)
