iShares barclays 20+ Yr Treasury Bd

TQQQ

WEBL

.IXIC

.DJI

As the first interest rate cut by the U.S. dollar entering the post-pandemic era of rate cuts, this rate cut can be described as both &#34;big&#34; and &#34;hawkish.&#34;The &#34;big&#34; lies in the fact that the first rate cut directly slashed 50 basis points, which was indeed unexpected compared to market expectations; the &#34;hawkish&#34; aspect was conveyed during the conference call and the dot plot, indicating that this 50-basis-point cut should not be linearly extrapolated, and future decisions will still be data-driven. This 50-basis-point cut was merely to demonstrate the Federal Reserve's determination to protect the economy.An interesting point was when several reporters repeatedly asked Powell whether this was a &#34;catch-up&#34; rate cut. Powell emphasized that, given the relatively good data on inflation and consumption, the large rate cut was more focused on being a forward-looking move. However, he also admitted that if the July employment data had been known earlier, a rate cut might indeed have been implemented at the previous meeting on July 31.From Dolphin Research's perspective, this illustrates two points:a. Among the various economic data, the current unemployment rate and new employment figures are the real core data, as subsequent CPI and PPI reports did not raise any red flags for the Federal Reserve.b. The dot plot released by the Federal Reserve to some extent only reflects the Fed's wishes and guides the market to trade on these wishes, but it does not mean this path will necessarily materialize.From the revisions in this economic forecast, it can be seen that among the root variables of the economy, the most significantly revised was the unemployment rate. The 大幅下修的政策利率预期 is merely a result of this root variable.Therefore, in the coming period, a key tracking point for the expected rate cut 幅度 will be the labor market: What is the labor participation rate? How much has labor supply increased? How much has job demand decreased? How much has the unemployment rate increased, and is it within the &#34;controllable&#34; range below 4.5%?Especially given the 惯性下修 in 每次新增非农就业， it’s prudent to build in some 保险 upfront. Based on the downward adjustments over the past few months, some decline should already be factored in. At least, this is how Powell indicated the Federal Reserve would approach the data.Furthermore, Dolphin Research is not overly concerned about this hawkish rate cut path guidance. The key still lies in the employment data, particularly if the weakening is primarily due to an oversupply from increased immigrant inflows rather than a decline in corporate job demand. In that case, the economy may not be as weak as feared.

Invesco QQQ Trust

Proshares UltraPro QQQ

Direxion 20+Yr Trsry Bull 3X

Direxion Daily Dow Jones Internet Bull 3X Shares ETF

NASDAQ Composite Index

SPDR S&P 500

Dow Jones Industrial Average

.SPX

As a key indicator for next week's interest rate cut, last night's August core CPI data basically confirmed that the first rate cut will only be 25 basis points.Structurally, overall inflation increased by 0.2% month-on-month, which is perfectly controllable. However, core inflation rose from 0.2% to 0.3% month-on-month. First, it indicates that the overall inflation can operate within expectations mainly due to the drop in energy prices.Secondly, the most critical acceleration in core inflation month-on-month growth is mainly because residential costs rose sharply again to 0.5% month-on-month. The sharp increase in residential costs is mainly due to the rise in the high-weighted owner's equivalent rent.Owner's equivalent rent can basically be understood as homeowners' expected rental return on their own properties. This figure also rose during the last interest rate cut expectation at the end of last year and the beginning of this year.What does this mean? People will price their asset returns in advance based on the expectation of a rate cut. In other words, once the expectation arises, even before the actual rate cut, it will produce some effect of a rate cut. In this case, an actual rate cut of 25 basis points may have an effect greater than 25 basis points.Even to avoid a repeat of the inflation resurgence expectation at the beginning of the year, the Fed's rate cut on September 18 is most likely to be 25 basis points.Therefore, the focus of next week's FOMC meeting is no longer how many basis points the rate cut will be, but the guidance on the future path and any wording that may further lean toward protecting employment under a 25-basis-point rate cut.In this context, considering that the market was still speculating and pricing in the possibility of a 50-basis-point rate cut, this possibility is now basically gone. Bond prices may need to give back some gains for $iShares barclays 20+ Yr Treasury Bd(TLT.US) $Direxion 20+Yr Trsry Bull 3X(TMF.US).Overall, with low inflation risks, interest-rate-sensitive sectors reacted sensitively after the expectation of lower interest rates emerged, indicating a high possibility of a soft landing for the economy, which is actually favorable for equity assets. $S&amp;P 500(.SPX.US) $SPDR S&amp;P 500(SPY.US)

S&P 500

US Treasury Continues to Maintain Short-Term Debt Issuance Scale

S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 futures resume trading

US Treasury Yields Rise, Sparking Market Jitters

AMPLITECH GROUP INC. USD0.001 S/R 20/11/26 SER B

InMed Pharmaceuticals

NextNRG

Amesite

AMPLITECH GROUP INC. COM USD0.001 (S/R 18/07/2026)

Meiwu Tech

CN Energy

Generation Income Properties

QUARTZSEA ACQUISITION CORP ORD USD0.0001 (18/02/2030) (S/R)

MetaVia

GOVT

A correlation exists between wage share and equilibrium interest rates, suggesting that rising bond yields may be overstated. Dario Perkins from TS Lombard notes that while AI adoption could reduce worker power and wage share, the impact on bond yields will depend on whether employees or employers capture productivity gains. As the U.S. 30-year bond yield reaches a 19-year high, this relationship offers insights for fixed-income investors.

Dow Jones

iShares Barclays Short Treasury

iShares 7-10 Year Treasury Bond ETF

SPDR Bloomberg 1-3 Month T-Bill ETF

ISHRS Us Trsry Bd

This chart shows why AI will eventually mean lower bond yields

CRAK

The Indian rupee is expected to dip at Monday's open due to rising U.S. Treasury yields and high oil prices, settling in the 96.08 to 96.12 range after hitting an all-time low of 96.1350. The Reserve Bank of India intervened to support the rupee, which is under pressure from inflation concerns and a strong dollar. Brent crude prices rose nearly 2% amid geopolitical tensions, contributing to a risk-off sentiment in the market.

Yahoo Finance

Occidental Petroleum

VanEck Oil Refiners ETF

SPDR O&G Equip

iShares US Oil & Gas Expl & Prod

SPDR Energy Select

SPDR O&G Ex & Prd

ISHRS S&P Glb Engy

VG Energy

iShares US Oil Equip & Svcs

United States Oil Fund LP

Pro Ultr Bloomberg Crude Oil

VanEck Oil Services ETF

Us Brent Oil

Mitsubishi UFJ Financial

Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group, Inc.

Rupee caught in cross-currents of US yield surge, oil-led risk aversion

NVDA

NVDU

The 30-year Treasury yield has reached 5.18%, its highest since 2007, raising concerns that rising rates may pose a greater threat to tech stocks than Nvidia's earnings. Higher yields increase borrowing costs and pressure valuations of growth assets, particularly in AI. This shift in the bond market could overshadow Nvidia's upcoming earnings, as investors reassess the impact of rising interest rates on market dynamics.

- Wall Street's focus on NVIDIA earnings may overlook critical signals from the bond market, particularly the surge in the 30-year Treasury yield to 5.18%, its highest since 2007.  
- Rising Treasury yields are impacting the valuations of long-duration growth assets, including technology and AI stocks, by increasing borrowing costs and tightening financial conditions.  
- As bond yields climb, the narrative may shift from AI's potential to the implications of higher interest rates on market dynamics and investor capital.

benzinga_article

NVIDIA

Direxion Daily NVDA Bull 2X Shares

iShares Expanded Tech Software Sector ETF

Spdr Select Tech

GraniteShares 2x Long NVDA Daily ETF

Vanguard Long Term Gov

YieldMax NVDA Option Income Strategy ETF

Direxion Semicon Bull 3X

T-Rex 2X Long NVIDIA Daily Target ETF

VanEck Semiconductor ETF

SPDR S&P Software

iShares Semiconductor ETF

iShares 10-20 YR Treasury Bd Fd

SPDR Port Lg Term Trsy

NVIDIA Corporation

Why A 5.18% Treasury Yield Could Matter More Than Nvidia Earnings

Yields on the U.S. 30-year Treasury bond have surged to levels not seen since the period preceding the global financial crisis. Similarly, bond yields in Europe and Asia have also experienced notable increases.

Unusual Whales

Pro Ultrshrt 20+Yrs Trsy

Direxion 20+Yr Trsry Bear 3X

Bond investors drive rates to highest since 2007 amid war fears. 30-year Treasury yield soars. Elevated yields globally.

FNCL

The 30-year Treasury yield has surged to 5.18%, the highest since April 2007, driven by expectations of persistent inflation and a robust economy. Citigroup's Jim McCormick suggests yields may test 5.5%, while a Bank of America survey indicates 66% of fund managers foresee yields exceeding 6% within a year. Rising oil prices, influenced by geopolitical tensions, are contributing to this trend, although a resolution could ease inflation and lower yields.

- The 30-year Treasury yield is at 5.18%, the highest since April 2007, driven by expectations of high inflation and a robust economy.  
- Analysts predict yields may approach 6% within the next year due to rising oil prices and ongoing geopolitical tensions, as indicated by a Bank of America survey.  
- A potential resolution to the U.S.-Iran conflict could alleviate inflationary pressures, potentially stabilizing or lowering yields in the future.

Tip Ranks

Citigroup

Bank of America

Fidelity MSCI Financials Index

Financial Select Sector SPDR Fund

VG Financial

Barclays

CITIGROUP INC 6.250 NON CUM SER II PFD WI

BANK OF AMERICA CORPORATION DEP SHS REP 1/1000TH INT NON CUM PFD QQ

BANK OF AMERICA CORPORATION DEP SHS REP 1/1200TH PRF SERIES '5'

BANK OF AMERICA CORPORATION 7.25% NON-CUM PERP CONV PFD SER L

BANK OF AMERICA CORPORATION 5.875%NON CUM DEP SHS REP1/1000TH SER HH

BANK OF AMERICA CORPORATION DEP SHS REP 1/1200TH PRF SERIES '2'

BANK OF AMERICA CORPORATION 5% DEP SHS REPR 1/1000TH NON CUM PFD LL

BANK OF AMERICA CORPORATION DEP SHARES REP 1/1000TH PERP PFD SER 'E'

BANK OF AMERICA CORPORATION INCOME CAPITAL OBLIG NTS DUE 15/12/2066

BANK OF AMERICA CORPORATION 4.375% DP SH RP 1/1000TH IN NON CU PF NN

BANK OF AMERICA CORPORATION DEP SH REP 1/1200TH PRF SER 1 USD25

BANK OF AMERICA CORPORATION 5.375%DEP SHS REP 1/1000TH NON CUM SR KK

BANK OF AMERICA CORPORATION 6%NON CUM DEP SHS EACH REP 1/1000 SER GG

BANK OF AMERICA CORPORATION DEP SHS REP 1/1200 PFD SER 4 USD25

BANK OF AMERICA CORPORATION DEP SHS REP 1/1000TH NON CUM PFD SER SS

BANK OF AMERICA CORPORATION 4.125%DEP SH REP 1/1000 PFD SER PP USD25

Bank of America Corp

30-Year Treasury Yield Rallies to 19-Year High. Is More Upside on the Way?

US stocks closed mixed with the Dow up 0.32% while the S&P and Nasdaq fell. Trump paused a planned attack on Iran, responding to requests from Middle Eastern leaders, which caused market volatility. Oil prices fluctuated significantly, and US yields were also volatile. The EURUSD reached session highs, while GBPUSD rebounded after early losses. Overall, geopolitical tensions influenced market movements.

- US stocks closed mixed, with the Dow rising while the S&P and Nasdaq fell.  
- Key events included a jury ruling against Elon Musk and a report of false claims regarding US oil sanctions.  
- Amid geopolitical developments, Iran's nuclear freeze proposal and Trump's cancellation of a planned attack on Iran affected market volatility, including fluctuations in crude oil prices and US yields.

Investinglive

VG S&P 500

Vanguard Total Bond Market ETF

SPDR Djia

iShares Barclays 1-3 Yr Treasury

iShares Core S&P 500

OpenAI

investingLive Americas FX news wrap 18 May: Trump pauses Iran attack, markets whip

MMKT

The U.S. faces a fiscal crisis as inflation erases wage gains since 2024, driven by the ongoing U.S.-Israeli war against Iran. Consumer prices rose 0.6% last month, while median weekly earnings increased only 0.45%. The proposed suspension of the federal gasoline tax could add $11.5 billion to the deficit, compounding the $200 billion requested for the war. The national debt is projected to rise 20% by 2028, with interest consuming a significant portion of tax revenue. The bond market demands 5% interest for 30-year loans, leading to real losses for bondholders.

- The article discusses the impact of inflation on U.S. wages since Donald Trump's election, attributing this inflation to the war in Iran.  
- It notes that the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported a 0.6% increase in consumer prices and a decrease in real median wages, reflecting a concerning economic situation.  
- The author warns of escalating national debt and government spending, forecasting a 20% increase in U.S. debt by 2028, while highlighting the rising interest demands in the bond market.

VG Extend Trsy

Texas Capital Government Mny Mkt ETF

America's day of fiscal reckoning draws closer

Oil prices and bond yields surged following Trump's rejection of Iran's peace plan, raising concerns about long-term inflation. Meanwhile, G7 finance chiefs convene in Paris to discuss debt, inflation, and energy security amid escalating geopolitical tensions. The US is considering military options as indirect negotiations with Iran persist without progress.

iShares Core US Aggregate Bd

Oil and bond yields jump as US rejects Iran offer

China and Japan led a significant selloff in U.S. Treasuries in March due to rising oil prices and weakening Asian currencies. The U.S.-Iran conflict and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz heightened inflation concerns, resulting in global bond yields reaching multi-decade highs. Upcoming April data will indicate whether central banks will continue selling Treasuries to stabilize currencies amid ongoing energy market challenges.

China and Japan lead record US Treasury selloff amid Gulf crisis

The iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT) fell to $83.66, an 8% drop, amid rising US bond yields following strong inflation data. TLT experienced $122 million in outflows, totaling $3.92 billion in losses this year. The April inflation report showed CPI at 3.8% and PPI at a four-year high of 6.05%, prompting concerns about the economy and a hawkish Federal Reserve stance. Analysts warn that higher yields could increase borrowing costs and lower equity valuations, with TLT at risk of further declines if yields continue to rise.

Fidelity

Cisco

Shutterstock

TLT ETF Outflows Jump As Top Pro Warns On Soaring US Bond Yields

Diesel-driving bondholders are NOT having a good time rn $SPDR Energy Select(XLE.US) $iShares barclays 20+ Yr Treasury Bd(TLT.US)

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Trade Showcase

Stable dividend from TLT , wish increase more units in future.And hold more other stocks position and grow my portfolio . 🫡

Welcome to the Earnings Season Portfolio Check‑up Challenge!Once a week, you’ll sit down, review your holdings, analyse what earnings mean for you, and plan your next move.No daily pressure. Just 6 posts in 6 weeks. And yes – there are cash coupon prizes💰✨📅 Event period: Apr 21 – June 1, 2026✅ How to join: Post with【Week 1 – Your Headline】+ #My Portfolio Health Check, 30+ words on your earnings‑season thoughts + holdings screenshot🎁 Rewards: 6 weeks → SGD 20 | 5 weeks → SGD 10 | 4 weeks → SGD 5
⭐️ Every week's “Best Health Check‑up” get an extra SGD 5 cash voucher!🚀 Start your portfolio check up now!🔎 More details: https://longbridge.com/topics/100000000601111?channel=WHAB0001

Welcome to the Earnings Season Portfolio Check‑up Challenge!Once a week, you’ll sit down, review your holdings, analyse what earnings mean for you, and plan your next move.No daily pressure. Just 6 posts in 6 weeks. And yes – there are cash coupon prizes💰✨📅 Event period: Apr 21 – June 1, 2026✅ How to join: Post with【Week 1 – Your Headline】+ #My Portfolio Health Check, 30+ words on your earnings‑season thoughts + holdings screenshot🎁 Rewards: 6 weeks → SGD 20 | 5 weeks → SGD 10 | 4 weeks → SGD 5 ⭐️ Every week's “Best Health Check‑up” get an extra SGD 5 cash voucher!🚀 Start your portfolio check up now!🔎 More details: <a href="https://longbridge.com/topics/100000000601111?channel=WHAB0001">https://longbridge.com/topics/100000000601111?channel=WHAB0001</a>

My Portfolio Health Check

TLT is the best and stable monthly dividend and hedging products in my opinion, will try to add more in future.

All eyes on the bond market 👀 $iShares barclays 20+ Yr Treasury Bd(TLT.US)Source: TrendSpider

Ethan1

Powell’s latest remarks: neutral to dovish Powell just wrapped up his speech — overall, it leaned neutral to dovish. Two key takeaways: First, he said that despite the current spike in oil prices, long-term inflation expectations remain stable. So the Fed hasn’t made any decisions yet — meaning rate hike expectations aren’t high. Second, he noted that the Fed’s asset purchases — i.e., balance sheet expansion — help lower interest rates and support the economy. That’s actually the opposite of the tapering expectations that have been circulating. Alright, neutral to dovish. The reaction from both stocks and bonds confirms that. But we’ll still need to see how oil prices react tonight. As long as oil holds steady, things should be fine. $Micron Tech(MU.US) $Microsoft(MSFT.US) $Invesco QQQ Trust(QQQ.US) $SPDR S&amp;P 500(SPY.US) $iShares barclays 20+ Yr Treasury Bd(TLT.US) $Meta Platforms(META.US) $SPDR Gold Shares(GLD.US)

Meta Platforms

SPDR Gold Shares

Micron Tech

Microsoft

If the war continues like this, one thing is relatively certain: each country will strengthen its own energy system and enhance its autonomy.

_aiicsz

Trump will TACO, he is clearly panicking right now with his truth social post over the weekend. He cannot possible lose the mid term elections if he drag the war. HE KNOWS IT!

☕️ This week: GTC kicks off, US-China trade talks, Japan oil release, quad witching. Earnings: Tencent, Micron, Alibaba, Xpeng. 3 big questions inside 👇

TENCENT

Tencent

Tencent Holdings Limited

TENCENT-R

Tesla

Alibaba

BABA-W

BABA-WR

XPeng

XPENG-W

Samsung Electronics 

Tencent HK SDR 10to1

Alibaba HK SDR 5to1

Suncor Energy

☕️ Daily Market Talk | Mar 16, 2026

Yes, if the war continues, it will be a dimensional reduction strike for everyone, but some people also profit from it. I feel that OXY will stand out in what comes next.

Everything hinches on the war now, no one cares about earnings anymore. It's a break or make moment mates!

If earnings is good, and TRUMP manages to secure the strait of Honduras, be rest qsu4ed the bull run will return!

Alot of major earnings coming right up, it will determine it the market breaks up higher and ignore the war, or down it goes!

Am watching the US-China trade talk as Trump might utilise the opportunity to pressure China to help de-escalate the Iran conflict and let him emerge as a grand Victor before the mid term election. If the war can de-escalate, the market would be head for a rebound.