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As the first interest rate cut by the U.S. dollar entering the post-pandemic era of rate cuts, this rate cut can be described as both &#34;big&#34; and &#34;hawkish.&#34;The &#34;big&#34; lies in the fact that the first rate cut directly slashed 50 basis points, which was indeed unexpected compared to market expectations; the &#34;hawkish&#34; aspect was conveyed during the conference call and the dot plot, indicating that this 50-basis-point cut should not be linearly extrapolated, and future decisions will still be data-driven. This 50-basis-point cut was merely to demonstrate the Federal Reserve's determination to protect the economy.An interesting point was when several reporters repeatedly asked Powell whether this was a &#34;catch-up&#34; rate cut. Powell emphasized that, given the relatively good data on inflation and consumption, the large rate cut was more focused on being a forward-looking move. However, he also admitted that if the July employment data had been known earlier, a rate cut might indeed have been implemented at the previous meeting on July 31.From Dolphin Research's perspective, this illustrates two points:a. Among the various economic data, the current unemployment rate and new employment figures are the real core data, as subsequent CPI and PPI reports did not raise any red flags for the Federal Reserve.b. The dot plot released by the Federal Reserve to some extent only reflects the Fed's wishes and guides the market to trade on these wishes, but it does not mean this path will necessarily materialize.From the revisions in this economic forecast, it can be seen that among the root variables of the economy, the most significantly revised was the unemployment rate. The 大幅下修的政策利率预期 is merely a result of this root variable.Therefore, in the coming period, a key tracking point for the expected rate cut 幅度 will be the labor market: What is the labor participation rate? How much has labor supply increased? How much has job demand decreased? How much has the unemployment rate increased, and is it within the &#34;controllable&#34; range below 4.5%?Especially given the 惯性下修 in 每次新增非农就业， it’s prudent to build in some 保险 upfront. Based on the downward adjustments over the past few months, some decline should already be factored in. At least, this is how Powell indicated the Federal Reserve would approach the data.Furthermore, Dolphin Research is not overly concerned about this hawkish rate cut path guidance. The key still lies in the employment data, particularly if the weakening is primarily due to an oversupply from increased immigrant inflows rather than a decline in corporate job demand. In that case, the economy may not be as weak as feared.

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.SPX

As a key indicator for next week's interest rate cut, last night's August core CPI data basically confirmed that the first rate cut will only be 25 basis points.Structurally, overall inflation increased by 0.2% month-on-month, which is perfectly controllable. However, core inflation rose from 0.2% to 0.3% month-on-month. First, it indicates that the overall inflation can operate within expectations mainly due to the drop in energy prices.Secondly, the most critical acceleration in core inflation month-on-month growth is mainly because residential costs rose sharply again to 0.5% month-on-month. The sharp increase in residential costs is mainly due to the rise in the high-weighted owner's equivalent rent.Owner's equivalent rent can basically be understood as homeowners' expected rental return on their own properties. This figure also rose during the last interest rate cut expectation at the end of last year and the beginning of this year.What does this mean? People will price their asset returns in advance based on the expectation of a rate cut. In other words, once the expectation arises, even before the actual rate cut, it will produce some effect of a rate cut. In this case, an actual rate cut of 25 basis points may have an effect greater than 25 basis points.Even to avoid a repeat of the inflation resurgence expectation at the beginning of the year, the Fed's rate cut on September 18 is most likely to be 25 basis points.Therefore, the focus of next week's FOMC meeting is no longer how many basis points the rate cut will be, but the guidance on the future path and any wording that may further lean toward protecting employment under a 25-basis-point rate cut.In this context, considering that the market was still speculating and pricing in the possibility of a 50-basis-point rate cut, this possibility is now basically gone. Bond prices may need to give back some gains for $iShares barclays 20+ Yr Treasury Bd(TLT.US) $Direxion 20+Yr Trsry Bull 3X(TMF.US).Overall, with low inflation risks, interest-rate-sensitive sectors reacted sensitively after the expectation of lower interest rates emerged, indicating a high possibility of a soft landing for the economy, which is actually favorable for equity assets. $S&amp;P 500(.SPX.US) $SPDR S&amp;P 500(SPY.US)

S&P 500

US Treasury Continues to Maintain Short-Term Debt Issuance Scale

S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 futures resume trading

US Treasury Yields Rise, Sparking Market Jitters

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A correlation exists between wage share and equilibrium interest rates, suggesting that rising bond yields may be overstated. Dario Perkins from TS Lombard notes that while AI adoption could reduce worker power and wage share, the impact on bond yields will depend on whether employees or employers capture productivity gains. As the U.S. 30-year bond yield reaches a 19-year high, this relationship offers insights for fixed-income investors.

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This chart shows why AI will eventually mean lower bond yields

CRAK

The Indian rupee is expected to dip at Monday's open due to rising U.S. Treasury yields and high oil prices, settling in the 96.08 to 96.12 range after hitting an all-time low of 96.1350. The Reserve Bank of India intervened to support the rupee, which is under pressure from inflation concerns and a strong dollar. Brent crude prices rose nearly 2% amid geopolitical tensions, contributing to a risk-off sentiment in the market.

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Rupee caught in cross-currents of US yield surge, oil-led risk aversion

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The 30-year Treasury yield has reached 5.18%, its highest since 2007, raising concerns that rising rates may pose a greater threat to tech stocks than Nvidia's earnings. Higher yields increase borrowing costs and pressure valuations of growth assets, particularly in AI. This shift in the bond market could overshadow Nvidia's upcoming earnings, as investors reassess the impact of rising interest rates on market dynamics.

- Wall Street's focus on NVIDIA earnings may overlook critical signals from the bond market, particularly the surge in the 30-year Treasury yield to 5.18%, its highest since 2007.  
- Rising Treasury yields are impacting the valuations of long-duration growth assets, including technology and AI stocks, by increasing borrowing costs and tightening financial conditions.  
- As bond yields climb, the narrative may shift from AI's potential to the implications of higher interest rates on market dynamics and investor capital.

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NVIDIA Corporation

Why A 5.18% Treasury Yield Could Matter More Than Nvidia Earnings

TLT ETF Outflows Jump As Top Pro Warns On Soaring US Bond Yields

Unusual Whales

TLT ETF Outflows Jump As Top Pro Warns On Soaring US Bond Yields

Yields on the U.S. 30-year Treasury bond have surged to levels not seen since the period preceding the global financial crisis. Similarly, bond yields in Europe and Asia have also experienced notable increases.

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Bond investors drive rates to highest since 2007 amid war fears. 30-year Treasury yield soars. Elevated yields globally.

FNCL

The 30-year Treasury yield has surged to 5.18%, the highest since April 2007, driven by expectations of persistent inflation and a robust economy. Citigroup's Jim McCormick suggests yields may test 5.5%, while a Bank of America survey indicates 66% of fund managers foresee yields exceeding 6% within a year. Rising oil prices, influenced by geopolitical tensions, are contributing to this trend, although a resolution could ease inflation and lower yields.

- The 30-year Treasury yield is at 5.18%, the highest since April 2007, driven by expectations of high inflation and a robust economy.  
- Analysts predict yields may approach 6% within the next year due to rising oil prices and ongoing geopolitical tensions, as indicated by a Bank of America survey.  
- A potential resolution to the U.S.-Iran conflict could alleviate inflationary pressures, potentially stabilizing or lowering yields in the future.

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Bank of America Corp

30-Year Treasury Yield Rallies to 19-Year High. Is More Upside on the Way?

US stocks closed mixed with the Dow up 0.32% while the S&P and Nasdaq fell. Trump paused a planned attack on Iran, responding to requests from Middle Eastern leaders, which caused market volatility. Oil prices fluctuated significantly, and US yields were also volatile. The EURUSD reached session highs, while GBPUSD rebounded after early losses. Overall, geopolitical tensions influenced market movements.

- US stocks closed mixed, with the Dow rising while the S&P and Nasdaq fell.  
- Key events included a jury ruling against Elon Musk and a report of false claims regarding US oil sanctions.  
- Amid geopolitical developments, Iran's nuclear freeze proposal and Trump's cancellation of a planned attack on Iran affected market volatility, including fluctuations in crude oil prices and US yields.

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investingLive Americas FX news wrap 18 May: Trump pauses Iran attack, markets whip

MMKT

The U.S. faces a fiscal crisis as inflation erases wage gains since 2024, driven by the ongoing U.S.-Israeli war against Iran. Consumer prices rose 0.6% last month, while median weekly earnings increased only 0.45%. The proposed suspension of the federal gasoline tax could add $11.5 billion to the deficit, compounding the $200 billion requested for the war. The national debt is projected to rise 20% by 2028, with interest consuming a significant portion of tax revenue. The bond market demands 5% interest for 30-year loans, leading to real losses for bondholders.

- The article discusses the impact of inflation on U.S. wages since Donald Trump's election, attributing this inflation to the war in Iran.  
- It notes that the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported a 0.6% increase in consumer prices and a decrease in real median wages, reflecting a concerning economic situation.  
- The author warns of escalating national debt and government spending, forecasting a 20% increase in U.S. debt by 2028, while highlighting the rising interest demands in the bond market.

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America's day of fiscal reckoning draws closer

Oil prices and bond yields surged following Trump's rejection of Iran's peace plan, raising concerns about long-term inflation. Meanwhile, G7 finance chiefs convene in Paris to discuss debt, inflation, and energy security amid escalating geopolitical tensions. The US is considering military options as indirect negotiations with Iran persist without progress.

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Oil and bond yields jump as US rejects Iran offer

China and Japan led a significant selloff in U.S. Treasuries in March due to rising oil prices and weakening Asian currencies. The U.S.-Iran conflict and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz heightened inflation concerns, resulting in global bond yields reaching multi-decade highs. Upcoming April data will indicate whether central banks will continue selling Treasuries to stabilize currencies amid ongoing energy market challenges.

China and Japan lead record US Treasury selloff amid Gulf crisis