Direxion 20+Yr Trsry Bull 3X

Strategy Report

KWEB

STECH

Hello everyone, this is Dolphin Research! In last week's strategy report, Dolphin Research mentioned that after the tariff issue was settled, the market's focus would shift to Trump's second wave of tax cuts and industrial policies. &#34;But the fatal BUG here is that tax cuts and industrial stimulus essentially require fiscal backing.&#34; Will the upcoming short-term trading revolve around this &#34;BUG,&#34; thereby affecting the valuation expectations of the entire asset class? Let's take a detailed look: 1. Trump's &#34;Big, Beautiful Bill&#34; = &#34;Big Deficit&#34; Bill? This new bill, the &#34;Big, Beautiful Bill&#34;...

Invesco QQQ Trust

Krne Csi China Internet

Hang Seng TECH Index

"Big and beautiful" = "big deficit", will US stocks be dragged down by US bonds again?

TQQQ

WEBL

.IXIC

.DJI

As the first interest rate cut by the U.S. dollar entering the post-pandemic era of rate cuts, this rate cut can be described as both &#34;big&#34; and &#34;hawkish.&#34;The &#34;big&#34; lies in the fact that the first rate cut directly slashed 50 basis points, which was indeed unexpected compared to market expectations; the &#34;hawkish&#34; aspect was conveyed during the conference call and the dot plot, indicating that this 50-basis-point cut should not be linearly extrapolated, and future decisions will still be data-driven. This 50-basis-point cut was merely to demonstrate the Federal Reserve's determination to protect the economy.An interesting point was when several reporters repeatedly asked Powell whether this was a &#34;catch-up&#34; rate cut. Powell emphasized that, given the relatively good data on inflation and consumption, the large rate cut was more focused on being a forward-looking move. However, he also admitted that if the July employment data had been known earlier, a rate cut might indeed have been implemented at the previous meeting on July 31.From Dolphin Research's perspective, this illustrates two points:a. Among the various economic data, the current unemployment rate and new employment figures are the real core data, as subsequent CPI and PPI reports did not raise any red flags for the Federal Reserve.b. The dot plot released by the Federal Reserve to some extent only reflects the Fed's wishes and guides the market to trade on these wishes, but it does not mean this path will necessarily materialize.From the revisions in this economic forecast, it can be seen that among the root variables of the economy, the most significantly revised was the unemployment rate. The 大幅下修的政策利率预期 is merely a result of this root variable.Therefore, in the coming period, a key tracking point for the expected rate cut 幅度 will be the labor market: What is the labor participation rate? How much has labor supply increased? How much has job demand decreased? How much has the unemployment rate increased, and is it within the &#34;controllable&#34; range below 4.5%?Especially given the 惯性下修 in 每次新增非农就业， it’s prudent to build in some 保险 upfront. Based on the downward adjustments over the past few months, some decline should already be factored in. At least, this is how Powell indicated the Federal Reserve would approach the data.Furthermore, Dolphin Research is not overly concerned about this hawkish rate cut path guidance. The key still lies in the employment data, particularly if the weakening is primarily due to an oversupply from increased immigrant inflows rather than a decline in corporate job demand. In that case, the economy may not be as weak as feared.

Proshares UltraPro QQQ

iShares barclays 20+ Yr Treasury Bd

Direxion Daily Dow Jones Internet Bull 3X Shares ETF

NASDAQ Composite Index

SPDR S&P 500

Dow Jones Industrial Average

.SPX

As a key indicator for next week's interest rate cut, last night's August core CPI data basically confirmed that the first rate cut will only be 25 basis points.Structurally, overall inflation increased by 0.2% month-on-month, which is perfectly controllable. However, core inflation rose from 0.2% to 0.3% month-on-month. First, it indicates that the overall inflation can operate within expectations mainly due to the drop in energy prices.Secondly, the most critical acceleration in core inflation month-on-month growth is mainly because residential costs rose sharply again to 0.5% month-on-month. The sharp increase in residential costs is mainly due to the rise in the high-weighted owner's equivalent rent.Owner's equivalent rent can basically be understood as homeowners' expected rental return on their own properties. This figure also rose during the last interest rate cut expectation at the end of last year and the beginning of this year.What does this mean? People will price their asset returns in advance based on the expectation of a rate cut. In other words, once the expectation arises, even before the actual rate cut, it will produce some effect of a rate cut. In this case, an actual rate cut of 25 basis points may have an effect greater than 25 basis points.Even to avoid a repeat of the inflation resurgence expectation at the beginning of the year, the Fed's rate cut on September 18 is most likely to be 25 basis points.Therefore, the focus of next week's FOMC meeting is no longer how many basis points the rate cut will be, but the guidance on the future path and any wording that may further lean toward protecting employment under a 25-basis-point rate cut.In this context, considering that the market was still speculating and pricing in the possibility of a 50-basis-point rate cut, this possibility is now basically gone. Bond prices may need to give back some gains for $iShares barclays 20+ Yr Treasury Bd(TLT.US) $Direxion 20+Yr Trsry Bull 3X(TMF.US).Overall, with low inflation risks, interest-rate-sensitive sectors reacted sensitively after the expectation of lower interest rates emerged, indicating a high possibility of a soft landing for the economy, which is actually favorable for equity assets. $S&amp;P 500(.SPX.US) $SPDR S&amp;P 500(SPY.US)

S&P 500

CCSC Tech

Youlife

Core AI

Regentis Biomaterials

Epsium Enterprise

Autozi Internet Tech Global

Leslies

Mega Matrix

eLong Power

Smart Logistics Global

GOVT

The 30-year Treasury yield has surpassed 5%, the highest since 2007, driven by inflation concerns and geopolitical tensions. A watchdog warns that if yields stay high, interest costs could consume 30% of federal revenue by 2036, limiting other expenditures. Analysts are divided, with some viewing the rise as a healthy adjustment, while others caution about possible stock market declines and fiscal instability.

Pro Ultrshrt 20+Yrs Trsy

SPDR Bloomberg 1-3 Month T-Bill ETF

Direxion 20+Yr Trsry Bear 3X

iShares 7-10 Year Treasury Bond ETF

Pro Short 3X 20+ Yr Tsy

ISHRS Us Trsry Bd

iShares Barclays Short Treasury

Pro Shrt 20+ Yrs Trsy

US long-term Treasury yields climb past 5% amid economic uncertainty

Traders in the US Treasury market are focusing on the upcoming Federal Reserve meeting to assess inflation outlook amid elevated oil prices. The Fed is expected to maintain interest rates, but traders anticipate a potential cut by year-end, with a 40% chance reflected in swaps markets. Current Chair's press conference will be closely watched for updates on his future plans. Benchmark yields have remained stable, and economic data releases this week, including inflation readings, will be significant as employment and retail sales show resilience despite rising oil prices.

Bloomberg

Occidental Petroleum

SPDR O&G Equip

Vanguard Total Bond Market ETF

VanEck Oil Services ETF

iShares US Oil & Gas Expl & Prod

SPDR Energy Select

iShares US Oil Equip & Svcs

SPDR O&G Ex & Prd

iShares Core US Aggregate Bd

VanEck Oil Refiners ETF

Bond Traders Await Powell Update, Slate of US Treasury Auctions

VGLT

UTHY

SPTL

The 30-year Treasury yield fell to 4.869%, marking a decline of 0.031 percentage points. This is the largest one-day yield drop since April 8, 2026, and the yield has decreased for two consecutive trading days. It is down 0.045 percentage points over the last two days and is currently 0.220 percentage points below its 52-week high of 5.089%. Year-to-date, the yield has increased by 0.039 percentage points.

MorningStar

Vanguard Long Term Gov

VG Extend Trsy

US Treasury 30 Year Bond ETF

SPDR Port Lg Term Trsy

Tradeweb Markets Inc-Class

30-Year Treasury Yield Falls to 4.869% — Data Talk

JGB futures edged higher in the morning Tokyo session, tracking overnight price gains in the U.S. Treasury market.

iShares Barclays 1-3 Yr Treasury

JGB futures edge higher, tracking gains in treasurys

Direxion Daily 20+ Year Treasury Bull 3X Shares (TMF) has declared a quarterly distribution of $0.2232. The payment is scheduled for March 31, with shareholders of record on March 24, and the ex-dividend date also on March 24.

Direxion Daily 20+ Year Treasury Bull 3X Shares declares quarterly distribution of $0.2232

Treasuries fell sharply on Friday, with the ten-year yield rising 11 basis points to 4.391%, marking its highest closing level since July 2025. This sell-off was influenced by volatile crude oil prices, which spiked over 3% amid Middle East tensions and potential U.S. sanctions on Iranian oil. Despite fluctuations, oil prices remain high, raising inflation and interest rate concerns. The Federal Reserve is unlikely to cut rates this year, with potential increases by year-end. Upcoming trading will be affected by ongoing developments in the Middle East and crude oil market.

nasdaq

ISHRS S&P Glb Engy

US Treasury 20 Year Bond ETF

Us Brent Oil

Direxion 7-10 Yr Trsry Bear 3X

VG Energy

Pro Ultr Bloomberg Crude Oil

Invesco Oil & Gas Services ETF

Direxion 7-10 Yr Trsry Bull 3X

ProShares UltraShort 7-10 Year Treasury ETF

United States Oil Fund LP

Pro Ultrshrt Crude Oil

US Treasury 10 Year Note ETF

Ten-Year Yield Skyrockets To Nearly Eight-Month Closing High

SPTB

U.S. Treasury bonds are likened to a bad boyfriend by finance expert Martha Gimbel, who notes that investors are hesitant to leave due to limited options. Despite a declining allure, the U.S. Treasury market remains attractive due to its liquidity. Concerns about the U.S. fiscal outlook persist, with a projected budget deficit averaging over 6% of GDP through 2036. Experts urge Congress to address the deficit sustainably, while the ongoing conflict with Iran may further widen the deficit. The situation reflects a K-shaped economy, where wealth disparities continue to grow.

Dow Jones

SPDR Portfolio Treasury ETF

Vanguard Short Term Gov

Texas Capital Government Mny Mkt ETF

U.S. Treasurys look like the bad boyfriend at the start of a Hallmark movie, finance expert says

511090

The 30-year Treasury yield increased to 4.725% this week, marking the largest one-week gain since January 30, 2026. This rise ends a two-week decline in yields. The yield is currently up 0.021 percentage points today, with a price drop of 11/32. It remains below its 52-week high of 5.089% and is up 0.058 percentage points from a year ago. Month-to-date, the yield is down 0.147 percentage points, and year-to-date, it has decreased by 0.104 percentage points.

Pengyang Chinabond 30-year Treasury Bond ETF

30-Year Treasury Yield Rises to 4.725% This Week — Data Talk

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Mace News

Schwab Long-Term US Treasury ETF

US 30-YEAR BOND AUCTION HIGH YIELD 4.750%; BID-COVER 2.66

$iShares barclays 20+ Yr Treasury Bd(TLT.US) and $Direxion 20+Yr Trsry Bull 3X(TMF.US) have been moving in such a funny way recently. The leveraged TMF barely budges; it feels like the faith of Treasury bulls is almost worn out. It's unbearable that the Dow keeps hitting new highs every day, dragging $Cboe Volatility Index(.VIX.US) down to the ground. Risk-hedging ETFs like $2x Long VIX Futures ETF(UVIX.US) and $Pro Vix Shrt Fut(VIXY.US) keep falling, and my portfolio is all red. Honestly, with the market being so fearless, it's better to just keep a small core position for peace of mind. Don't expect a big win; stability is enough. Buying volatility now is like fighting the trend head-on. Short-term trading is really easy to get depressed about; for the long term, just consider it tuition.

Cboe Volatility Index

2x Long VIX Futures ETF

Pro Vix Shrt Fut

Buying TLT is almost equivalent to going long on long-term U.S. Treasury bonds, which means believing that long-term Treasury yields will fall. Recently, I read an analysis article on 10-year U.S. Treasury bonds and it provided a trading range. Although TLT tracks 20-year and above U.S. Treasury bonds, the yield trends of 10-year and 20-year Treasuries are basically similar, so it can be used as a reference for TLT trading...

TLT I'm going to buy it this way.

On September 18, the Federal Reserve will definitely cut interest rates. During the rate-cutting cycle, U.S. Treasury bonds and Treasury bond ETFs are popular choices for investors. However, the investment strategies for Treasury bonds of different maturities and their related ETFs vary. Below is a summary of some market consensus. Please correct me if I'm wrong:$iShares barclays 20+ Yr Treasury Bd(TLT.US) — relatively stable Treasury bonds of different maturities have different risk characteristics, which affect their volatility and return performance. For beginners, it's advisable to start by understanding some basic ETFs, such as TLT.TLT is a longer-term Treasury bond ETF with a volatility of about 1%. Other Treasury bond ETFs of different maturities will have amplified volatility depending on the length of the maturity. If you want to try to profit from price differences but don’t want to face excessive volatility, TLT is a good choice. It offers some volatility but is relatively stable.$Direxion 20+Yr Trsry Bull 3X(TMF.US) — higher volatility but with decayTMF is a triple-leveraged Treasury bond ETF. Although it has higher volatility, it has the characteristic of decay, meaning its value gradually decreases over time—a sunk cost.$VG Extend Trsy(EDV.US) — even higher volatilityIf you want even higher volatility but don’t want to deal with decay, consider EDV. EDV is a long-term Treasury bond ETF with higher volatility but no decay issues like leveraged ETFs.Directly buying Treasury bondsIf your goal is purely to collect interest, you can consider buying Treasury bonds directly. However, this comes with reinvestment risk—when the bonds mature, you’ll face market interest rate risks when reinvesting.

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