1014 ｜Dolphin Focus

🐬 Macro / Sector

1、At 20:30 Beijing time tonight, the U.S. releases Sep CPI. Consensus: headline CPI at 3.6% YoY (+0.6% MoM) and core CPI at 2.5% YoY (+0.2% MoM), a key inflation read ahead of the Oct FOMC. Prints will directly sway UST yields and tech valuations.

2、China's NBS reported Sep prices: CPI at +0.9% YoY (+0.2% MoM) and core CPI at +1.0%. PPI rose +5.0% YoY (+1.2% MoM), the highest YoY since Jul 2022, led by energy and electronics. A mild CPI lift points to soft domestic demand, while a strong PPI confirms an industrial upturn. This favors cyclicals and the semi value chain, but weak consumption tempers hopes for forceful pro‑growth policy.

🐬 Single Stocks

1、$Apple(AAPL.US)

Apple unveiled its first smart home display, HomeView, priced at $299 as a HomeKit hub. Preorders for the foldable iPhone Duo open this Fri, the market's key product watch. HomeView rounds out Apple's smart home hardware and tightens the ecosystem. The foldable iPhone carries hopes for renewed hardware innovation; preorder traction will drive sentiment across consumer hardware near term.

2、$Alphabet(GOOGL.US)

Alphabet launched its flagship LLM, Gemini 4 Argon, available to paid subscribers and API developers. Limited‑time API pricing is one‑fifth of GPT-6 Astra and Claude Fable 5.1, valid through Nov 30. Aggressive pricing kicks off a global LLM price war to capture enterprise and developer demand, likely spiking API calls. But lower prices compress industry GPM and intensify competition, pressuring domestic models' commercialization.

3、$Meta Platforms(META.US)

Meta rolled out an AI‑driven 'Your Algorithm' tool that lets users set preferences via natural language to tailor Facebook Feed and Reels. Returning distribution choice to users improves UX and may lift time spent. With ads as its core revenue, more granular feed tuning should enhance ad efficiency over time, supporting platform ad value.

4、$Alibaba(BABA.US)

BABA's Qwen on Oct 13 launched three devices: AI glasses N1/N1 Pro and AI ear‑clip earbuds, now on sale across channels. Hardware serves as the sensing entry point powering the Qwen Personal Agent. AI wearables remain early stage. Battery life, must‑have use cases, and UX will determine whether the category can scale.

5、$ASML(ASML.US)

ASML reported 2026Q3: revenue €11.66bn, net profit €4.96bn, GPM 57.5%, and raised FY revenue guidance to €44–45bn. Overall in line, with revenue and GPM meeting prior guidance. Dolphin Research's First Take: without a clear 2027 outlook from management, the market may be disappointed near term. That said, capex at core fabs implies robust WFE demand, supporting high growth; a deeper read is due tonight.

6、$CHINA LIT(00772.HK)

China Literature shares have rallied as its IP‑based short drama '首辅娇娘' topped live‑action short‑drama charts for days, with peak heat over 68mn and S2 reservations above 3mn, making it a Golden Week hit. A deep web‑novel IP pool is its core edge, and short dramas enable lightweight monetization with fast cash and strong elasticity. But hits are stochastic; sustaining top‑tier output will determine earnings durability.

🐬 Top Gainers by Sector

A‑shares: Oil & gas E&P, integrated oil & gas, movies & entertainment.

HK: Apparel retailers, specialized consumer services, resi construction.

U.S.: Oil & gas refining & marketing, hardware & equipment distributors, ag machinery.

🐬 Watch Tomorrow

1) TSMC earnings.

2) U.S. Sep PPI MoM, Sep PPI YoY, Sep retail sales MoM, Oct Philly Fed Mfg Index, Oct NY Fed Mfg Index, Aug business inventories MoM.

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