1015 ｜Key Watch by Dolphin Research:

🐬 Macro/Industry

1. US Sept CPI rose 3.7% YoY and core CPI rose 2.6% YoY, both beating estimates, pushing the market-implied odds of an Oct hike to as high as 50%. The USD hit an 18-month high and UST yields moved higher. Sticky inflation undermines the 'pause' narrative. With Waller’s remarks before the Fed’s blackout seen as pivotal, the probability of a Dec hike has also firmed, and multiple-sensitive growth stocks are taking the first hit.

2. China’s Sept TSF rose RMB 3.55 tn and new RMB loans rose RMB 1.08 tn, both topping expectations, driven mainly by faster Gov. bond issuance. PPI YoY climbed to 5%, a near four-year high, aided by oil freight and coal prices. Fiscal support is clearly cushioning the economy, but household financing remains weak and endogenous momentum still needs repair. Monetary easing remains the broad direction, with attention on whether property sales can stabilize.

🐬 Single Stocks

1.$Coreweave(CRWV.US)

CoreWeave shares fell over 15% overnight, its bonds slumped into distressed territory, and CDS pricing implies a five-year default probability of 63%. Total debt plus lease obligations are about $52 bn. Blackstone-backed AirTrunk postponed a $1.5 bn REIT IPO, and even at a 6% yield found no takers. With USTs at 5.2%, capital-intensive AI infra expansion is colliding with a funding freeze, making the 'model–cloud–chips' excess-returns trilemma increasingly explicit.

2. Anthropic

At a pre-IPO investor meeting, Anthropic disclosed Q3 revenue of $16.8 bn, up nearly 46% QoQ, with adj. profitability and positive FCF for the quarter. Returns on compute outlays have improved, with $1 of compute cost driving $1.7 of revenue. This validates the commercialization capability of frontier models and paves the way for its IPO. However, QoQ growth slowed notably vs. earlier periods and fell short of some expectations, and adj. profit is not GAAP net income. In a landscape of ongoing AI price wars and higher rates weighing on multiples, this profitability proof-point is a key benchmark, while forcing a rethink of the growth ceiling for big models and the ROI on compute capex.

2.$Apple(AAPL.US)

Apple will roll out China-localized Apple Intelligence in Dec, partnering with Alibaba and BIDU. The initial features (Genmoji, notification summary, etc.) will launch domestically via an iOS update, with compliance safeguards co-built with Alibaba and search/Siri localization via BIDU. Regulatory clearance for onshore AI gives Apple a differentiated edge in its largest market. Alibaba and BIDU gain distribution into on-device AI, creating a three-way win, though near-term hardware lift should be limited.

3.$Netflix(NFLX.US)

Netflix announced a global headcount reduction of about 1,000, or 6% of staff, its largest since 2022. Cuts focus on product, tech, legal, HR and other G&A functions, and the company said full-year profitability guidance remains unchanged, with resources refocused on higher-value initiatives. With TikTok and YouTube UGC continuing to siphon viewing time, the layoffs signal cost optimization and tighter opex control. The market reads this as a sign of growth anxiety and will look to the Oct 20 print for validation on subs, engagement, and ad-tier metrics; near term this should lift margins, but core growth challenges persist.

4.$Taiwan Semiconductor(TSM.US)

TSMC reported Q3 2026 results with revenue of $46.7 bn (+41% YoY), beating the Street ($45.8 bn). GPM was 66.4%, down 130 bps QoQ and slightly below expectations (66.8%). The margin dip was mainly due to early 2nm ramp effects diluting overall GPM. Dolphin Research has published a quick take: continual top-line beats show operations are in solid shape. Given 2026 is largely 'known,' the market cares more about 2027. If management guides to '40%+ full-year growth' for 2027, that would provide the clarity investors need; a deeper dive will follow.

5. Earnings & Calls on Radar

ASML: 'Litho capacity is tight too — how far is ASML from price hikes?' 'ASML (Trans): supply-demand imbalance to at least 2028, price hikes to start in 2027'

🐬 Top Gainers by Sector

SH-SZ: exchanges & financial data; breweries. Water & soft drinks.

HK: household cleaning products. Furniture, home improvement & materials retailers.

US: managed health care; consumer goods retailers. Pharma.

🐬 What to Watch Tomorrow

1. US Sept import price index MoM. US Sept industrial production MoM.

Risk disclosure and statement: Dolphin Research disclaimer and general disclosure. Please refer.