GraniteShares 2x Long AMZN Daily ETF

AMZZ

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GraniteShares 2x Long AMZN Daily ETF

AMZZ

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NewUser_CkrdqW Rate Of Return17 hours ago
$Amazon(AMZN.US) Big tech companies, particularly Amazon and Alphabet, are significantly increasing capital expenditures, with plans totaling $700 billion this year. Alphabet announced a rise in capex to between $195 billion and $205 billion, driven by strong demand exceeding current computing capacity, despite a 8% stock decline following the announcement. I believe it’s very likely to affect other Mag 7 companies that are spending huge as well. Firstly, Amazon is a much larger cloud provider than Alphabet. Amazon Web Services has the greatest global share of the cloud computing market at 28%, followed by Microsoft at 21% and Google Cloud at 14%. Secondly, Amazon has been very public and bullish about its capex. In a letter to shareholders in April, CEO Andy Jassy posted a lengthy statement on Amazon’s website justifying the company’s planned spending and saying it would be a “meaningful leader” in AI. Heading into earnings for Amazon next week, I won't be surprised to see another bearish sentiment if Amazon raises Capex again despite beating expectations and increasing revenue and margins. @Captain's Treasure
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amit17 hours ago
Does anyone think the Mag 7 and the Semiconductors can participate together in a bull market?
In 2026, the market has obviously been extremely selective.
For the Semis (cap-ex beneficiaries) to do well, the market has taken down the Mag 7 (cap ex spenders) the entire year.
When the Mag 7 were doing well over the past few weeks, the Semis were going down.
Do they all go up together at some point or for the next few years, will the market continue to be selective with capital allocation to one sector over the other?
Source: amit
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Gene Munster18 hours ago
$Intel(INTC.US) CFO says they may tap capital markets to fund Capex. That's a well traveled road with Google and Amazon doing that recently. No shame in that approach.
Source: Gene Munster
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Hardik Shah1 day ago, 11:55 AM
📢 𝐉𝐔𝐒𝐓 𝐈𝐍: Trump Administration says the EU DMA $1 billion fine for Google threatens trade stability - Fox Business - $Amazon(AMZN.US) $Alphabet(GOOGL.US) $Meta Platforms(META.US)
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Marina BayTraded Value1 day ago, 08:50 AM
$Rocket Lab(RKLB.US)has seen a mix of constructive company-specific developments in recent days amid an ongoing stock correction. As of July 23, 2026, shares were trading around roughly 54% below the May peak, after a multi-month pullback driven by SpaceX IPO-related sector rotation, valuation concerns, earlier insider selling, and broader market pressures.
The most notable positive catalyst is a $266 million firm-fixed-price contract awarded by the U.S. Space Force (Space Systems Command) around July 20–21 for 12 suborbital launches under the HASTE program, primarily supporting hypersonic and missile-defense testing from the Pacific Spaceport Complex in Alaska. The work runs through the end of 2028, with options for six additional launches and roughly $112 million obligated upfront. This expands Rocket Lab’s defense backlog and further validates its responsive/suborbital launch capabilities.
Separately, the Space Force raised the ceiling on its National Security Space Launch (NSSL) Phase 3 Lane 1 contract vehicle from $5.6 billion to $17 billion. Rocket Lab is one of the seven qualified vendors (alongside SpaceX, ULA, Blue Origin, and others), which meaningfully increases potential future national security launch task-order opportunities through fiscal 2029.
@Captain's Treasure
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Hardik Shah1 day ago, 06:15 PM
📢 𝐉𝐔𝐒𝐓 𝐈𝐍: $Amazon(AMZN.US) Amazon Investigated Over Chinese Influence by US Senate Panel - Bloomberg
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Gene Munster2 days ago, 09:36 AM
Tonight for $Alphabet - C(GOOG.US), the key number is Cloud growth.
Streets expecting Google Cloud growth of 63% yy, unchanged from 63% in March. I think it will be above 65% with language that they’re supply constrained.
For comps:
AWS is expected to be 32% vs. 28% in March.
Azure is expected to be 40% vs 39%.
Bottom line is Google cloud is gaining share in a growth market.
Source: Gene Munster
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巴韭特2 days ago, 06:18 AM
#Trade Showcase: Trade, Show & Earn Rewards
Amazon (AMZN) closed nearly flat with a 0.00% return today, its current price at $247.70 versus my entry cost of $247.761. Trading activity stayed balanced between buyers and sellers throughout the session, with investors waiting for upcoming earnings updates about e-commerce margin improvement and AWS cloud revenue trends. No major industry news shifted market sentiment for the stock today.
This flat trading day offers a valuable investing lesson: sideways price movement often means the market is consolidating before a larger directional move. There is no need to open extra trades out of impatience when price stays close to your cost basis; waiting for clearer fundamental signals yields better long-term outcomes.
For risk management, I keep Amazon’s position size under my preset portfolio cap to control single-stock exposure. I will hold my existing position steady for now, and make future allocation adjustments only after reviewing official quarterly operational data from Amazon’s retail and cloud divisions.$Amazon(AMZN.US)
Trade Showcase: Trade, Show & Earn Rewards!
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Paradi Lab2 days ago, 02:52 PM
Tough to say if semis have bottomed now.
With most AI infra names having green days.
- From $SIVE, $Aehr Test(AEHR.US), and $IQE up over 20%.
- To $Sandisk(SNDK.US), $Micron Tech(MU.US) and $Applied Optoelectronics(AAOI.US) up over 10%.
Regardless of today's returns, the next couple of weeks will certainly be more important for more clarity:
- 22 Jul: $Alphabet(GOOGL.US) Q2: first proper gauge of the ~$750B hyperscaler capex year.
- 22-23 Jul: $AMD(AMD.US) Advancing AI event: Roadmap read through for foundry loading + advanced packaging + laser type demand into 2027.
- 23 Jul: $Intel(INTC.US) Q2: 18A yields + foundry commitments are probably the main variables w/ reads on US onshoring & packaging momentum.
- 23 Jul: $IBM(IBM.US) Q2: already lost a ~25% of its MC so let's see how brutal the market is on guidance misses.
- 24 Jul: 10% global tariff expires & new tariffs on dozens of countries expected. It'd be a stagflationary factor that feeds the overarching Fed hike narrative.
- 27 Jul: Kimi K3 full weights released
- 28-29 Jul FOMC: rate hold expected per experts + Polymarket. Important to bear in mind that rate hikes (or signals of one) would be the AI trade's first genuine regime shift.
- 29-30 Jul: $Meta Platforms(META.US), $Microsoft(MSFT.US), $Amazon(AMZN.US) earnings: more capex datapoints.
- 30 Jul: June core PCE
And any day we could get a US-Iran ceasefire. There's still a 10 day proposal on the table while strikes keep happening. A proper/confirmed truce would help oil prices and helps semis.
Just for a high level timeline of the "main" important events coming up soon.
All have some kind of impact on semis to varying degrees.
AI capex of course will be most important when the hyperscalers report earnings.
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Michael Burry TrackerJul 21 at 12:11 PM
The most successful thing Gerard Piqué ever did wasn't winning the World Cup
When he retired from Barcelona in 2022, La Liga's president called his new football league a "circus full of streamers dressed up as clowns"
Kings League is 7-a-side football, played indoors, with random rule twists, owned by YouTube and Twitch creators with millions of followers. It was built for phones, not stadiums
92,000 people showed up to Camp Nou for the final anyway
What happened next:
• 2023: More TikTok views in January alone than all of Europe's traditional leagues combined
• 2024: Revenue doubles. Raises €60,000,000. Adidas, Spotify, and Amazon sign as sponsors
• 2025: Operating in 9 countries. Nearly 20,000,000,000 social media impressions
• 2026: US launch imminent
Kings League targets a younger demographic with 85% of its viewers under 34, swapping traditional football’s 90-minute TV format for a fast-paced 40-minute stream
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Hardik ShahJul 21 at 06:15 AM
$Amazon(AMZN.US) | Wells Fargo 𝐫𝐚𝐢𝐬𝐞𝐬 𝐏𝐓 on 𝐀𝐦𝐚𝐳𝐨𝐧.𝐜𝐨𝐦 to $𝟑𝟐𝟐 from $𝟑𝟏𝟑, maintains 𝐎𝐯𝐞𝐫𝐰𝐞𝐢𝐠𝐡𝐭
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Hardik ShahJul 21 at 06:06 AM
$Amazon(AMZN.US) | Telsey 𝐫𝐞𝐢𝐭𝐞𝐫𝐚𝐭𝐞𝐬 𝐎𝐮𝐭𝐩𝐞𝐫𝐟𝐨𝐫𝐦 on 𝐀𝐦𝐚𝐳𝐨𝐧.𝐜𝐨𝐦, 𝐦𝐚𝐢𝐧𝐭𝐚𝐢𝐧𝐬 𝐏𝐓 𝐚𝐭 $𝟑𝟏𝟓
Analyst sees healthy business trends continuing in 2026, driven by market share gains, a sticky Prime member base, and its technological edge in AI.
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Equity researchJul 20 at 06:51 PM
Highlights of an expert call from a Senior Director at ARM who was a Former Director at Western Digital regarding memory:
Unique Nature of the Current Memory Upcycle
> AI Data Center Expansion: Unlike past commodity-driven cycles (such as 2017–2018 or 2021–2022), this upcycle is uniquely propelled by sustained, multi-year AI data center buildouts from hyperscalers like Amazon, Microsoft, and Meta.
> Longer Cycle Duration: While past cycles typically flipped every 18 months, strong demand and constrained supply mean suppliers are already largely sold out through 2027, with market softening potentially expected around 2028 as new fabs come online.
Memory Bandwidth & Capacity Constraints (Training vs. Inference)
> Training Phase: Demand for HBM, LPDDR, and storage remains robust to support trillion-parameter models, though the baseline of model creation is becoming more established.
> Inference & The Agentic World: Inference is the primary revenue driver (exemplified by Micron's performance) and the "token economy". As multi-user agent systems scale, demand for faster token generation explodes, creating a "double whammy" of high demand for both GPU-attached HBM and CPU-orchestrated LPDDR bandwidth.
Supply Growth, Market Share, and Competitors
> Current Market Shares:
HBM Share: SK Hynix leads at approximately 58% to 60%, followed by Samsung and Micron at around 20% each.
DRAM Share: Samsung leads overall with roughly 40%, followed by SK Hynix (30%), Micron (20%), and others/China vendors (10%).
> Strategic Allocation: Vendors are balancing high-margin LPDDR capacity (driven by tight markets in smartphones and PCs) alongside HBM.
> The CXMT Threat: China's CXMT is expected to capture growing single-digit market share, primarily focusing on older nodes and LPDDR products for domestic data centers and smartphone brands (Xiaomi, vivo, OPPO).
Long-Term Supply Agreements (LTAs) & Pricing Outlook
> Shift in LTAs: Data center customers are pushing for 3-year or even 5-year LTAs to secure guaranteed supply, giving memory vendors stronger pricing power compared to historical 1-year agreements.
> Pricing Trajectory:
HBM/DRAM/NAND: Broad consensus expects prices to trend upward through 2026 and 2027 due to supply constraints.
HBM Pricing Trajectory: Blended average selling prices (ASPs) per stack are estimated around $330 to $360 for HBM3E in 2026, projected to rise to about $500 for HBM4 in 2027 as it gets introduced, and expected to soften slightly to around $450 for HBM4E in 2028 as supply catches up.
Company Optimism & Outlook
> SK Hynix: Highly praised for its market leadership in HBM, though integrating logic dies for future iterations poses a competitive frontier.
> Samsung: Viewed favorably due to an inherent margin and pricing advantage via its in-house logic foundry (Samsung Foundry), positioning it to potentially claw back some HBM share in the 2027–2028 timeframe.
> Micron: Expected to maintain its steady ~20% market share while benefiting strongly from current supply-constrained margins.
$Micron Tech(MU.US) $EWY $DRAM
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Equity researchJul 20 at 10:32 AM
J.P. Morgan: TSMC CoWoS
CoWoS Capacity Expansion
> Capacity Increase: J.P. Morgan is raising its CoWoS capacity estimates for 2026–2028 by 1%, 9%, and 11% respectively.
> Targets: TSMC’s CoWoS capacity is expected to reach 115k, 190k, and 225k wafers per month (wfpm) by the end of 2026, 2027, and 2028.
> Strategic Shifts: TSMC is accelerating expansion at AP7 Phase 2 (reallocating capacity from SoIC to CoWoS) and is selectively outsourcing interposer manufacturing to Vanguard.
> OSAT Role: Capacity for CoWoS-like processes at Outsourced Semiconductor Assembly and Test (OSAT) providers is expected to reach 15k, 50k, and 85k wfpm by the end of 2026, 2027, and 2028, primarily to support server CPU packaging.
3D SoIC and CoPoS Outlook
> 3D SoIC: The capacity ramp is now more focused on 2028 (projected 65k wfpm) to align with mass adoption in accelerators. While 2027 may see a slight push-out to accommodate CoWoS demand, key customers like AWS, OpenAI, Meta, and NVIDIA (Feynman versions) are expected to adopt SoIC in 2028.
> CoPoS: This technology is currently in the engineering stage. Risk production is expected in early 2028, with mass production likely in 2029.
Customer Demand and Forecasts
> NVIDIA: CoWoS allocations for NVIDIA are rising, reflecting strong demand for new CPUs (Vera in 2027, Rosa in 2028) and accelerators. All NVIDIA accelerator and Co-Packaged Optics (CPO) products are on CoWoS-L at TSMC.
> AMD: Estimates for AMD are rising significantly in 2027–2028, driven by the Venice server CPU family, which will largely utilize a CoWoS-L-like process from ASE.
> CPUs and ASICs: Server CPUs (e.g., NVDA Vera, AMD Venice) have emerged as a primary upside catalyst for CoWoS demand in 2027. Other programs like Google’s TPU and AWS’s Trainium continue to ramp, though ASICs for companies like Microsoft and Meta remain at a smaller scale.
> Supply Chain Roles: AWS and Alchip are expected to remain the primary suppliers for the Neuronlink and UALink versions of Trainium 4. Marvell may take on some share for specific variants that utilize "NVLink fusion" based interconnects. While Trainium 4 volumes in 2028 are expected to be relatively flat compared to Trainium 3 volumes in 2027, the wafer consumption and average selling prices (ASPs) for these chips are expected to be significantly higher.
> 2027 as a Key Ramp Year: While TPU and Trainium are currently the only large-scale ASIC programs, 2027 is viewed as a key year for others to ramp, with a heavy focus on Meta’s MTIA and Microsoft’s Maia.
Other Technological Notes
> Intel EMIB: Intel’s EMIB-T process is seeing incremental demand, notably for the MediaTek TPUv9 Humufish. However, substrate capacity remains a limiting factor for this process. Intel’s EMIB process is positioned as a cheaper alternative, with costs estimated at approximately 50% of TSMC's CoWoS-L packaging technology. Current substrate-level yields for the EMIB process are around 60%, which is considered acceptable by the researchers for a process 1–1.5 years away from ramp. However, substrate capacity is viewed as a key limiting factor for capacity expansion because the processes for substrate build-up and embedding the silicon bridge steps currently have low yields.
$Intel(INTC.US) $Alphabet(GOOGL.US) $AMD(AMD.US) $NVIDIA(NVDA.US) $Taiwan Semiconductor(TSM.US)
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NewUser_zS0M8w Nebius Return RateMicrosoftJul 19 at 10:55 AM
$NVIDIA(NVDA.US) The market has had some concerns regarding Nvidia heading before CEO Jensen addressed them. The first concern is product delays. The market had previously rumored that the next-generation Rubin Ultra architecture might be delayed to 2028 for delivery, raising investor worries about a gap in Nvidia's product iterations. However, Jensen Huang denied this rumor and emphasized that Rubin Ultra is still scheduled to ship on plan. For Nvidia, the stability of its product roadmap is critical, as AI customers' procurement plans, data center construction pacing, and capital expenditure budgets all revolve around Nvidia's GPU architecture iterations. Second concern is whether cloud service providers' self-developed ASICs will eat into Nvidia's market share. Amazon, Google & other major cloud providers are all pushing forward with self-developed AI chips, sparking market worries that these custom chips will erode demand for Nvidia GPUs. However, by leveraging its CUDA ecosystem, Nvidia can still maintain a comprehensive cost advantage in most commercial scenarios. @Captain's Treasure
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巴韭特Jul 19 at 01:17 AM
$Amazon(AMZN.US)#Trade Showcase: Trade, Show & Earn Rewards
Amazon (AMZN) edged down 0.40% in today’s session, trading at $246.71 against my average cost of $247.761. I built this position to gain exposure to the firm’s cloud computing leadership and improving e-commerce operational efficiency. Today’s modest dip comes from broad market rebalancing among mega-cap tech shares rather than deterioration in Amazon’s business fundamentals.
This trade reminds me to separate temporary market trading flows from underlying company performance. Minor single-day drawdowns do not invalidate long-term investment logic anchored to durable competitive advantages.
On risk management, I allocate a fixed portion of capital to AMZN and avoid overtrading on trivial price moves. I will focus on quarterly AWS revenue and retail unit economics to evaluate holding performance, reserving position adjustments only for material shifts in fundamental trends.
Trade Showcase: Trade, Show & Earn Rewards!
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升烟Jul 19 at 12:40 AM
I'm still in a daze. I bet on this entry. My FOMO had been suppressed for a long time, and now the drop has cured my FOMO, but it gave me panic disorder.
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Captain's Watch
☕️ [Task Coins Giveaway] Daily Market Talk — Chips Break Ranks as Inflation Cools
Inflation cooled again and the market pushed higher, but the AI trade split apart. Big Tech and Apple (a new record) led the S&P up, while memory chips got dumped: SK Hynix -9%, Micron -8%. Add SpaceX...
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Equity researchJul 18 at 10:02 PM
Mizuho Securities: Optics
Market Trends & Technologies
> Optical Circuit Switches (OCS): OCS is gaining traction among hyperscalers, with Google (GOOGL) leading adoption in its Jupiter Network and other hyperscalers like Amazon (AMZN) and Microsoft (MSFT) exploring its use. Lumentum (LITE) and Huber+Suhner (HUBN) are identified as key partners in this space.
> Co-Packaged Optics (CPO) vs. Near-Packaged Optics (NPO): While interest in CPO continues to grow (with potential deliveries in 2028/29E), industry focus is shifting toward NPO in the near-term because it is easier to deploy and requires less co-integration than CPO, despite being less power-efficient.
> Silicon Photonics (SiPho) & InP: The supply chain for SiPho remains constrained, with demand potentially outpacing foundry capacities at GFS and TSEM. A transition to 6-inch wafers is underway to help alleviate supply tightness by providing ~130% higher wafer area.
> Micro-LED (uLED) Potential: uLED/ALC is emerging as a potential disruptor for networking, offering 20-30m reach at approximately 1/5th the cost of optical pluggables, with no InP supply constraints. Credo (CRDO) is noted as a key player in this space, targeting deliveries starting in 2027-28E.
Company-Specific Updates (Lumentum & Credo)
Lumentum (LITE):
> Growth Drivers: Lumentum management noted that the "best is yet to come" as several major growth drivers—optical scale-up, optical scale-out, and optical circuit switches (OCS)—are just beginning to ramp up and are not yet fully reflected in their numbers.
> 1.6T Transition: The company is seeing a significant tailwind from the transition to 1.6T transceivers, led by NVIDIA and Google, with 200-gig EMLs providing roughly double the average selling price (ASP) of previous generations.
> Scale-Out Business: The partnership with NVIDIA for high-powered lasers in CPO switch platforms is a major focus, with expected incremental revenue of $50 million to $100 million in the fourth quarter of fiscal 2026 alone.
Credo Technology (CRDO):
> Market Outperformance: Credo has significantly outperformed larger rivals like NVIDIA and Broadcom in share price gains during 2026, largely due to its specialized role in high-speed, energy-efficient connectivity.
> Optical Portfolio: Following its acquisition of DustPhotonics, Credo has strengthened its silicon photonics capabilities. The company expects its optical connectivity business to generate over $600 million in revenue in fiscal 2027, supported by a 1.6T networking transition.
$Lumentum(LITE.US) $Credo Tech(CRDO.US) $Broadcom(AVGO.US) $NVIDIA(NVDA.US) $STMicroelectronics NV(STM.US) $Alphabet(GOOGL.US) $Meta Platforms(META.US) $Tower Semicon(TSEM.US) $Marvell Tech(MRVL.US) $Taiwan Semiconductor(TSM.US) $Microsoft(MSFT.US) $Amazon(AMZN.US)
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amitJul 17 at 12:45 PM
$Meta Platforms(META.US)
BREAKING: Meta is in talks to rent computing capacity to Anthropic in a deal worth up to $10B over 2 years, as per the New York Times.
Meta went down today on news that they hired a senior AWS executive to help build their cloud division.
Why? Because it was confirmation that they are doubling down on capex and selling compute, which means their FCF will take a hit. Ironically, the semis should have been up on this news but the Kimi K3 headlines have kept them down.
Now, Meta is slightly reversing on this headline about selling compute to Anthropic…which begs the question…if the market is happy about Meta selling compute to a big lab, why are they upset about Meta spending more on capex in order to build that compute business?
Tons of weird narratives conflicting with each other, but it looks like META is officially getting into the neocloud game.
Source: amit

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NewUser_CkrdqW Rate Of Return17 hours ago
$Amazon(AMZN.US) Big tech companies, particularly Amazon and Alphabet, are significantly increasing capital expenditures, with plans totaling $700 billion this year. Alphabet announced a rise in capex to between $195 billion and $205 billion, driven by strong demand exceeding current computing capacity, despite a 8% stock decline following the announcement. I believe it’s very likely to affect other Mag 7 companies that are spending huge as well. Firstly, Amazon is a much larger cloud provider than Alphabet. Amazon Web Services has the greatest global share of the cloud computing market at 28%, followed by Microsoft at 21% and Google Cloud at 14%. Secondly, Amazon has been very public and bullish about its capex. In a letter to shareholders in April, CEO Andy Jassy posted a lengthy statement on Amazon’s website justifying the company’s planned spending and saying it would be a “meaningful leader” in AI. Heading into earnings for Amazon next week, I won't be surprised to see another bearish sentiment if Amazon raises Capex again despite beating expectations and increasing revenue and margins. @Captain's Treasure
Trade Showcase: Trade, Show & Earn Rewards!
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amit17 hours ago
Does anyone think the Mag 7 and the Semiconductors can participate together in a bull market?
In 2026, the market has obviously been extremely selective.
For the Semis (cap-ex beneficiaries) to do well, the market has taken down the Mag 7 (cap ex spenders) the entire year.
When the Mag 7 were doing well over the past few weeks, the Semis were going down.
Do they all go up together at some point or for the next few years, will the market continue to be selective with capital allocation to one sector over the other?
Source: amit
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Gene Munster18 hours ago
$Intel(INTC.US) CFO says they may tap capital markets to fund Capex. That's a well traveled road with Google and Amazon doing that recently. No shame in that approach.
Source: Gene Munster
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Hardik Shah1 day ago, 11:55 AM
📢 𝐉𝐔𝐒𝐓 𝐈𝐍: Trump Administration says the EU DMA $1 billion fine for Google threatens trade stability - Fox Business - $Amazon(AMZN.US) $Alphabet(GOOGL.US) $Meta Platforms(META.US)
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Marina BayTraded Value1 day ago, 08:50 AM
$Rocket Lab(RKLB.US)has seen a mix of constructive company-specific developments in recent days amid an ongoing stock correction. As of July 23, 2026, shares were trading around roughly 54% below the May peak, after a multi-month pullback driven by SpaceX IPO-related sector rotation, valuation concerns, earlier insider selling, and broader market pressures.
The most notable positive catalyst is a $266 million firm-fixed-price contract awarded by the U.S. Space Force (Space Systems Command) around July 20–21 for 12 suborbital launches under the HASTE program, primarily supporting hypersonic and missile-defense testing from the Pacific Spaceport Complex in Alaska. The work runs through the end of 2028, with options for six additional launches and roughly $112 million obligated upfront. This expands Rocket Lab’s defense backlog and further validates its responsive/suborbital launch capabilities.
Separately, the Space Force raised the ceiling on its National Security Space Launch (NSSL) Phase 3 Lane 1 contract vehicle from $5.6 billion to $17 billion. Rocket Lab is one of the seven qualified vendors (alongside SpaceX, ULA, Blue Origin, and others), which meaningfully increases potential future national security launch task-order opportunities through fiscal 2029.
@Captain's Treasure
Trade Showcase: Trade, Show & Earn Rewards!
H
Hardik Shah1 day ago, 06:15 PM
📢 𝐉𝐔𝐒𝐓 𝐈𝐍: $Amazon(AMZN.US) Amazon Investigated Over Chinese Influence by US Senate Panel - Bloomberg
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Gene Munster2 days ago, 09:36 AM
Tonight for $Alphabet - C(GOOG.US), the key number is Cloud growth.
Streets expecting Google Cloud growth of 63% yy, unchanged from 63% in March. I think it will be above 65% with language that they’re supply constrained.
For comps:
AWS is expected to be 32% vs. 28% in March.
Azure is expected to be 40% vs 39%.
Bottom line is Google cloud is gaining share in a growth market.
Source: Gene Munster
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巴韭特2 days ago, 06:18 AM
#Trade Showcase: Trade, Show & Earn Rewards
Amazon (AMZN) closed nearly flat with a 0.00% return today, its current price at $247.70 versus my entry cost of $247.761. Trading activity stayed balanced between buyers and sellers throughout the session, with investors waiting for upcoming earnings updates about e-commerce margin improvement and AWS cloud revenue trends. No major industry news shifted market sentiment for the stock today.
This flat trading day offers a valuable investing lesson: sideways price movement often means the market is consolidating before a larger directional move. There is no need to open extra trades out of impatience when price stays close to your cost basis; waiting for clearer fundamental signals yields better long-term outcomes.
For risk management, I keep Amazon’s position size under my preset portfolio cap to control single-stock exposure. I will hold my existing position steady for now, and make future allocation adjustments only after reviewing official quarterly operational data from Amazon’s retail and cloud divisions.$Amazon(AMZN.US)
Trade Showcase: Trade, Show & Earn Rewards!
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Paradi Lab2 days ago, 02:52 PM
Tough to say if semis have bottomed now.
With most AI infra names having green days.
- From $SIVE, $Aehr Test(AEHR.US), and $IQE up over 20%.
- To $Sandisk(SNDK.US), $Micron Tech(MU.US) and $Applied Optoelectronics(AAOI.US) up over 10%.
Regardless of today's returns, the next couple of weeks will certainly be more important for more clarity:
- 22 Jul: $Alphabet(GOOGL.US) Q2: first proper gauge of the ~$750B hyperscaler capex year.
- 22-23 Jul: $AMD(AMD.US) Advancing AI event: Roadmap read through for foundry loading + advanced packaging + laser type demand into 2027.
- 23 Jul: $Intel(INTC.US) Q2: 18A yields + foundry commitments are probably the main variables w/ reads on US onshoring & packaging momentum.
- 23 Jul: $IBM(IBM.US) Q2: already lost a ~25% of its MC so let's see how brutal the market is on guidance misses.
- 24 Jul: 10% global tariff expires & new tariffs on dozens of countries expected. It'd be a stagflationary factor that feeds the overarching Fed hike narrative.
- 27 Jul: Kimi K3 full weights released
- 28-29 Jul FOMC: rate hold expected per experts + Polymarket. Important to bear in mind that rate hikes (or signals of one) would be the AI trade's first genuine regime shift.
- 29-30 Jul: $Meta Platforms(META.US), $Microsoft(MSFT.US), $Amazon(AMZN.US) earnings: more capex datapoints.
- 30 Jul: June core PCE
And any day we could get a US-Iran ceasefire. There's still a 10 day proposal on the table while strikes keep happening. A proper/confirmed truce would help oil prices and helps semis.
Just for a high level timeline of the "main" important events coming up soon.
All have some kind of impact on semis to varying degrees.
AI capex of course will be most important when the hyperscalers report earnings.
M
Michael Burry TrackerJul 21 at 12:11 PM
The most successful thing Gerard Piqué ever did wasn't winning the World Cup
When he retired from Barcelona in 2022, La Liga's president called his new football league a "circus full of streamers dressed up as clowns"
Kings League is 7-a-side football, played indoors, with random rule twists, owned by YouTube and Twitch creators with millions of followers. It was built for phones, not stadiums
92,000 people showed up to Camp Nou for the final anyway
What happened next:
• 2023: More TikTok views in January alone than all of Europe's traditional leagues combined
• 2024: Revenue doubles. Raises €60,000,000. Adidas, Spotify, and Amazon sign as sponsors
• 2025: Operating in 9 countries. Nearly 20,000,000,000 social media impressions
• 2026: US launch imminent
Kings League targets a younger demographic with 85% of its viewers under 34, swapping traditional football’s 90-minute TV format for a fast-paced 40-minute stream
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Hardik ShahJul 21 at 06:15 AM
$Amazon(AMZN.US) | Wells Fargo 𝐫𝐚𝐢𝐬𝐞𝐬 𝐏𝐓 on 𝐀𝐦𝐚𝐳𝐨𝐧.𝐜𝐨𝐦 to $𝟑𝟐𝟐 from $𝟑𝟏𝟑, maintains 𝐎𝐯𝐞𝐫𝐰𝐞𝐢𝐠𝐡𝐭
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Hardik ShahJul 21 at 06:06 AM
$Amazon(AMZN.US) | Telsey 𝐫𝐞𝐢𝐭𝐞𝐫𝐚𝐭𝐞𝐬 𝐎𝐮𝐭𝐩𝐞𝐫𝐟𝐨𝐫𝐦 on 𝐀𝐦𝐚𝐳𝐨𝐧.𝐜𝐨𝐦, 𝐦𝐚𝐢𝐧𝐭𝐚𝐢𝐧𝐬 𝐏𝐓 𝐚𝐭 $𝟑𝟏𝟓
Analyst sees healthy business trends continuing in 2026, driven by market share gains, a sticky Prime member base, and its technological edge in AI.
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Equity researchJul 20 at 06:51 PM
Highlights of an expert call from a Senior Director at ARM who was a Former Director at Western Digital regarding memory:
Unique Nature of the Current Memory Upcycle
> AI Data Center Expansion: Unlike past commodity-driven cycles (such as 2017–2018 or 2021–2022), this upcycle is uniquely propelled by sustained, multi-year AI data center buildouts from hyperscalers like Amazon, Microsoft, and Meta.
> Longer Cycle Duration: While past cycles typically flipped every 18 months, strong demand and constrained supply mean suppliers are already largely sold out through 2027, with market softening potentially expected around 2028 as new fabs come online.
Memory Bandwidth & Capacity Constraints (Training vs. Inference)
> Training Phase: Demand for HBM, LPDDR, and storage remains robust to support trillion-parameter models, though the baseline of model creation is becoming more established.
> Inference & The Agentic World: Inference is the primary revenue driver (exemplified by Micron's performance) and the "token economy". As multi-user agent systems scale, demand for faster token generation explodes, creating a "double whammy" of high demand for both GPU-attached HBM and CPU-orchestrated LPDDR bandwidth.
Supply Growth, Market Share, and Competitors
> Current Market Shares:
HBM Share: SK Hynix leads at approximately 58% to 60%, followed by Samsung and Micron at around 20% each.
DRAM Share: Samsung leads overall with roughly 40%, followed by SK Hynix (30%), Micron (20%), and others/China vendors (10%).
> Strategic Allocation: Vendors are balancing high-margin LPDDR capacity (driven by tight markets in smartphones and PCs) alongside HBM.
> The CXMT Threat: China's CXMT is expected to capture growing single-digit market share, primarily focusing on older nodes and LPDDR products for domestic data centers and smartphone brands (Xiaomi, vivo, OPPO).
Long-Term Supply Agreements (LTAs) & Pricing Outlook
> Shift in LTAs: Data center customers are pushing for 3-year or even 5-year LTAs to secure guaranteed supply, giving memory vendors stronger pricing power compared to historical 1-year agreements.
> Pricing Trajectory:
HBM/DRAM/NAND: Broad consensus expects prices to trend upward through 2026 and 2027 due to supply constraints.
HBM Pricing Trajectory: Blended average selling prices (ASPs) per stack are estimated around $330 to $360 for HBM3E in 2026, projected to rise to about $500 for HBM4 in 2027 as it gets introduced, and expected to soften slightly to around $450 for HBM4E in 2028 as supply catches up.
Company Optimism & Outlook
> SK Hynix: Highly praised for its market leadership in HBM, though integrating logic dies for future iterations poses a competitive frontier.
> Samsung: Viewed favorably due to an inherent margin and pricing advantage via its in-house logic foundry (Samsung Foundry), positioning it to potentially claw back some HBM share in the 2027–2028 timeframe.
> Micron: Expected to maintain its steady ~20% market share while benefiting strongly from current supply-constrained margins.
$Micron Tech(MU.US) $EWY $DRAM
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Equity researchJul 20 at 10:32 AM
J.P. Morgan: TSMC CoWoS
CoWoS Capacity Expansion
> Capacity Increase: J.P. Morgan is raising its CoWoS capacity estimates for 2026–2028 by 1%, 9%, and 11% respectively.
> Targets: TSMC’s CoWoS capacity is expected to reach 115k, 190k, and 225k wafers per month (wfpm) by the end of 2026, 2027, and 2028.
> Strategic Shifts: TSMC is accelerating expansion at AP7 Phase 2 (reallocating capacity from SoIC to CoWoS) and is selectively outsourcing interposer manufacturing to Vanguard.
> OSAT Role: Capacity for CoWoS-like processes at Outsourced Semiconductor Assembly and Test (OSAT) providers is expected to reach 15k, 50k, and 85k wfpm by the end of 2026, 2027, and 2028, primarily to support server CPU packaging.
3D SoIC and CoPoS Outlook
> 3D SoIC: The capacity ramp is now more focused on 2028 (projected 65k wfpm) to align with mass adoption in accelerators. While 2027 may see a slight push-out to accommodate CoWoS demand, key customers like AWS, OpenAI, Meta, and NVIDIA (Feynman versions) are expected to adopt SoIC in 2028.
> CoPoS: This technology is currently in the engineering stage. Risk production is expected in early 2028, with mass production likely in 2029.
Customer Demand and Forecasts
> NVIDIA: CoWoS allocations for NVIDIA are rising, reflecting strong demand for new CPUs (Vera in 2027, Rosa in 2028) and accelerators. All NVIDIA accelerator and Co-Packaged Optics (CPO) products are on CoWoS-L at TSMC.
> AMD: Estimates for AMD are rising significantly in 2027–2028, driven by the Venice server CPU family, which will largely utilize a CoWoS-L-like process from ASE.
> CPUs and ASICs: Server CPUs (e.g., NVDA Vera, AMD Venice) have emerged as a primary upside catalyst for CoWoS demand in 2027. Other programs like Google’s TPU and AWS’s Trainium continue to ramp, though ASICs for companies like Microsoft and Meta remain at a smaller scale.
> Supply Chain Roles: AWS and Alchip are expected to remain the primary suppliers for the Neuronlink and UALink versions of Trainium 4. Marvell may take on some share for specific variants that utilize "NVLink fusion" based interconnects. While Trainium 4 volumes in 2028 are expected to be relatively flat compared to Trainium 3 volumes in 2027, the wafer consumption and average selling prices (ASPs) for these chips are expected to be significantly higher.
> 2027 as a Key Ramp Year: While TPU and Trainium are currently the only large-scale ASIC programs, 2027 is viewed as a key year for others to ramp, with a heavy focus on Meta’s MTIA and Microsoft’s Maia.
Other Technological Notes
> Intel EMIB: Intel’s EMIB-T process is seeing incremental demand, notably for the MediaTek TPUv9 Humufish. However, substrate capacity remains a limiting factor for this process. Intel’s EMIB process is positioned as a cheaper alternative, with costs estimated at approximately 50% of TSMC's CoWoS-L packaging technology. Current substrate-level yields for the EMIB process are around 60%, which is considered acceptable by the researchers for a process 1–1.5 years away from ramp. However, substrate capacity is viewed as a key limiting factor for capacity expansion because the processes for substrate build-up and embedding the silicon bridge steps currently have low yields.
$Intel(INTC.US) $Alphabet(GOOGL.US) $AMD(AMD.US) $NVIDIA(NVDA.US) $Taiwan Semiconductor(TSM.US)
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NewUser_zS0M8w Nebius Return RateMicrosoftJul 19 at 10:55 AM
$NVIDIA(NVDA.US) The market has had some concerns regarding Nvidia heading before CEO Jensen addressed them. The first concern is product delays. The market had previously rumored that the next-generation Rubin Ultra architecture might be delayed to 2028 for delivery, raising investor worries about a gap in Nvidia's product iterations. However, Jensen Huang denied this rumor and emphasized that Rubin Ultra is still scheduled to ship on plan. For Nvidia, the stability of its product roadmap is critical, as AI customers' procurement plans, data center construction pacing, and capital expenditure budgets all revolve around Nvidia's GPU architecture iterations. Second concern is whether cloud service providers' self-developed ASICs will eat into Nvidia's market share. Amazon, Google & other major cloud providers are all pushing forward with self-developed AI chips, sparking market worries that these custom chips will erode demand for Nvidia GPUs. However, by leveraging its CUDA ecosystem, Nvidia can still maintain a comprehensive cost advantage in most commercial scenarios. @Captain's Treasure
Trade Showcase: Trade, Show & Earn Rewards!
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巴韭特Jul 19 at 01:17 AM
$Amazon(AMZN.US)#Trade Showcase: Trade, Show & Earn Rewards
Amazon (AMZN) edged down 0.40% in today’s session, trading at $246.71 against my average cost of $247.761. I built this position to gain exposure to the firm’s cloud computing leadership and improving e-commerce operational efficiency. Today’s modest dip comes from broad market rebalancing among mega-cap tech shares rather than deterioration in Amazon’s business fundamentals.
This trade reminds me to separate temporary market trading flows from underlying company performance. Minor single-day drawdowns do not invalidate long-term investment logic anchored to durable competitive advantages.
On risk management, I allocate a fixed portion of capital to AMZN and avoid overtrading on trivial price moves. I will focus on quarterly AWS revenue and retail unit economics to evaluate holding performance, reserving position adjustments only for material shifts in fundamental trends.
Trade Showcase: Trade, Show & Earn Rewards!
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升烟Jul 19 at 12:40 AM
I'm still in a daze. I bet on this entry. My FOMO had been suppressed for a long time, and now the drop has cured my FOMO, but it gave me panic disorder.
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Captain's Watch
☕️ [Task Coins Giveaway] Daily Market Talk — Chips Break Ranks as Inflation Cools
Inflation cooled again and the market pushed higher, but the AI trade split apart. Big Tech and Apple (a new record) led the S&P up, while memory chips got dumped: SK Hynix -9%, Micron -8%. Add SpaceX...
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Equity researchJul 18 at 10:02 PM
Mizuho Securities: Optics
Market Trends & Technologies
> Optical Circuit Switches (OCS): OCS is gaining traction among hyperscalers, with Google (GOOGL) leading adoption in its Jupiter Network and other hyperscalers like Amazon (AMZN) and Microsoft (MSFT) exploring its use. Lumentum (LITE) and Huber+Suhner (HUBN) are identified as key partners in this space.
> Co-Packaged Optics (CPO) vs. Near-Packaged Optics (NPO): While interest in CPO continues to grow (with potential deliveries in 2028/29E), industry focus is shifting toward NPO in the near-term because it is easier to deploy and requires less co-integration than CPO, despite being less power-efficient.
> Silicon Photonics (SiPho) & InP: The supply chain for SiPho remains constrained, with demand potentially outpacing foundry capacities at GFS and TSEM. A transition to 6-inch wafers is underway to help alleviate supply tightness by providing ~130% higher wafer area.
> Micro-LED (uLED) Potential: uLED/ALC is emerging as a potential disruptor for networking, offering 20-30m reach at approximately 1/5th the cost of optical pluggables, with no InP supply constraints. Credo (CRDO) is noted as a key player in this space, targeting deliveries starting in 2027-28E.
Company-Specific Updates (Lumentum & Credo)
Lumentum (LITE):
> Growth Drivers: Lumentum management noted that the "best is yet to come" as several major growth drivers—optical scale-up, optical scale-out, and optical circuit switches (OCS)—are just beginning to ramp up and are not yet fully reflected in their numbers.
> 1.6T Transition: The company is seeing a significant tailwind from the transition to 1.6T transceivers, led by NVIDIA and Google, with 200-gig EMLs providing roughly double the average selling price (ASP) of previous generations.
> Scale-Out Business: The partnership with NVIDIA for high-powered lasers in CPO switch platforms is a major focus, with expected incremental revenue of $50 million to $100 million in the fourth quarter of fiscal 2026 alone.
Credo Technology (CRDO):
> Market Outperformance: Credo has significantly outperformed larger rivals like NVIDIA and Broadcom in share price gains during 2026, largely due to its specialized role in high-speed, energy-efficient connectivity.
> Optical Portfolio: Following its acquisition of DustPhotonics, Credo has strengthened its silicon photonics capabilities. The company expects its optical connectivity business to generate over $600 million in revenue in fiscal 2027, supported by a 1.6T networking transition.
$Lumentum(LITE.US) $Credo Tech(CRDO.US) $Broadcom(AVGO.US) $NVIDIA(NVDA.US) $STMicroelectronics NV(STM.US) $Alphabet(GOOGL.US) $Meta Platforms(META.US) $Tower Semicon(TSEM.US) $Marvell Tech(MRVL.US) $Taiwan Semiconductor(TSM.US) $Microsoft(MSFT.US) $Amazon(AMZN.US)
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amitJul 17 at 12:45 PM
$Meta Platforms(META.US)
BREAKING: Meta is in talks to rent computing capacity to Anthropic in a deal worth up to $10B over 2 years, as per the New York Times.
Meta went down today on news that they hired a senior AWS executive to help build their cloud division.
Why? Because it was confirmation that they are doubling down on capex and selling compute, which means their FCF will take a hit. Ironically, the semis should have been up on this news but the Kimi K3 headlines have kept them down.
Now, Meta is slightly reversing on this headline about selling compute to Anthropic…which begs the question…if the market is happy about Meta selling compute to a big lab, why are they upset about Meta spending more on capex in order to build that compute business?
Tons of weird narratives conflicting with each other, but it looks like META is officially getting into the neocloud game.
Source: amit