CRWV 2X Short ETF

$Coreweave(CRWV.US) My least favorite neocloud. Moves 1% up on contracts, down 20% on an average day.

Setup: Short

Entry: Perhaps now

Stop: 75

T1: 53-50

Former Senior Finance Role at Nebius Group says,

"The problem of CoreWeave is their business model is sign a contract and then allocate data centres, then allocate GPUs and buy the GPUs they don't have and then start project management. The whole cycle within CoreWeave is about 24 months. The majority of their revenue, maybe 95% or more is still Hopper revenue."

"There are neoclouds like Nebius who do it a bit different. We were building data centre capacity, buying GPUs without knowing to whom we're going to sell it to. Coreweave only start working when they have a signed contract and then they're going to look for the data centre capacity and the GPUs, which is fully hedged. It's like without risk, you have always a coverage by a five-year contract. The disadvantage is you can't monetise fast."

> Revenue per Gigawatt Trends & Waves: Revenue per gigawatt does not decline in a straight line; instead, it moves in cycles tied to GPU generations. Prices spike at the launch of a new GPU generation (like Blackwell or Vera Rubin) and then gradually decrease over time within multi-year contracts. CoreWeave’s revenue per gigawatt has decreased over recent quarters because older contracts signed during peak Hopper pricing are rolling alongside newly added capacity at lower rates.

> Business Model Differences (CoreWeave vs. Nebius):

CoreWeave follows a risk-hedged model where they sign multi-year contracts (typically five years) with major customers first, and then procure data center space and Nvidia GPUs.

Nebius often builds out data center capacity and secures hardware proactively before locking down every final end customer, allowing them to monetize faster and cater to urgent capacity needs or mid-sized enterprises.

> Long-Term Outlook on Hyperscalers: Nebius anticipates that hyperscalers (like Microsoft and Meta) will only utilize neoclouds as stopgaps for five to eight years until they fully internalize their own infrastructure. Consequently, Nebius is positioning itself as a "mini hyperscaler" targeting enterprises, European entities seeking data sovereignty away from U.S. jurisdiction, and diverse corporate clients.

> Memory Pricing & Unit Economics Impact: Memory prices (such as high-bandwidth memory) cannot typically be locked in when striking multi-year customer agreements. However, memory accounts for a relatively small percentage of overall unit economics (e.g., roughly 2% to 3% historically), meaning even a 2x-3x price spike only minorly impacts contribution margins. Neoclouds offset these headwinds through advanced natural air and water cooling (saving up to 30% on power costs) or by slightly extending GPU depreciation timelines (e.g., from 5 to 5.5 or 6 years).

> Data Center Outfitting Timelines: For a standard 50MW greenfield powered shell, outfitting and bringing servers online takes about two months, while larger 300MW sites with roughly 90,000 GPUs take 3 to 4 months. While moving from Hopper to Blackwell requires similar configuration windows (around 6 to 10 weeks), upcoming Vera Rubin chips are vastly more powerful and thermally intense, meaning older colocation sites will struggle to handle them without expensive retrofits.

> Financing & Profitability Realities: CoreWeave utilizes heavy debt financing (such as recent deals at a 9.5% interest rate), creating a large interest expense burden. While CoreWeave anticipates operating margins jumping significantly as new capacity comes online, the expert is skeptical of rapid jumps (such as 1% to 16% in the short term) given high capital costs and market impatience regarding profitability.

> GPU Utilization Targets: Neoclouds actively target high capacity utilization rates exceeding 90% (often 94% to 95%) on external customer data centers to maintain competitive pricing against hyperscalers, who typically settle for 75% to 80%.

$Nebius(NBIS.US) $Coreweave(CRWV.US)

GOOGLE RAISES CAPEX FROM $190B TO $205B FOR FISCAL YEAR 2026

2027 CAPEX NOT DISCLOSED BUT WILL BE “SIGNIFICANTLY MORE”

Semis loving it after hours but Google is taking the hit as the market digests what “significantly more” means 😂

$NVIDIA(NVDA.US) $Nebius(NBIS.US) $Coreweave(CRWV.US) $IREN(IREN.US) $Micron Tech(MU.US)

Source: amit

📢 𝗝𝗨𝗦𝗧 𝗜𝗡: Anam Selects $Coreweave(CRWV.US) CoreWeave AI Cloud to Power Interactive AI Avatars

👉 𝗞𝗲𝘆 𝗛𝗶𝗴𝗵𝗹𝗶𝗴𝗵𝘁𝘀:

➤ 𝗔𝗻𝗮𝗺 selects 𝗖𝗼𝗿𝗲𝗪𝗲𝗮𝘃𝗲 𝗖𝗹𝗼𝘂𝗱 to power AI avatar development.

➤ Deployment uses 𝗡𝗩𝗜𝗗𝗜𝗔 𝗥𝗧𝗫 𝗣𝗥𝗢 𝟲𝟬𝟬𝟬 𝗕𝗹𝗮𝗰𝗸𝘄𝗲𝗹𝗹 Server Edition GPUs.

➤ Inference workloads will run across 𝗨.𝗦. and 𝗘𝘂𝗿𝗼𝗽𝗲 infrastructure.

➤ Anam delivers interactive avatars with response times as low as 𝟭𝟴𝟬 𝗺𝗶𝗹𝗹𝗶𝘀𝗲𝗰𝗼𝗻𝗱𝘀.

➤ CoreWeave provides 𝘂𝗹𝘁𝗿𝗮-𝗹𝗼𝘄 𝗹𝗮𝘁𝗲𝗻𝗰𝘆 AI infrastructure for production.

➤ Platform supports consistent performance across 𝗱𝗲𝘃𝗲𝗹𝗼𝗽𝗺𝗲𝗻𝘁 and production.

➤ CoreWeave cites industry-leading 𝗠𝗟𝗣𝗲𝗿𝗳 and 𝗖𝗹𝘂𝘀𝘁𝗲𝗿𝗠𝗔𝗫 benchmark performance.

➤ Company also highlights top 𝗶𝗻𝗳𝗲𝗿𝗲𝗻𝗰𝗲 𝘀𝗽𝗲𝗲𝗱 and price-performance rankings.

👉 𝗘𝘅𝗽𝗲𝗿𝘁 𝗦𝘁𝗮𝘁𝗲𝗺𝗲𝗻𝘁𝘀:

𝗕𝗲𝗻 𝗖𝗮𝗿𝗿, CTO of Anam:

“Our interactive avatars create more natural, emotionally intelligent interactions in real time. That's why our customers see users stay longer, adopt faster, and convert more: a real-time avatar holds attention in a way text and voice never have. But it's demanding. Each avatar conversation takes a lot of compute. CoreWeave Cloud gives us the ability to run our avatars at large scale without compromising on uptime SLAs or response latency.”

𝗝𝗼𝗻 𝗝𝗼𝗻𝗲𝘀, Chief Revenue Officer of CoreWeave:

“Real-time AI interactions leave no room for latency or reliability gaps. CoreWeave’s AI cloud platform gives Anam the inference performance and global footprint to deploy emotionally responsive AI avatars at scale, where production performance is what users actually experience.”

🚀 The NVIDIA Vera Rubin platform is here, with 10x better performance per watt.

➡️ The NVIDIA ecosystem, including @CoreWeave, @GoogleCloud, @Micosoft, and @Oracle Cloud, are standing up NVIDIA Vera Rubin NVL72 to deliver the lowest token cost for the agentic era.

➡️ NVIDIA Vera Rubin NVL72 on CoreWeave demonstrates 10x more tokens per megawatt than Blackwell in their first measured performance.

➡️ Benchmark results from @DeepInfra show that the NVIDIA Vera CPU is more than 2x as fast and can support more concurrent AI agents compared with other CPUs.

🔗 Read more:

Source: NVIDIA_X

$IREN(IREN.US) +19.69% after revising ARR target to $4B+ from new AI cloud contracts. Its customer base now includes Microsoft, Nvidia, Perplexity, and Figure.

$Hut 8 Mining(HUT.US) +10.45% off a 15Y $9.8B AI DC lease

$Cipher Digital(CIFR.US) +16.76%

$CleanSpark(CLSK.US) +13.7%

$Whitefiber(WYFI.US) +9.18%

$Nebius(NBIS.US) and $Coreweave(CRWV.US) are taking their time in the shower.

But does look like Neoclouds/Colo players are sharply recovering following new catalysts, such as Kimi compute shortage news and new contracts.

$Nebius(NBIS.US) | Northland maintains 𝐎𝐮𝐭𝐩𝐞𝐫𝐟𝐨𝐫𝐦 on 𝐍𝐞𝐛𝐢𝐮𝐬 𝐆𝐫𝐨𝐮𝐩, 𝐫𝐚𝐢𝐬𝐞𝐬 𝐏𝐓 𝐭𝐨 $𝟒𝟏𝟎 𝐟𝐫𝐨𝐦 $𝟐𝟒𝟖

Analyst sees a new asset-light model enabling Nebius to capture ~14% of the AIaaS market, justifying a valuation similar to industry peer CRWV.

📢 𝐉𝐔𝐒𝐓 𝐈𝐍: $Coreweave(CRWV.US) CoreWeave Explores Derivatives to Hedge Memory Chip Price Risk - $Sandisk(SNDK.US) $Micron Tech(MU.US) $SK Hynix(SKHY.US)

👉 𝐊𝐞𝐲 𝐇𝐢𝐠𝐡𝐥𝐢𝐠𝐡𝐭𝐬:

➤ 𝐂𝐨𝐫𝐞𝐖𝐞𝐚𝐯𝐞 is exploring financial derivatives to hedge memory-chip price risk.

➤ Discussions remain 𝐞𝐚𝐫𝐥𝐲-𝐬𝐭𝐚𝐠𝐞, with no hedges executed yet.

➤ Company is evaluating 𝐩𝐮𝐭 𝐨𝐩𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧𝐬 and other derivative instruments.

➤ Long-term supply deals guarantee memory suppliers a 𝐩𝐫𝐢𝐜𝐞 𝐟𝐥𝐨𝐨𝐫.

➤ Falling chip prices could leave CoreWeave paying 𝐚𝐛𝐨𝐯𝐞-𝐦𝐚𝐫𝐤𝐞𝐭 contract prices.

➤ CoreWeave has supply agreements with firms including 𝐌𝐢𝐜𝐫𝐨𝐧 and 𝐒𝐚𝐧𝐃𝐢𝐬𝐤.

➤ Memory and flash storage prices have risen sharply amid 𝐀𝐈 infrastructure demand.

➤ 𝐒𝐊 𝐇𝐲𝐧𝐢𝐱 and 𝐌𝐢𝐜𝐫𝐨𝐧 expect major new capacity by 𝐞𝐚𝐫𝐥𝐲 𝟐𝟎𝟐𝟖.

➤ The strategy mirrors commodity hedging used in industries like 𝐞𝐧𝐞𝐫𝐠𝐲 and 𝐚𝐢𝐫𝐥𝐢𝐧𝐞𝐬.

📢 𝐉𝐔𝐒𝐓 𝐈𝐍: Galaxy Digital Completes Phase I of Helios AI Data Center for CoreWeave - $Galaxy Digital(GLXY.US) $Coreweave(CRWV.US)

👉 𝐊𝐞𝐲 𝐇𝐢𝐠𝐡𝐥𝐢𝐠𝐡𝐭𝐬:

➤ 𝐆𝐚𝐥𝐚𝐱𝐲 𝐃𝐢𝐠𝐢𝐭𝐚𝐥 completed 𝐏𝐡𝐚𝐬𝐞 𝐈 of its Helios data center campus.

➤ Phase I delivers 𝟐𝟎𝟎 𝐌𝐖 gross power, including 𝟏𝟑𝟑 𝐌𝐖 of critical IT load.

➤ Capacity was delivered to 𝐂𝐨𝐫𝐞𝐖𝐞𝐚𝐯𝐞 under a 𝟏𝟓-𝐲𝐞𝐚𝐫 lease agreement.

➤ Rent commenced in 𝐐𝟐 𝟐𝟎𝟐𝟔 as Helios became an operational AI data center.

➤ 𝐏𝐡𝐚𝐬𝐞 𝐈𝐈, adding 𝟐𝟔𝟎 𝐌𝐖 of critical IT load, is under development.

➤ Phase II data hall deliveries are expected to begin in 𝐇𝟏 𝟐𝟎𝟐𝟕.

➤ CoreWeave committed to 𝟓𝟐𝟔 𝐌𝐖 of critical IT load across Phases I-III.

➤ The 15-year leases are expected to generate 𝐨𝐯𝐞𝐫 $𝟏 𝐛𝐢𝐥𝐥𝐢𝐨𝐧 in average annual revenue.

➤ Helios spans 𝟐,𝟐𝟎𝟎+ acres with approved capacity of 𝟏.𝟔𝟑 𝐆𝐖, expandable to 𝟑.𝟔 𝐆𝐖.

👉 𝐖𝐡𝐲 𝐈𝐭 𝐌𝐚𝐭𝐭𝐞𝐫𝐬:

➤ Expands infrastructure supporting 𝐡𝐲𝐩𝐞𝐫𝐬𝐜𝐚𝐥𝐞 𝐀𝐈 computing demand.

➤ Long-term leases provide Galaxy with 𝐯𝐢𝐬𝐢𝐛𝐥𝐞, recurring revenue streams.

➤ Helios strengthens Galaxy's position in the fast-growing 𝐀𝐈 𝐝𝐚𝐭𝐚 𝐜𝐞𝐧𝐭𝐞𝐫 market.

👉 𝐄𝐱𝐩𝐞𝐫𝐭 𝐒𝐭𝐚𝐭𝐞𝐦𝐞𝐧𝐭:

➤ "Completing Phase I on budget and on schedule affirms Galaxy's position as an operator capable of executing hyperscale AI data center development." — 𝐌𝐢𝐤𝐞 𝐍𝐨𝐯𝐨𝐠𝐫𝐚𝐭𝐳, Founder and CEO of Galaxy.

$Coreweave(CRWV.US) | Wolfe Research reiterates 𝐎𝐮𝐭𝐩𝐞𝐫𝐟𝐨𝐫𝐦 on 𝐂𝐨𝐫𝐞𝐖𝐞𝐚𝐯𝐞, maintains 𝐏𝐓 𝐚𝐭 $𝟏𝟓𝟎, 'We remain confident'

Analyst sees increased confidence in capacity going live as scheduled and views shares at an attractive valuation.

📊 Overnight Movers

$Sandisk(SNDK.US) $Micron Tech(MU.US) $IREN(IREN.US) $Strategy(MSTR.US) $BitMine Immersion Tech(BMNR.US) $Western Digital(WDC.US) $Circle(CRCL.US) $Nebius(NBIS.US) $CleanSpark(CLSK.US) $Astera Labs(ALAB.US) $Marvell Tech(MRVL.US) $Arm(ARM.US) $Coreweave(CRWV.US)