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Nanya Technology’s board approved to raise 2026 capex to NT$69.7 billion (US$2.2 billion) from NT$52 billion to speed up work on its new Fab 5A, media report, which is ultimately expected to cost up to NT$346.6 billion (US$10.7B) by 2029. It’s the biggest investment by a Taiwan DRAM maker in 20-years. $Micron Tech(MU.US) $SK Hynix(SKHY.US) $SSNLF $Applied Materials(AMAT.US) $KLA(KLAC.US) $Lam Research(LRCX.US) #semiconductors
Source: Dan Nystedt
GF Securities is forecasting global WFE to reach $236 billion in 2027 and then $295 billion in 2028.
$ACM Research(ACMR.US) $KLA(KLAC.US) $ASML(ASML.US) $Lam Research(LRCX.US) $Applied Materials(AMAT.US)Top movers: $Lam Research(LRCX.US) $Starbucks(SBUX.US) $Fortinet(FTNT.US)
Top Losers: $Meta Platforms(META.US) $Qualcomm(QCOM.US) $Carvana(CVNA.US)KLA with macro assumptions on the semiconductor industry:
> CY25-CY30E semiconductor industry CAGR of ~11% > Wafer Equipment grows ~1 pt. faster than Semi to $215B +/- $20B > ~60% foundry / logic, ~40% memory > Process Control market grows > WFE$KLA $Applied Materials(AMAT.US) $Lam Research(LRCX.US)$Lam Research(LRCX.US) | Evercore ISI 𝐫𝐞𝐢𝐭𝐞𝐫𝐚𝐭𝐞𝐬 𝐎𝐮𝐭𝐩𝐞𝐫𝐟𝐨𝐫𝐦 on 𝐋𝐚𝐦 𝐑𝐞𝐬𝐞𝐚𝐫𝐜𝐡, 𝐦𝐚𝐢𝐧𝐭𝐚𝐢𝐧𝐬 𝐏𝐓 𝐚𝐭 $𝟑𝟓𝟓
Analyst sees strong fundamentals but advises waiting to add shares, believing near-term positives are largely baked into the high valuation.Morgan Stanley: Semiconductor Production Equipment
Market Dynamics by Application> Segment Dominance: Logic/Foundry is the largest segment of the Wafer Fab Equipment (WFE) market. Within this segment, TSMC accounts for approximately 30–50% of the market.> Industry Specialization: Among major Japanese equipment makers, companies are typically associated with specific application plays:SCREEN: Primarily a Logic/Foundry play.TEL (Tokyo Electron): Primarily a DRAM-related play.KOKUSAI: Primarily a NAND-related play.Front-End vs. Back-End> Market Split: The semiconductor equipment market is split roughly 9:1 between front-end and back-end equipment.> Trend Rebound: While the back-end equipment share trended downward for over 20 years as front-end tool value-add and unit prices rose, it has recently rebounded due to surging demand in the AI semiconductor market.Competitive Landscape in Key Equipment Segments> Lithography: The market is highly concentrated, with ASML holding a 95% share of the CY25 worldwide lithography equipment market.> Dry Etching: The market for etchers is diverse. Lam Research leads with a 43% share, followed by Tokyo Electron (20%) and AMAT (19%).In Conductor Etch, Lam Research is the dominant player with a 50% share.In Dielectric Etch, Tokyo Electron holds the majority share at 55%.Nvidia Compute Chip Cost Breakdown> Gross Profit: The gross profit margin accounts for 75% of the total cost. > Frontend Costs: The wafer cost represents 6% of the total. > Backend Costs: These total 19% of the cost structure, broken down into: HBM cost: 13%. Test cost: 3%. CoWoS cost: 3%ASIC Cost Breakdown> Gross Profit: The gross profit margin is significantly lower at 45% of the total cost. > Frontend Costs: The wafer cost represents 13% of the total. > Backend Costs: These total 42% of the cost structure, broken down into: HBM cost: 24%. Test cost: 7%. CoWoS cost: 11%.$NVIDIA(NVDA.US) $Alphabet(GOOGL.US) $Amazon(AMZN.US) $Applied Materials(AMAT.US) $Lam Research(LRCX.US)Needham: WFE Spending
> Estimates Raised: Needham has increased its adjusted WFE spending estimates for the years 2026, 2027, and 2028; 2026: Adjusted WFE is now estimated at $145.3B (up from $130.1B). 2027: Adjusted WFE is now estimated at $201.0B (up from $149.6B). 2028: New CY28 WFE forecast introduced at $191.6B. Growth Drivers: The upgrades are primarily driven by accelerating DRAM and NAND spending, alongside faster-than-expected growth in leading-edge foundry/logic. > CY28 Outlook: The forecast for 2028 reflects a "pause in growth" following two years of expansion, with memory spending—specifically DRAM—expected to moderate. Key Segment Insights> Foundry/Logic: Spending has strengthened, particularly at leading-edge nodes. For 2027, Needham expects leading-edge growth of approximately 30% year-over-year. > DRAM: Described as "the true AI bottleneck," DRAM WFE for 2027 is now modeled at $84.1B, a 72% increase from the previous estimate of $49.0B. > NAND: While pricing has been volatile, long-term bit growth driven by AI is expected to remain in the mid-20s to 30% range. $KLA(KLAC.US) $Lam Research(LRCX.US) $Applied Materials(AMAT.US)HSBC: WFE Forecasts
Terafab Impact> WFE Outlook: Wafer Fab Equipment (WFE) investments from Terafab might be limited in 2026 and 2027 as they initially focus on building the physical shell of the fab. However, HSBC now models Terafab capex at USD 3bn / 10bn / 20bn for 2026e / 2027e / 2028e respectively, with spending starting to flow into their WFE estimates in 2027.Upgraded WFE Forecasts for 2028> Rising Visibility: Customers of semiconductor capital equipment companies are showing rising visibility into 2028, signaling worries about ongoing supply constraints and pointing to another strong year of growth.> Higher Growth Targets: Bottom-up capex analysis suggests semiconductor company capex will grow by 14% in 2028.> Upgraded WFE Growth: HSBC has significantly raised its 2028 WFE growth forecast to 20% YoY (up from their previous May 2026 estimate of just 5.3% YoY). This outperformance is expected to be driven by direct spending on equipment rather than just clean room shells.$ASML(ASML.US) $Applied Materials(AMAT.US) $Lam Research(LRCX.US)Nanya Technology plans to spend NT$200 billion (US$6.2 billion) on 2027 capex, up from this year’s NT$50B+, media report. Nanya is aiming for 30,000 wafers per month (wpm) capacity by 2028 at its new fab, which will ultimately reach 45Kwpm. Around NT$100B has already been spent on the total NT$480B fab project. Nanya is the biggest Taiwan DRAM maker. $Applied Materials(AMAT.US) $ASML(ASML.US) $Lam Research(LRCX.US) $KLA(KLAC.US)
Source: Dan Nystedt
$SK Hynix(SKHY.US) $Micron Tech(MU.US) $Sandisk(SNDK.US) SK Hynix raised about US$26.5bn in its Nasdaq ADR debut, putting the AI memory chip chain back in focus.The key point is not just another chip listing. It ref...
According to sources, David Tepper's Appaloosa Management was up 32% in the first half of 2026
Here's the latest on what he's holding:• Amazon $Amazon(AMZN.US) (15.16%)• Micron Technology $Micron Tech(MU.US) (9.48%)• Alphabet $Alphabet - C(GOOG.US) (8.38%)• Uber $Uber Tech(UBER.US) (7.68%)• Taiwan Semiconductor $Taiwan Semiconductor(TSM.US) (7.56%)• Alibaba $Alibaba(BABA.US) (7.33%)• iShares South Korea ETF $EWY (4.98%)• Meta $Meta Platforms(META.US) (4.21%)• Corning $Corning(GLW.US) (2.59%)• Lam Research $Lam Research(LRCX.US) (1.38%)• Baidu $Baidu(BIDU.US) (1.30%)• L3Harris $L3Harris Tech(LHX.US) (1.15%)• ASML $ASML(ASML.US) (1.10%)• Ball Corp $Ball(BALL.US) (0.83%)• AMD $AMD(AMD.US) (0.76%)This is Appaloosa's top 15 out of 31 total positions, representing a $5.93B portfolio as of Q1 2026$Lam Research(LRCX.US) $KLA(KLAC.US) $ASML(ASML.US) $TMC the Metals(TMC.US) - All of them look similar with exceptional candles.
In other words, we do see a good rotation in $SMH & $SOXX. Let's ride the trend.Our local market finally fell following consecutive days of gains, but managed to recover slightly at the close. Reits remain relatively stable for now, but I expect prices to fall if and when the FED announces rate hikes eventually. Banks cooled off a little but are still in the midst of a bullish run.
Two memory stories, opposite directions. Micron printed a record quarter and ripped ~15% after hours, lifting the whole chip complex over 3%. Meanwhile Apple had its worst day in over a year, down 6%,...
easy way, buy a little bit at every 5% drop. The safer way is to buy until seeing the Bullish Reversal Candlestick Patterns
The stocks have been rising for so long. This is just a normal pullback. Be cool, wait patiently and buy low. The Vix is not at the peak yet
This is the time not to panic if youre holding chinese Internet companies. Hold on for the long term. Another lesson learned is that don't use leverage to trade. Only invest/trade with the money that youre comfortable to lose 100%.
Two memory stories, opposite directions. Micron printed a record quarter and ripped ~15% after hours, lifting the whole chip complex over 3%. Meanwhile Apple had its worst day in over a year, down 6%,...
The stocks have been rising for so long. This is just a normal pullback. Be cool, wait patiently and buy low. The Vix is not at the peak yet
Two memory stories, opposite directions. Micron printed a record quarter and ripped ~15% after hours, lifting the whole chip complex over 3%. Meanwhile Apple had its worst day in over a year, down 6%,...
Two memory stories, opposite directions. Micron printed a record quarter and ripped ~15% after hours, lifting the whole chip complex over 3%. Meanwhile Apple had its worst day in over a year, down 6%,...
$Lam Research(LRCX.US) buyers spotted stepping into the $385C for 06/26, loading up with over $1.85M in premium. 👀
TSMC’s first CoPoS pilot line equipment is already being installed at subsidiary VisEra’s plant in Longtan, north Taiwan, with much equipment from CoWoS advanced packaging lines, but a few key differences, media report, citing unnamed supply chain sources, who say earliest time mass production likely 2029:
-Lam Research edged out a big US rival for a spot on the first demo line, while V5 Technologies and Scientech also beat rivals into the line.-The time from first delivery of a demo through validation and mass production is expected to take a year-and-a-half.-CoPoS is so new that equipment suppliers only a few demo machines ready, a sign mass production remains far off. 1/2 $Taiwan Semiconductor(TSM.US) $Lam Research(LRCX.US) $Applied Materials(AMAT.US) $Tokyo Electron(TOELY.US) #semiconductorsSource: Dan Nystedt
Elon Musk’s TeraFab is a major project and new opportunity that will test ASML’s supply chain, said ASML CEO Christophe Fouquet, comparing the size to the millions-of-wafers DRAM fab projects going on in South Korea, in an interview with Bloomberg. 1/3 $SpaceX(SPCX.US) $ASML(ASML.US) $SSNLF $HXSCL $Applied Materials(AMAT.US) $Tokyo Electron(TOELY.US) $Lam Research(LRCX.US) #terafab #semiconductors
Source: Dan Nystedt
