Nomura: DRAM/NAND Wafer Capacity
Samsung Electronics> DRAM Capacity Growth: SEC’s DRAM capacity is projected to expand significantly from 655k wafers/month at the end of 2024 to 1,264k wafers/month by the end of 2030, driven by heavy capacity additions in phases like P4, P5, and P6. Year-over-year (y-y) growth peaks notably in 2030 at 22%.> NAND Capacity Trends: NAND capacity fluctuates in the near term (with dips in 2025 and 2027), but ramps up significantly toward the end of the decade, reaching 533k wafers/month by the end of 2030 with a 29% y-y growth.SK Hynix> DRAM Expansion: SK Hynix ramps up total DRAM capacity from 474k in 2024 to 1,183k wafers/month by end-2030. Major growth spurts are expected in 2028 (25% y-y growth) and 2030 (26% y-y growth), largely supported by new expansions in the Y1, Y2, and Y3 phases.> NAND Trajectory: After experiencing capacity contractions between 2025 and 2027, SK Hynix's NAND production surges sharply starting in 2028 (up 58% y-y) to hit 580k wafers/month by end-2030.Micron> DRAM Growth & Regional Split: Micron’s DRAM capacity grows steadily from 310k in 2024 to 690k wafers/month by end-2030. Expansion is anchored by both its Taiwan facilities (scaling from 195k to 430k) and its US/Japan operations.> NAND Stability: Micron’s NAND capacity remains stable at 130k wafers/month through 2026 before expanding via new fab lines (such as Fab 10 B and Fab 11) to reach 280k wafers/month by 2029–2030.$Micron Tech(MU.US) $DRAM $EWY
GraniteShares 2x Long SK Hynix Daily ETF
SKUU16.9669.03% ( -1.684 )
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$XL2CSOPHYNIX(07709.HK) is still slightly losing money. I feel there's some hope for next week, probably because dividends are about to be paid.
- Z
SK Hynix ripped in Seoul on the shareholder return story, outpacing Samsung, and management is saying they will meaningfully expand capital returns with a concrete plan by year end. the quiet period ending on the 4th was the unlock for that. memory finally starting to hand cash back instead of just announcing capacity 🏦
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$Sandisk(SNDK.US) and HBF thoughts:
An analyst question from the Sandisk earnings call: "High bandwidth flash, I'm wondering if you're seeing any price premium on that...versus conventional NAND."Sandisk's response: "It's a little early to talk about pricing on some of those nodes just yet."This answer has left me scratching my head...HBF is Sandisk's near-term growth vector for entry into AI inference workloads. Since HBF will command higher ASPs than standard NAND flash, Sandisk's HBF economics need to be forecasted to gauge what this means for future earnings.In turn, HBF pricing needs to be compared to HBM since every HBF order is an allocation decision made against HBM — same construction, same adv packaging capacity, same customer, same BOM line, same qualification cycle etc etc.However, the part that left me confused is this.It's usually the case in most industries that when you get these types of non-answers regarding new product pricing — it's a signal of a premium pricing model vs. incumbent companies and "competing" products. There are many examples you can Google separately.So in simple terms, is this a signal that Sandisk's HBF is to be priced ~similarly to HBM?This wouldn't make much sense since it's widely assumed that HBF is worse than HBM, by design. For example, HBF is lower latency and has slow and finite write endurance vs. unlimited for HBM.Therefore, should HBF not be priced relatively lower than HBM to account for these shortcomings? Ultimately, if Sandisk's HBF does get priced highly, what's to say that Sandisk's demand would remain sticky longer term?These are just musings, but considering that the SK Hynix and Sandisk HBF specs were released earlier this week, I hope that Sandisk provides more clarity/clues in their Investor Day next week. - C
Storage Is King? The Options Market Prices SanDisk's Earnings Night at ±15%
SanDisk just jumped 10.84% into tonight's earnings, and the options market is still pricing a ±15% swing with no clear direction — here's what the data actually says.
+3
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samsung took DRAM share back to 39%, hynix dropped from 39 to 26, micron sitting at 25. everyone keeps shouting supercycle but nobody wants to talk about who actually loses share inside one 🤔
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$XL2CSOPHYNIX(07709.HK)
**My suggestion: Sell 2,000 units on today's rebound, keep 1,000 units. Don't clear the position all at once, but also don't continue to hold a full position bearing 2x volatility.**
As of **09:31 CST**:
- 7709: **HK$39.50, +6.47%**, opening range HK$39.40–40.00
- SK Hynix: **₩1.656 million, +5.01%**
- However, Hynix surged to **₩1.701 million** in the early session before pulling back, indicating significant profit-taking at the open.
- The KOSPI is still up **3.06%**, so this isn't a failed rebound; there's no urgent need to exit completely for now.
- Southern Asset Management officially confirmed: the target leverage for 7709 today remains **2x**.
### Operational Framework
1. **HK$39.5–40.0: Sell 2,000 units**
This recovers approximately **HK$79,000–80,000**. Knowing that the cost basis for these 2,000 units was HK$36.18; calculated at 39.5, the return on this portion is approximately **9.18%**.
2. **Continue observing the remaining 1,000 units**
- If Hynix reclaims **₩1.68 million** and 7709 breaks above **HK$40.5**: Hold on, with initial targets at **HK$41.5–43**.
- If 7709 falls back below **HK$37.10**: Exit all remaining positions to prevent today's rebound profits from being given back.
### Why not clear the entire position?
Hynix has already reclaimed the area near yesterday's high of ₩1.63 million, and the market is seeing broad-based recovery. The rebound may have a second leg. Selling everything would mean missing out on this upside. However, its rapid pullback from ₩1.701 million suggests that **this looks more like a strong technical rebound rather than confirmation of a new trend.**
**In short: Instead of betting on whether it can double again, let's secure two-thirds of the profits and principal first, leaving one-third to participate in a potential second wave.** 7709 is suitable for fighting battles, not for standing guard.
I have recorded your current holding of **3,000 units** in the portfolio file; since I do not have records of the cost basis for the additional 1,000 units, I have not fabricated any overall portfolio P&L.
— Jason 🍎
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$SK Hynix(SKHY.US) put buyers spotted hitting the $124P for 08/14, aggressively loading up with over $1.11M in premium.
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$SK Hynix(SKHY.US) | Rosenblatt 𝗶𝗻𝗶𝘁𝗶𝗮𝘁𝗲𝘀 𝗕𝘂𝘆 on 𝗦𝗞 𝗛𝘆𝗻𝗶𝘅, PT $𝟯𝟮𝟬
Analyst sees SK Hynix’s HBM leadership and constrained memory capacity supporting an opportunity to own the shares at a discount. - Z
SK hynix did 79.32 trillion won of revenue, up 257% yoy at a 76% operating margin, and still missed the street's 84 trillion. HBM4 is in mass production and DRAM ASP was up about 30% qoq. when a print that good gets sold, the bar stopped being fundamentals and became expectations. trimmed a third of mine.
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AI compute sector sentiment rebounds; First global HBF storage standard goes live | Daily News Recap
0804 | Dolphin Research Focus: 🐬 Macro/Sector 1)
Overnight, sentiment around AI compute turned higher overseas, with hardware across the chain rallying. Meta raised its Hyperion data center investment to $50bn and capacity target to 5GW.Amazon likewise lifted 2026 capex to $220bn. It expects the storage shortfall to extend into 2027/2028...Today’s Key News Recap - B
$XL2CSOPHYNIX(07709.HK) just came a bit early. Hahaha, this stock is much more thrilling than our big crypto circle. Comparing the price changes of bitcoin, it's basically a stablecoin.
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ok so sandisk and SK hynix just put out this HBF standard, 512GB a device with a UCIe link straight to the GPU. genuinely asking, does that make NAND an actual AI component now or is it still just storage with better marketing?? 🙏
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Well that was a nice reversal for the major US indices as they started on the low trapping the bears and gained strength as the day progresses. Result: Nice daily green candles all round. Volume is low though. Will we get a follow through day? Day 4-7 after a rally off the lows is when that usually happens. Go bulls go!
☕️ [Task Coins Giveaway] Daily Market Talk — Palantir Revenue Jumps 93%Amazon became the fifth company ever worth $3 trillion. Then Palantir printed 93% revenue growth after the bell while still sitting 40% below its own high.
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I am rather surprised that US and Japan joined hand to intervene YEN. My read: American is under threaten by Japanese. If US don’t buy YEN, BOJ will dump its massive $1.14T+ Treasury pile which would have sent yields rocketing and hurt stocks far more.
Am I correct? Trump and Takashi in the same boat now. Both depends on each other 🤣.No more “Pearl harbour “ story 🤭
☕️ [Task Coins Giveaway] Daily Market Talk — Palantir Revenue Jumps 93%Amazon became the fifth company ever worth $3 trillion. Then Palantir printed 93% revenue growth after the bell while still sitting 40% below its own high.
- H
great earnings that prove that AI is having positive economic impact has brought the market back up, plus the hope for the strait being under US control leading to a higher chance the conflict can be resolved is what has driven this move up. we are still in a headline sensitive environment so we should still be aware and manage our risk properly, nothing can continue going up forever but we must stay invested to be part of the gains
☕️ [Task Coins Giveaway] Daily Market Talk — Palantir Revenue Jumps 93%Amazon became the fifth company ever worth $3 trillion. Then Palantir printed 93% revenue growth after the bell while still sitting 40% below its own high.
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War on Iran. The two countries are always confused by many people. US says negotiations are on the way, Iran is desperate to seal the deal, but Iran say not true.
☕️ [Task Coins Giveaway] Daily Market Talk — Palantir Revenue Jumps 93%Amazon became the fifth company ever worth $3 trillion. Then Palantir printed 93% revenue growth after the bell while still sitting 40% below its own high.
- H
📊 𝐈𝐍𝐕𝐄𝐒𝐓𝐎𝐑 𝐍𝐎𝐓𝐄: Morgan Stanley Upgrades Korea to Overweight 'after leverage washout'. - $SK Hynix(SKHY.US)
"Korea to overweight after leverage washout: The KOSPI has 36% upside to our Korean strategist's 9,000 target, with a near-term range of 5,500-10,500 (see Korea Still Has MoJo). Valuation support is anchored in Samsung Electronics and SK hynix, but we see thematic tailwinds for Industrials, Defence, and Financials. We also hold LS Electric, Hanwha Aerospace, and Hana Financial in our Focus Lists." - E
The Memory Cycle Did Not Break. The Trade Did.
There is relatively little argument that July was one of the ugliest months semiconductor investors have lived through in nearly two decades. The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index fell 21 percent, its ...
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⚡ 𝐔𝐏𝐃𝐀𝐓𝐄: CXMT Weighs Second Beijing DRAM Fab Amid AI Memory Boom - Reuters - $Sandisk(SNDK.US) $Micron Tech(MU.US) $SK Hynix(SKHY.US) $Seagate Tech(STX.US) $Western Digital(WDC.US)
👉 𝗞𝗲𝘆 𝗛𝗶𝗴𝗵𝗹𝗶𝗴𝗵𝘁𝘀:➤ 𝗖𝗫𝗠𝗧 is considering building a 𝘀𝗲𝗰𝗼𝗻𝗱 𝗗𝗥𝗔𝗠 fab in Beijing.➤ Company is in financing talks with Beijing-backed technology investors.➤ Expansion follows CXMT's record $𝟴.𝟲 𝗯𝗶𝗹𝗹𝗶𝗼𝗻 IPO last month.➤ Proposed Beijing fab would be located in 𝗬𝗶𝘇𝗵𝘂𝗮𝗻𝗴 technology hub.➤ CXMT is seeking at least ¥𝟲𝟬 𝗺𝗶𝗹𝗹𝗶𝗼𝗻 in local government support.➤ Shanghai and Hefei expansion projects could double capacity above 𝟲𝟬𝟬,𝟬𝟬𝟬 wafers monthly.➤ CXMT currently operates 𝘁𝗵𝗿𝗲𝗲 𝟭𝟮-𝗶𝗻𝗰𝗵 DRAM fabs in China.➤ AI infrastructure demand continues to drive global 𝗺𝗲𝗺𝗼𝗿𝘆 𝗰𝗵𝗶𝗽 shortages.➤ A leading-edge DRAM fab typically requires more than $𝟭𝟬 𝗯𝗶𝗹𝗹𝗶𝗼𝗻 to build.👉 𝗪𝗵𝘆 𝗧𝗵𝗶𝘀 𝗠𝗮𝘁𝘁𝗲𝗿𝘀:➤ Highlights China's push to expand domestic 𝗔𝗜 𝗺𝗲𝗺𝗼𝗿𝘆 manufacturing capacity.➤ Increased CXMT output could intensify competition with 𝗦𝗮𝗺𝘀𝘂𝗻𝗴, 𝗦𝗞 𝗛𝘆𝗻𝗶𝘅, and 𝗠𝗶𝗰𝗿𝗼𝗻.➤ Additional DRAM supply may reshape the global AI memory market over time.➤ Demonstrates continued state-backed investment in China's semiconductor industry.