IBM 2X Long ETF

$IBM(IBM.US) | 𝐒𝐭𝐢𝐟𝐞𝐥 reiterates 𝐁𝐮𝐲 on 𝐈𝐁𝐌, 𝐜𝐮𝐭𝐬 𝐏𝐓 𝐭𝐨 $𝟐𝟑𝟓 𝐟𝐫𝐨𝐦 $𝟐𝟗𝟎

$Microsoft(MSFT.US)

IBM‘s collapse surprisingly failed to drag IGV down with it, and that’s what caught my attention the most. Under normal circumstances, such a sharp selloff in a major enterprise technology name would have put heavy pressure on the entire software sector. Instead, IGV remained relatively resilient, and Microsoft attracted steady buying throughout the session.

That kind of price action suggests the market is making a clear distinction between company-specific issues and the broader software landscape. More importantly, the persistent demand for Microsoft feels unusual. Buyers were willing to absorb supply without hesitation, almost as if they were looking beyond the current headlines.

Whether that‘s because investors expect a positive catalyst, stronger AI monetization, or simply view Microsoft as the highest-quality software name is impossible to know. But the tape is definitely sending a message: while most software stocks still struggle for capital, Microsoft continues to find committed buyers even on bad-news days.

@Captain's Treasure

$IBM(IBM.US) stabilized at 211, down only 2.7% the day after its worst crash since 1987. the community is talking about it more than any other name right now. but i'm not buying the dip, the reason it crashed, clients yanking budgets to hoard memory and servers, is a rotation problem that doesn't fix in a day. it's a great read-through for memory bulls, not a buy signal for IBM itself. watching, not touching.

• Earnings season reveals a significant divide in the tech sector, with winners and losers emerging.

Bank stocks continue the rally without any signs of stopping. Even when market opened lower yesterday, our 3 local banks managed to turn the tide and lead the reversal to eventually close higher for the day. I believe this is great for long term investors, but at the same time also expect the prices to drop back down in October when the trading board size decreases to increase trading volume.

The market-boosting effect of CPI is somewhat insignificant. The market is currently in a state of intense tug-of-war between bulls and bears. The anticipated quarterly earnings season has been suppressed all along. Will it simply fizzle out or wait for an outburst after the suppression? Let's wait and see.

$IBM(IBM.US)IBM’s surprise early earnings release caught the market completely off guard. Instead of reassuring investors, it triggered fears that parts of its business could be under pressure from AI, leading to an immediate 25% selloff.

Whether those concerns are justified is another question, but the reaction shows how sensitive the market has become. Right now, anything that hints at slowing growth or weaker AI competitiveness is punished aggressively. Investors are no longer giving companies the benefit of the doubt.

The speed of the decline also highlights how quickly sentiment can reverse. Just weeks ago, IBM was being treated as one of the market‘s favorite AI beneficiaries. Now the narrative has flipped, reminding everyone how fragile confidence can be in this environment.

@Captain's Treasure

June CPI came in lower than expected and the markets cheered slightly. Software stocks turned positive by closing while massive capital was flowing back into chips and memory stocks. However, I still hold a neutral stance as the macro risk is still very real. With companies starting to report earnings from the end of the month, I will be paying close attention to what they have to say.

I don't think IBM's collapse is just a company-specific issue. To me, management's explanation is actually one of the most important takeaways from this earnings season. If customers are delaying software and mainframe spending because they are prioritizing AI servers, storage and memory, it suggests AI budgets are increasingly flowing toward the infrastructure layer first. Companies supplying GPUs, HBM memory, networking and storage could continue to benefit before enterprise software fully catches up.

That also helps explain why semiconductor and memory stocks reacted so strongly. SK Hynix's surge, together with gains in Micron, SanDisk and Nvidia, reinforces my view that the AI infrastructure buildout is still in its early stages. As long as hyperscalers continue expanding AI capacity, demand for high-performance memory and storage should remain robust, even if software spending becomes more selective in the near term.

For my own portfolio, I remain constructive on AI hardware. I continue to focus on companies exposed to memory, storage and semiconductor infrastructure because that's where I see the strongest earnings momentum today. Software will likely have its next leg higher once this infrastructure wave matures, but for now I believe the market is rewarding the businesses that are building the foundation of the AI ecosystem.

IBM's software was hit as these were to be ran on their proprietary z17 mainframes (massive centralised supercomputer hardware). The capex for 3rd party servers (think Lego blocked CPU-GPU) engines is for AI workloads which is a different use case from z17. So it's not spending rotating from software to hardware per se, but to build a new gen of infrastructure for the age of AI.

I’m really pleased to see STI breaking new record. A large part of that has to do with the 3 big banks which are on fire. I’m not so sure if this has to do with the AI manufacturing story. The AI manufacturing related stocks (component suppliers) I hold are up one day and down the next.

The AI stack is being rebuilt and IBM’s legacy stack isn’t in it. Budgets arenu’t coming back to mainframes once they’re reallocated to Nvidia, AMD, and cloud infra. This isn’t a pause, it’s permanent share loss. Worst day ever could become a new normal until they prove AI relevance.

Its good that inflation came down. Hopefully the data keeps trending in a good way and helps keep the prices of things, especially essential ones, manageable.

I used to work at IBM and honestly, I do not have a good experience there. I never liked the culture or work environment at all. That’s why I never buy their shares.

Go take a look at their financial statements from 2020 to 2025. Compare the CEO’s pay against the company’s yearly revenue . You will be absolutely stunned 😂

Gold surged 700 pips right after yesterday’s CPI release only to fall back again quickly. What a classic bull trap 🥲.

Frankly speaking, I don’t buy these CPI numbers at all. With the Strait of Hormuz still shut, there is no way oil prices can drop back to pre-conflict levels ☺️.

Go ask around your friends and colleagues – does anyone actually feel like inflation is slowing down? 🤣

Cooling inflation strengthened expectations that price pressures are easing, prompting investors to increase exposure to risk assets. Softer-than-expected CPI reduced expectations of a near-term interest rate hike, supporting gains in technology and semiconductor stocks, which are generally more sensitive to interest rate expectations. While the broader market responded positively, performance remained mixed across sectors, with the Dow’s advance limited by weakness in IBM.

$Marvell Tech(MRVL.US) bounced with the chip complex on the cool CPI but it's a second-tier AI name that mostly trades on the group's mood. custom silicon is a real story and the IBM read-through, budgets flooding into hardware, helps it long term. but i want it to hold 240 and i want to see TSMC tomorrow before adding. riding the group, watching the level.

Looks like inflation is cooling (at least on data) and more evidence that capital is being shunted into AI related spendings first which shows the urgency and scarcity of supply.