Longbridge HK, US stocks community

Is the “AI slowdown” narrative really bearish?

I’ve been thinking about the recent comments from Anthropic’s CEO about slowing down AI development.

And I have to say… I’m not completely buying the way the market is interpreting it.

The safety concerns may well be genuine. But I also can’t ignore the incentives.

If you’re already one of the companies at the frontier of AI, slowing things down — or making the regulatory hurdles higher — doesn’t necessarily hurt you. In fact, it could make life much harder for everyone trying to catch up.

That’s also why I found it interesting that Elon Musk $Tesla(TSLA.US)agreed.

Maybe I’m being cynical 😂, but when competitors suddenly agree that everyone should slow down, one of the first questions I ask is:

Who benefits?

For me, the bigger question as an investor is whether anything has actually changed in the AI infrastructure story.

Are hyperscalers cutting capex?

Are accelerator orders being cancelled?

Is demand for networking, memory, storage or power starting to weaken?

If the answer is no, then I’m not sure a few comments about slowing AI development automatically mean the AI investment cycle is slowing too.

For now, I see this more as a narrative shock than a thesis break.

And perhaps there’s another possibility:

Slower model development could actually mean more spending on inference, safety, testing and infrastructure before the next generation gets released.

That’s the part I’m watching.

What do you think? Genuine concern, strategic positioning… or a bit of both? 😂

@Captain Leo

The market reaction feels a little too binary to me. One call for slower AI development should not suddenly erase the massive investments already going into AI infrastructure. Chips, memory and data centers may face short-term volatility, but the underlying demand for compute is still there. I see this more as a sentiment reset than the end of the AI story.

Cybersecurity getting a 14%+ boost is interesting, because safer AI will likely require more security, not less AI. For me, the key is not picking the hottest side of the trade today, but watching where the fundamentals remain strong after the panic. If quality AI names get dragged down further, I would rather use the weakness to DCA than chase a sudden cybersecurity rally.

$Lion-phillip S-Reit(CLR.SG)

Got it — I’ll keep the exact same template and just make each section longer.

SREIT Trade Reflection

✓

Context: I was looking at SREITs because I wanted to add more income-generating investments to my portfolio. I was thinking about the potential for regular distributions as well as the possibility of capital appreciation over the longer term. I also felt that SREITs could provide some diversification from my other investments. At the same time, I was aware that SREITs can be affected by interest rates, borrowing costs, property valuations, and overall market sentiment, so I wanted to be mindful of the risks before entering.

My trade: Added SREITs because I felt the valuations and distribution yields were attractive relative to the potential risks. I wanted to gain exposure to the sector and benefit from the recurring income while holding the investment for the longer term. I decided to start with a manageable position rather than putting too much capital in at once, giving myself room to add more later if the opportunity became more attractive. My decision was mainly based on the income potential, diversification benefits, and my view that the sector could perform better over time as market conditions improved.

Takeaway: I’d do more research into each SREIT’s debt, distribution sustainability, property quality, and valuation before buying, rather than focusing mainly on the yield and overall sector outlook.

$Keppel Reit(K71U.SG)

Context: Keppel REIT has been trading sideways, while markets are pricing in two Fed hikes by year-end, with a 25bps hike all but certain this week. That rate outlook is likely to cap near-term upside for rate-sensitive REITs.

My trade: I’m taking a cautious hold for now and watching how the market reacts to the rate path.

Takeaway: REITs will likely remain under pressure given their rate sensitivity, so it’s time to weigh an exit.

$Seatrium(5E2.SG)

Context:

I’ve been watching Seatrium because the offshore & marine sector looks like it’s entering a more interesting cycle. With energy demand and offshore projects picking up, I think there’s potential for the industry to recover further.

My trade:

I decided to buy Seatrium as a turnaround play. The company has gone through a major restructuring, and I’m betting that better execution, stronger orders and improving margins can translate into better results over time.

Takeaway:

Definitely not a low-risk stock, but that’s also why I’m interested. I’m taking a position for the potential upside if the turnaround continues to gain momentum.

$IBM(IBM.US) took my paydays off for great payday %. This one will not be easy as it tries to chew on the ER warnings gap. Price is back to 200ema. I moved up all stops.

Source: Sunrise Trader

$Circle(CRCL.US)

Context: I originally added Circle to improve diversification in my portfolio. Rather than having too much exposure to assets driven by similar factors, I wanted to include a position with a different risk and return profile.

My Trade: I did not add to or reduce my position this time. I’m continuing to hold Circle at an average cost of $90.909. The position is currently around +2%, with the share price at approximately $92.940. For now, I’m monitoring whether the position continues to serve its intended role in my portfolio.

Takeaway: Diversification is not just about owning more stocks. What matters is whether each position adds genuinely different risk and return drivers to the overall portfolio.

Mizuho on Semis pullback: 'we see this as a buying opportunity with $Micron Tech(MU.US), $Lumentum(LITE.US), $Credo Tech(CRDO.US), $Sandisk(SNDK.US), $Broadcom(AVGO.US), $Dell Tech(DELL.US), and $Lam Research(LRCX.US) remaining well-positioned'.

small token for prediction prize

Goldman Sachs: companies we visited see pricing competition remaining healthy, with 800G optical module pricing decline within single digits in 2027, and 1.6T optical module price to sustain at $700+.

$Sembcorp Ind(U96.SG)dropping at start of the week. Waiting patiently for stock price to break record high.

Context

Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN) is transforming from an e-commerce giant into a high-margin AI and cloud infrastructure powerhouse .

- AWS Acceleration: Amazon Web Services (AWS) drives the thesis, with enterprise AI adoption fueling surging revenues. Crucially, cloud revenue growth is now outpacing heavy AI capital expenditures, unlocking massive free cash flow.

- The Ad Engine: Amazon’s high-margin digital advertising business acts as a silent margin multiplier, offsetting the lower-margin retail divisions.

- Technical Setup: The stock is consolidating in a wide monthly range (~$249–$267). While Wall Street remains heavily bullish, this sideways price action offers an accumulation window.

My trade

Strategy: A 70/30 Long Equity and Options Overlay to build a position during consolidation. Deploy 70% of capital into core equity at the current midpoint (~$255). Allocate 30% of capital to sell Cash-Secured Puts at a $248 strike, targeting strong structural support at the bottom of the range.

Takeaway

The Valuation Trap: Evaluating Amazon on a simple consolidated P/E ratio is a mistake. A Sum-of-the-Parts (SOTP) model reveals its true value: separating the premium cloud and high-margin ad businesses from legacy retail shows a stock that is deeply undervalued relative to its forward cash generation.

Bottom Line: Accumulating AMZN during sideways consolidation remains a high-conviction play as its operational efficiency flywheel gains momentum.

$NVIDIA(NVDA.US)

Context: President Donald Trump called Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang live on speakerphone at the All-In Summit in Los Angeles on Monday to dismiss growing concerns about AI regulation proposals. During the five-minute call, Trump dismissed fears of an existential AI takeover as a "hoax." and said robots are not going to take over the world. He argued that slowing U.S. tech development or adding heavy rules on data centers would only help foreign rivals like China. While Trump noted the U.S. must proceed "prudently," he emphasized that "that doesn't mean we're going to stop an industry." Huang agreed with the president, saying the U.S. can lead in AI while staying safe.

My Trade: I saw the dip as an opportunity to add to my existing position, though with an initial smaller size first as many anticipate a rate hike and stock prices to fall further. If Nvidia breaks recent resistance levels, I'm targeting a $190 next.

Takeaway: Although AI leaders like Anthropic and OpenAI called for a slower progression of AI, I doubt the spending of AI will slow down significantly anytime soon. I'm betting on the slower but more steady growth of Nvidia. @Captain's Treasure

iPhone Lead Time Tracker 3 days into Pre-Orders: We're seeing average lead times of 2.6 weeks across 8 countries. That's in line with where the Pro models were last year.

Source: Gene Munster

Please see my daily pre-mkt summary on my assessment of elevated oil prices caused by Saudi Arabia’s closure of their East-West pipeline, which has driven Brent crude to $105/bbl and caused 10-year treasury yields to spike to 5.05%, its highest level since 2007. This has led value stocks to significantly outperform growth stocks (+20.9% vs +2.7% respectively YTD) with long duration growth stocks like $Tesla(TSLA.US) impacted most. Money markets now see a 92% chance of a Fed hike (first hike since July 2023) tomorrow following the two-day Fed meeting.