Longbridge HK, US stocks community

Today we have set out how we’re building AI to accelerate science and improve people’s lives. Just some examples in the last week or so:

Source: Sundar Pichai

Foot traffic is down over 2% YoY in August and that killed the momentum in $Cheesecake Factory(CAKE.US) $CBRL(CBRL.US) $Cava(CAVA.US) $Brinker(EAT.US)

Talks about slowing down AI is nothing new. It is indeed warranted that development has to be done in a responsible way. but this isn't something that will actually slow anyone down. a lot od noise, pullback is good for entry.

$SPY Volume DOESN'T LIE....

$VG S&P 500(VOO.US)

Context: The S&P 500 slipped below the psychological 700 benchmark amidst broader sector rotation and choppy macro sentiment, triggering a dip-buying opportunity on my radar.

My trade: Added — filled a fractional order of 0.5 shares at $696. Capitalizing on this brief pullback allowed me to systematically lower my cost basis, deploying dry powder in manageable tranches rather than trying to call the absolute floor.

Takeaway: Fractional limit fills make scaling in frictionless during intraday dips, keeping accumulation steady without overcommitting capital all at once.

I believe it’s better for equities if the Fed raises short-term rates by 25bp tomorrow (first Fed rate increase since July 2023) in response to elevated oil prices (brent crude +50% since end of Feb) than to get forced into a series of rate hikes. While brent prices are likely to fall from here if Trump can negotiate an end to the war — which would help Republicans in the midterms — a dose of Fed medicine tomorrow could prevent a situation where a Kevin Warsh-led Fed is forced onto a path of several interest rate hikes, which would likely push 10-year Treasury yields higher, hurting growth equities. A short term rate hike tomorrow if positioned as potentially one-and-done could push 10-year treasury yields lower.

Iggy's Journal: The Number Everyone's Watching Isn't The Fed, It's The 10-Year

15 September 2026, Late Night

Quick one before I turn in, still adjusting to UK time. The US 10-year Treasury yield ended last week at 4.97%, just below 5%. It briefly traded above 5% on Monday, but hasn't recorded a daily close above that level since 2007. JPMorgan strategists now see a quarter point hike as likely at the Fed meeting concluding Wednesday.

What I'm Doing About It

Higher global yields can affect financing conditions here, but that's not the same as saying it moves SORA directly, SORA responds to Singapore dollar money market conditions and MAS policy settings. What I'm actually doing is watching Lendlease and Keppel DC's coverage ratios more closely this week, not because either has a new problem, but because that's the channel worth tracking if borrowing costs drift higher.

The Numbers

August core CPI rose 0.3% month on month, 0.1 point above forecast, annual core rate held at 2.4%, in line with expectations. That pushed futures to price roughly a 90% probability of a hike this week. One portfolio manager called the Fed "behind the curve," expecting yields higher regardless of Wednesday. JPMorgan's desk sees a hike as likely but stays bearish on long end Treasuries given possible reactions to the statement and Chair Warsh's press conference.

My Personal Take

The 5% level itself doesn't mean much mechanically, nothing structurally different happens crossing a round number. But markets treat round numbers as decision points anyway, and that alone can move things. I'd rather watch how Wednesday's decision gets received than react to a yield print from before it.

Cheers, Iggy 🦖

The rate of progress in AI has been unprecedented and unmatched. The fear is that we can lose control of the technology and create something that can be a danger to us. This may sound like a familiar plotline from one of the movies that Hollywood churned out in the past but I think it is a very valid concern. Our laws are also having to play catch up.

$Reto Eco-Solutions(RETO.US)

Put money for awhile and take money. 🤑

Feeling anxious seeing a sea of red at today's stock market before the fed meeting. Most people are selling off to de-risk from the stock market. I am fearful of buying into a falling knife, so I will observe for now $Sembcorp Ind(U96.SG)

$Seatrium(5E2.SG)

Context:

Seatrium caught my attention after the big changes the company has gone through. The offshore & marine sector is also looking more active, and I think the recovery story is worth keeping an eye on.

My trade:

I decided to buy Seatrium because I see potential in the turnaround. I’m looking beyond the short-term share price and betting that stronger orders and better execution can improve the company’s earnings over time.

Takeaway:

This is definitely a higher-risk bet in my portfolio, but I like the potential upside if the turnaround continues. Not expecting overnight results, so I’m willing to be patient with this one.

Breaking: Michael Burry says AI's biggest customers are "tokenmaxxing"

With the emergence of a second war in the middle east, analysts are forecasting 2 rate hikes this year instead of the original 1. A high 90% probability of rate hike in a few days' time would probably see FED raising interest rate for the first time since 2023. Though I would not be surprised if Trump's pressure on FED leads to them holding off for yet another period of time before the inevitable will happen.

The leather jacket returns to Washington, D.C. 👀

Source: NVIDIA_X