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Captain's Watch1 day ago, 04:57 AM
PinnedThe tone for the AI main theme is set tonight! Google and Tesla earnings reports appear together, with Intel closing out on Thursday.
About 77 S&P 500 constituents are scheduled to report this week, putting the market's direction entirely in the hands of earnings. The peak moment of the week is tonight, with Google and Tesla reporting after hours on Wednesday (July 22) ET. Tech stocks have already pulled back last week, and prices have already priced in that a "beat" is the standard expectation. An earnings beat doesn't necessarily mean the stock will rise; only an upward revision of guidance (raise) provides real catalyst.
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amit1 hour ago
Does anyone think the Mag 7 and the Semiconductors can participate together in a bull market?
In 2026, the market has obviously been extremely selective.
For the Semis (cap-ex beneficiaries) to do well, the market has taken down the Mag 7 (cap ex spenders) the entire year.
When the Mag 7 were doing well over the past few weeks, the Semis were going down.
Do they all go up together at some point or for the next few years, will the market continue to be selective with capital allocation to one sector over the other?
Source: amit
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Equity research2 hours ago
A Senior Executive at Supply Chain Logistics Company on fiber cable:
"We're seeing a huge restriction in fiber cable availability, which that's a very critical part of the network and builds just cannot happen if that fiber is not available. That's for sure creating some concern out there."
Market Demand and Supply Overview
> Seasonal Demand: Demand for fiber buildouts is strong, following the typical seasonal peak that runs from late March/April through the end of the summer.
> The Primary Bottleneck: Bulk fiber cable is severely restricted due to high demand from the data center and hyperscale environment (such as Amazon, Google, and Meta), leaving less capacity for traditional telecom builds.
> Other Components: Aside from fiber cable, other products and miscellaneous items (such as conduit and hand tools) are experiencing no supply or lead time issues.
Impact Across Telecom Tiers
> Tier 1 Providers Protected: Major service providers like AT&T, Verizon, Brightspeed, and Lumen are largely insulated from shortages because they have direct contractual allocation programs with major manufacturers.
> Tier 2 & Tier 3 Providers Impacted: Smaller regional providers (such as Cincinnati Bell or Consolidated Communications) are facing significant challenges, with an estimated 25% of their builds currently impacted or pushed out due to a lack of available fiber.
Manufacturing Shifts (Corning and CommScope)
> Corning's Hyperscaler Focus: Corning has locked up mega-deals with hyperscalers like Amazon Web Services, Google, and Meta, turning its focus toward data center customers.
> CommScope Supply Disruption: Corning cut off its long-standing partnership of supplying raw glass to its competitor CommScope to satisfy its own customer demands, heavily disrupting CommScope and causing lead times to stretch out by months.
> Capacity Timeline: Industry participants are advised that it will take 1.5 to 2 years for new U.S. manufacturing capacity to come online to meet the surge in demand.
Active Electronics Bottlenecks
> Secondary Concern: Active network equipment requiring memory chips—sourced from vendors like Adtran, Nokia, and Calix (including ONTs, OLTs, CPE, and servers)—represents a growing but secondary bottleneck.
> Cost and Lead Times: These active components are facing double-digit cost increases and doubled lead times, though they are not currently causing widespread project cancellations.
$Corning(GLW.US)
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Dolphin Research2 hours ago
INTC 2Q26 First Take: another beat this quarter.Revenue growth accelerated, driven by Client Computing and Data Center & AI, with CPU price increases the biggest swing factor.GPM continued to expand as pricing tailwinds offset dilution from the 18A ramp.
Intel’s wafer capacity still primarily serves its own products.External foundry revenue was approx. $300mn this quarter, about 2% of the company’s overall Foundry Mfg. Dept. revenue.
Guidance for next quarter is solid.The company expects revenue of $15.8–16.8bn (+15% to +23% YoY), ahead of the Street at $15.5bn.Strength is led by demand for server CPUs.
GPM (GAAP) is guided to approx. 41% next quarter, up QoQ and above the Street at 39.3%.Management reaffirmed that keeping GPM sustainably above 40% remains the top priority.
The recent pullback in the stock reflects headlines around Meta’s compute leasing and the K3 model, which stoked concerns about the durability of big tech Capex.That pressured the broader sector, especially the price-hike beneficiaries.
This print underscores resilient CPU momentum, with the upside again largely price-driven.Compared with other semi names, INTC still trades at a premium, which also embeds expectations for the foundry business.
The current CPU price-hike cycle is a transitory tailwind, helping stabilize confidence in a fragile market.A meaningful external foundry order/revenue contribution is needed to unlock greater upside, and that is what investors most want to see.For more, follow Dolphin Research. $Intel(INTC.US)
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Hardik Shah9 hours ago
📢 𝐉𝐔𝐒𝐓 𝐈𝐍: Trump Administration says the EU DMA $1 billion fine for Google threatens trade stability - Fox Business - $Amazon(AMZN.US) $Alphabet(GOOGL.US) $Meta Platforms(META.US)
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NewUser_CkrdqW Rate Of Return20 hours ago
Google's earnings were solid, take away the gain in SpaceX and Anthropic and is it still $2.85 vs $2.95 expected. Capex spending continues to grow, which is completely within expectations - the market just reacted for the sake of reacting. In my opinion, I'm more worried for next week's Meta & Msft earnings. Those 2 are the ones that have been struggling all year round.
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Captain's Watch
☕️ [Task Coins Giveaway] Daily Market Talk — Alphabet's $200B Capex Bill Comes Due
The AI capex bill everyone was dreading finally landed. Alphabet beat on sales and grew Cloud 82%, but guided 2026 spending to a staggering $195-205B, swung to negative free cash flow, and fell about ...
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Equity research1 day ago, 08:15 PM
Former Senior Finance Role at Nebius Group says,
"The problem of CoreWeave is their business model is sign a contract and then allocate data centres, then allocate GPUs and buy the GPUs they don't have and then start project management. The whole cycle within CoreWeave is about 24 months. The majority of their revenue, maybe 95% or more is still Hopper revenue."
"There are neoclouds like Nebius who do it a bit different. We were building data centre capacity, buying GPUs without knowing to whom we're going to sell it to. Coreweave only start working when they have a signed contract and then they're going to look for the data centre capacity and the GPUs, which is fully hedged. It's like without risk, you have always a coverage by a five-year contract. The disadvantage is you can't monetise fast."
> Revenue per Gigawatt Trends & Waves: Revenue per gigawatt does not decline in a straight line; instead, it moves in cycles tied to GPU generations. Prices spike at the launch of a new GPU generation (like Blackwell or Vera Rubin) and then gradually decrease over time within multi-year contracts. CoreWeave’s revenue per gigawatt has decreased over recent quarters because older contracts signed during peak Hopper pricing are rolling alongside newly added capacity at lower rates.
> Business Model Differences (CoreWeave vs. Nebius):
CoreWeave follows a risk-hedged model where they sign multi-year contracts (typically five years) with major customers first, and then procure data center space and Nvidia GPUs.
Nebius often builds out data center capacity and secures hardware proactively before locking down every final end customer, allowing them to monetize faster and cater to urgent capacity needs or mid-sized enterprises.
> Long-Term Outlook on Hyperscalers: Nebius anticipates that hyperscalers (like Microsoft and Meta) will only utilize neoclouds as stopgaps for five to eight years until they fully internalize their own infrastructure. Consequently, Nebius is positioning itself as a "mini hyperscaler" targeting enterprises, European entities seeking data sovereignty away from U.S. jurisdiction, and diverse corporate clients.
> Memory Pricing & Unit Economics Impact: Memory prices (such as high-bandwidth memory) cannot typically be locked in when striking multi-year customer agreements. However, memory accounts for a relatively small percentage of overall unit economics (e.g., roughly 2% to 3% historically), meaning even a 2x-3x price spike only minorly impacts contribution margins. Neoclouds offset these headwinds through advanced natural air and water cooling (saving up to 30% on power costs) or by slightly extending GPU depreciation timelines (e.g., from 5 to 5.5 or 6 years).
> Data Center Outfitting Timelines: For a standard 50MW greenfield powered shell, outfitting and bringing servers online takes about two months, while larger 300MW sites with roughly 90,000 GPUs take 3 to 4 months. While moving from Hopper to Blackwell requires similar configuration windows (around 6 to 10 weeks), upcoming Vera Rubin chips are vastly more powerful and thermally intense, meaning older colocation sites will struggle to handle them without expensive retrofits.
> Financing & Profitability Realities: CoreWeave utilizes heavy debt financing (such as recent deals at a 9.5% interest rate), creating a large interest expense burden. While CoreWeave anticipates operating margins jumping significantly as new capacity comes online, the expert is skeptical of rapid jumps (such as 1% to 16% in the short term) given high capital costs and market impatience regarding profitability.
> GPU Utilization Targets: Neoclouds actively target high capacity utilization rates exceeding 90% (often 94% to 95%) on external customer data centers to maintain competitive pricing against hyperscalers, who typically settle for 75% to 80%.
$Nebius(NBIS.US) $Coreweave(CRWV.US)
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Hardik Shah1 day ago, 08:31 AM
$Meta Platforms(META.US) | Mizuho reiterates 𝐎𝐮𝐭𝐩𝐞𝐫𝐟𝐨𝐫𝐦 on 𝐌𝐞𝐭𝐚, maintains 𝐏𝐓 𝐚𝐭 $𝟖𝟑𝟓
Analyst sees upside to top/bottom-line estimates and a path for multiple expansion, driven by ad growth, AI news, and compute monetization.
A
AllIn Call1 day ago, 03:28 AM
amd advancing ai is today and tomorrow, helios rack systems going to msft meta openai oracle. lisa su basically challenging nvidia head on. stock +4% riding it. i want to hear the mi450 roadmap before i size up but the setup looks good
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Hardik Shah2 days ago, 05:21 PM
📢 𝐉𝐔𝐒𝐓 𝐈𝐍: White House to Redirect Billions in Research Funds Toward AI, Away From Colleges - WSJ
$NVIDIA(NVDA.US) $AMD(AMD.US) $Intel(INTC.US) $Microsoft(MSFT.US) $Alphabet(GOOGL.US) $Palantir Tech(PLTR.US) $Meta Platforms(META.US)
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Paradi Lab2 days ago, 02:52 PM
Tough to say if semis have bottomed now.
With most AI infra names having green days.
- From $SIVE, $Aehr Test(AEHR.US), and $IQE up over 20%.
- To $Sandisk(SNDK.US), $Micron Tech(MU.US) and $Applied Optoelectronics(AAOI.US) up over 10%.
Regardless of today's returns, the next couple of weeks will certainly be more important for more clarity:
- 22 Jul: $Alphabet(GOOGL.US) Q2: first proper gauge of the ~$750B hyperscaler capex year.
- 22-23 Jul: $AMD(AMD.US) Advancing AI event: Roadmap read through for foundry loading + advanced packaging + laser type demand into 2027.
- 23 Jul: $Intel(INTC.US) Q2: 18A yields + foundry commitments are probably the main variables w/ reads on US onshoring & packaging momentum.
- 23 Jul: $IBM(IBM.US) Q2: already lost a ~25% of its MC so let's see how brutal the market is on guidance misses.
- 24 Jul: 10% global tariff expires & new tariffs on dozens of countries expected. It'd be a stagflationary factor that feeds the overarching Fed hike narrative.
- 27 Jul: Kimi K3 full weights released
- 28-29 Jul FOMC: rate hold expected per experts + Polymarket. Important to bear in mind that rate hikes (or signals of one) would be the AI trade's first genuine regime shift.
- 29-30 Jul: $Meta Platforms(META.US), $Microsoft(MSFT.US), $Amazon(AMZN.US) earnings: more capex datapoints.
- 30 Jul: June core PCE
And any day we could get a US-Iran ceasefire. There's still a 10 day proposal on the table while strikes keep happening. A proper/confirmed truce would help oil prices and helps semis.
Just for a high level timeline of the "main" important events coming up soon.
All have some kind of impact on semis to varying degrees.
AI capex of course will be most important when the hyperscalers report earnings.
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@SemiAnalysis2 days ago, 02:52 PM
ALERT🚨🚨: META's CUSTOM AMD MI400-series chip will be half the size of a normal MI455X chip. It is "optimized" for recsys workloads and $/Memory Bandwidth. It will use ~144GB of HBM instead of 432GB. We break it down below👇️ 1/7🧵
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amit2 days ago, 12:36 PM
The Semis are having their best day in a few weeks, but still significantly lower from their ATHs.
If the Semis have a good day, once again it means the SaaS and Mag 7 names should have a bad day, which is what is playing out again.
At this point I am curious how this trajectory continues to play out — so far this year, hyperscalers go down on increased capex and semiconductor names, which benefit from that capex, go up. The software names go down with the hyperscalers because the AI infra trade going green assumes that the application layer companies will be hurt by AI.
However, we just saw one of the worst drawdowns for momentum (which were basically semis) during July in the past 25 years. Multiple stories of liquidations and margin calls across the board.
Does that experience mean people go back to buying the boring SaaS and Mag 7 companies to have more sustainable, less violent volatility with cash flows that won’t get discounted due to cyclicality or fears of capex going down? If anything, the Mag 7 would rally on capex going down.
Or do people double down on the AI infra names as they are likely to steal all the EPS growth and continue to get a larger premium based on the discount towards the companies spending the capex? Because if the money goes right back to the semis, we end up getting the same market dynamics that we’ve seen for the past 3 months.
If we do get a doubling down, does the same leverage that just got flushed out of the system come back? If the hyperscalers all increase capex, do they go down again in order for the semis to go up?
These big tech earnings will be really important to see how the market is perceiving and interpreting the future of capex spend.
$NVIDIA(NVDA.US) $AMD(AMD.US) $Nebius(NBIS.US) $Micron Tech(MU.US) $Broadcom(AVGO.US)
Source: amit
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lungrisserRate Of Return2 days ago, 10:21 AM
Oil will return to $90+ again and stay for quite a while...until Trump decides to drop another bomb shell of a ceasefire and peace talks resumption.
C
Captain's Watch
☕️ [Task Coins Giveaway] Daily Market Talk — AMD Lands Microsoft for Helios
Anti-Nvidia silicon war heats up: AMD-Microsoft Helios deal + Google's "Frozen v2" chip open two new fronts against Nvidia the same day. STI takes a breather while DBS eyes S$1T wealth AUM by 2030.
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NewUser_zS0M8w Nebius Return RateMicrosoft2 days ago, 09:08 AM
$Nebius(NBIS.US) Nebius stock surged after Nvidia disclosed a 9.3% stake in the neocloud. The Amsterdam-based company has emerged as one of Europe's leading neoclouds providing AI compute, and has inked multiple deals with tech giants in 2026 amid massive infrastructure spending. The company has been one of the big beneficiaries of the AI boom, with the stock gaining nearly 250% in the past year. Nvidia previously announced it would invest $2 billion in the Dutch company, which is listed on the Nasdaq. As part of the deal, the companies will collaborate on AI infrastructure deployment, fleet management, inference and AI factory design and support. In March, Meta signed a long-term agreement to spend up to $27 billion on Nebius' AI infrastructure. With 2 of the top companies investing heavily into Nebius, this injects a strong vote of confidence especially for investors, amd if Nebius is able to deliver consistently, I don't see why the stock can't run up even more in the future. @Captain's Treasure
Trade Showcase: Trade, Show & Earn Rewards!
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Dolphin Research2 days ago, 03:33 AM
Semis Stage Big Rebound; BLK offloads $10bn+ US Treasuries to add to META compute infra | Daily News Recap
0721 | Dolphin Research Focus: Macro/Industry — Semis and memory rallied sharply today, delivering an oversold bounce. Flows rotated back into chip and compute plays as liquidity improved.
On the liquidity side, funds locked up by the CXMT IPO were released back into the market, and state-backed stabilization funds have been supporting since yesterday afternoon. Citi and Goldman Sachs raised their views on the onshore semiconductor supply chain, with foreign investors adding positions in tandem.
Following the Kimi K3 launch, expectations diverged between onshore and offshore capital. Domestic opinions are split, while overseas institutions highly endorse China LLMs and show stronger bottom-fishing appetite.
Together with tailwinds from AI memory and compute infrastructure, the sector rebounded broadly. The group saw a synchronized move higher...
Today’s Key News Recap
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dingdongbellRate Of Return2 days ago, 02:52 AM
Earnings are around the corner and funds that have derisked into it have done so, tech stocks looked to have bottomed and if earnings confirms AI momentum, tech will fly.
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Captain's Watch
☕️ [Task Coins Giveaway] Daily Market Talk — AMD Lands Microsoft for Helios
Anti-Nvidia silicon war heats up: AMD-Microsoft Helios deal + Google's "Frozen v2" chip open two new fronts against Nvidia the same day. STI takes a breather while DBS eyes S$1T wealth AUM by 2030.
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NewUser_CkrdqW Rate Of Return2 days ago, 01:44 AM
While everyone else was focused on South Korea crash & buying the dips on memory stocks, I am paying attention to our local market. With the reduced board lot size introduced in October, many are pushing bank stocks higher before taking profit later on. I'm not 100% sure that a healthy pullback is on the cards anytime soon, but I'm certainly not rushing in as well. I'm buying these bank stocks for my dividend portfolio, not trading, hence the patience and not trying to fomo in to lock in more profits.
C
Captain's Watch
☕️ [Task Coins Giveaway] Daily Market Talk — AMD Lands Microsoft for Helios
Anti-Nvidia silicon war heats up: AMD-Microsoft Helios deal + Google's "Frozen v2" chip open two new fronts against Nvidia the same day. STI takes a breather while DBS eyes S$1T wealth AUM by 2030.
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TheRaccoonAnalysisTotal AssetsRate Of Return2 days ago, 01:02 AM
AMD strengthened its AI infrastructure strategy by committing to the Helios platform, shifting from selling standalone accelerators to offering an integrated AI rack solution. Microsoft’s planned Azure deployment and customer commitments from Meta, OpenAI and Oracle enhance AMD’s AI positioning. Despite higher analyst price targets, the stock’s gains were limited as broader market sentiment was weighed down by oil price concerns and caution ahead of earnings, while select AI supply-chain segments remained relatively resilient.
C
Captain's Watch
☕️ [Task Coins Giveaway] Daily Market Talk — AMD Lands Microsoft for Helios
Anti-Nvidia silicon war heats up: AMD-Microsoft Helios deal + Google's "Frozen v2" chip open two new fronts against Nvidia the same day. STI takes a breather while DBS eyes S$1T wealth AUM by 2030.
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LazyCatRate Of ReturnNVIDIA Return Rate2 days ago, 12:22 AM
Seems like Fraser Centerpoint Trust prefers assets in the north-east sector of the island like this Bayshore one. So far, they haven't have foothold to the south-western sector like clementi-jurong east/west-Bukit Batok-Tengah-CCK-Bukit Panjang. Hopefully they would acquire something when the greater southern waterfront district lands.
C
Captain's Watch
☕️ [Task Coins Giveaway] Daily Market Talk — AMD Lands Microsoft for Helios
Anti-Nvidia silicon war heats up: AMD-Microsoft Helios deal + Google's "Frozen v2" chip open two new fronts against Nvidia the same day. STI takes a breather while DBS eyes S$1T wealth AUM by 2030.
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win winOrdersRate Of Return2 days ago, 12:16 AM
Memory stocks went down recently, is it a good buy on dip ? if yes which is the next giant should be well performed ? share with me thank you
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Captain's Watch
☕️ [Task Coins Giveaway] Daily Market Talk — AMD Lands Microsoft for Helios
Anti-Nvidia silicon war heats up: AMD-Microsoft Helios deal + Google's "Frozen v2" chip open two new fronts against Nvidia the same day. STI takes a breather while DBS eyes S$1T wealth AUM by 2030.

Share your thoughts

Write something you'd like to share with our community...

C
Captain's Watch1 day ago, 04:57 AM
PinnedThe tone for the AI main theme is set tonight! Google and Tesla earnings reports appear together, with Intel closing out on Thursday.
About 77 S&P 500 constituents are scheduled to report this week, putting the market's direction entirely in the hands of earnings. The peak moment of the week is tonight, with Google and Tesla reporting after hours on Wednesday (July 22) ET. Tech stocks have already pulled back last week, and prices have already priced in that a "beat" is the standard expectation. An earnings beat doesn't necessarily mean the stock will rise; only an upward revision of guidance (raise) provides real catalyst.
A
amit1 hour ago
Does anyone think the Mag 7 and the Semiconductors can participate together in a bull market?
In 2026, the market has obviously been extremely selective.
For the Semis (cap-ex beneficiaries) to do well, the market has taken down the Mag 7 (cap ex spenders) the entire year.
When the Mag 7 were doing well over the past few weeks, the Semis were going down.
Do they all go up together at some point or for the next few years, will the market continue to be selective with capital allocation to one sector over the other?
Source: amit
E
Equity research2 hours ago
A Senior Executive at Supply Chain Logistics Company on fiber cable:
"We're seeing a huge restriction in fiber cable availability, which that's a very critical part of the network and builds just cannot happen if that fiber is not available. That's for sure creating some concern out there."
Market Demand and Supply Overview
> Seasonal Demand: Demand for fiber buildouts is strong, following the typical seasonal peak that runs from late March/April through the end of the summer.
> The Primary Bottleneck: Bulk fiber cable is severely restricted due to high demand from the data center and hyperscale environment (such as Amazon, Google, and Meta), leaving less capacity for traditional telecom builds.
> Other Components: Aside from fiber cable, other products and miscellaneous items (such as conduit and hand tools) are experiencing no supply or lead time issues.
Impact Across Telecom Tiers
> Tier 1 Providers Protected: Major service providers like AT&T, Verizon, Brightspeed, and Lumen are largely insulated from shortages because they have direct contractual allocation programs with major manufacturers.
> Tier 2 & Tier 3 Providers Impacted: Smaller regional providers (such as Cincinnati Bell or Consolidated Communications) are facing significant challenges, with an estimated 25% of their builds currently impacted or pushed out due to a lack of available fiber.
Manufacturing Shifts (Corning and CommScope)
> Corning's Hyperscaler Focus: Corning has locked up mega-deals with hyperscalers like Amazon Web Services, Google, and Meta, turning its focus toward data center customers.
> CommScope Supply Disruption: Corning cut off its long-standing partnership of supplying raw glass to its competitor CommScope to satisfy its own customer demands, heavily disrupting CommScope and causing lead times to stretch out by months.
> Capacity Timeline: Industry participants are advised that it will take 1.5 to 2 years for new U.S. manufacturing capacity to come online to meet the surge in demand.
Active Electronics Bottlenecks
> Secondary Concern: Active network equipment requiring memory chips—sourced from vendors like Adtran, Nokia, and Calix (including ONTs, OLTs, CPE, and servers)—represents a growing but secondary bottleneck.
> Cost and Lead Times: These active components are facing double-digit cost increases and doubled lead times, though they are not currently causing widespread project cancellations.
$Corning(GLW.US)
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Dolphin Research2 hours ago
INTC 2Q26 First Take: another beat this quarter.Revenue growth accelerated, driven by Client Computing and Data Center & AI, with CPU price increases the biggest swing factor.GPM continued to expand as pricing tailwinds offset dilution from the 18A ramp.
Intel’s wafer capacity still primarily serves its own products.External foundry revenue was approx. $300mn this quarter, about 2% of the company’s overall Foundry Mfg. Dept. revenue.
Guidance for next quarter is solid.The company expects revenue of $15.8–16.8bn (+15% to +23% YoY), ahead of the Street at $15.5bn.Strength is led by demand for server CPUs.
GPM (GAAP) is guided to approx. 41% next quarter, up QoQ and above the Street at 39.3%.Management reaffirmed that keeping GPM sustainably above 40% remains the top priority.
The recent pullback in the stock reflects headlines around Meta’s compute leasing and the K3 model, which stoked concerns about the durability of big tech Capex.That pressured the broader sector, especially the price-hike beneficiaries.
This print underscores resilient CPU momentum, with the upside again largely price-driven.Compared with other semi names, INTC still trades at a premium, which also embeds expectations for the foundry business.
The current CPU price-hike cycle is a transitory tailwind, helping stabilize confidence in a fragile market.A meaningful external foundry order/revenue contribution is needed to unlock greater upside, and that is what investors most want to see.For more, follow Dolphin Research. $Intel(INTC.US)
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Hardik Shah9 hours ago
📢 𝐉𝐔𝐒𝐓 𝐈𝐍: Trump Administration says the EU DMA $1 billion fine for Google threatens trade stability - Fox Business - $Amazon(AMZN.US) $Alphabet(GOOGL.US) $Meta Platforms(META.US)
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NewUser_CkrdqW Rate Of Return20 hours ago
Google's earnings were solid, take away the gain in SpaceX and Anthropic and is it still $2.85 vs $2.95 expected. Capex spending continues to grow, which is completely within expectations - the market just reacted for the sake of reacting. In my opinion, I'm more worried for next week's Meta & Msft earnings. Those 2 are the ones that have been struggling all year round.
C
Captain's Watch
☕️ [Task Coins Giveaway] Daily Market Talk — Alphabet's $200B Capex Bill Comes Due
The AI capex bill everyone was dreading finally landed. Alphabet beat on sales and grew Cloud 82%, but guided 2026 spending to a staggering $195-205B, swung to negative free cash flow, and fell about ...
E
Equity research1 day ago, 08:15 PM
Former Senior Finance Role at Nebius Group says,
"The problem of CoreWeave is their business model is sign a contract and then allocate data centres, then allocate GPUs and buy the GPUs they don't have and then start project management. The whole cycle within CoreWeave is about 24 months. The majority of their revenue, maybe 95% or more is still Hopper revenue."
"There are neoclouds like Nebius who do it a bit different. We were building data centre capacity, buying GPUs without knowing to whom we're going to sell it to. Coreweave only start working when they have a signed contract and then they're going to look for the data centre capacity and the GPUs, which is fully hedged. It's like without risk, you have always a coverage by a five-year contract. The disadvantage is you can't monetise fast."
> Revenue per Gigawatt Trends & Waves: Revenue per gigawatt does not decline in a straight line; instead, it moves in cycles tied to GPU generations. Prices spike at the launch of a new GPU generation (like Blackwell or Vera Rubin) and then gradually decrease over time within multi-year contracts. CoreWeave’s revenue per gigawatt has decreased over recent quarters because older contracts signed during peak Hopper pricing are rolling alongside newly added capacity at lower rates.
> Business Model Differences (CoreWeave vs. Nebius):
CoreWeave follows a risk-hedged model where they sign multi-year contracts (typically five years) with major customers first, and then procure data center space and Nvidia GPUs.
Nebius often builds out data center capacity and secures hardware proactively before locking down every final end customer, allowing them to monetize faster and cater to urgent capacity needs or mid-sized enterprises.
> Long-Term Outlook on Hyperscalers: Nebius anticipates that hyperscalers (like Microsoft and Meta) will only utilize neoclouds as stopgaps for five to eight years until they fully internalize their own infrastructure. Consequently, Nebius is positioning itself as a "mini hyperscaler" targeting enterprises, European entities seeking data sovereignty away from U.S. jurisdiction, and diverse corporate clients.
> Memory Pricing & Unit Economics Impact: Memory prices (such as high-bandwidth memory) cannot typically be locked in when striking multi-year customer agreements. However, memory accounts for a relatively small percentage of overall unit economics (e.g., roughly 2% to 3% historically), meaning even a 2x-3x price spike only minorly impacts contribution margins. Neoclouds offset these headwinds through advanced natural air and water cooling (saving up to 30% on power costs) or by slightly extending GPU depreciation timelines (e.g., from 5 to 5.5 or 6 years).
> Data Center Outfitting Timelines: For a standard 50MW greenfield powered shell, outfitting and bringing servers online takes about two months, while larger 300MW sites with roughly 90,000 GPUs take 3 to 4 months. While moving from Hopper to Blackwell requires similar configuration windows (around 6 to 10 weeks), upcoming Vera Rubin chips are vastly more powerful and thermally intense, meaning older colocation sites will struggle to handle them without expensive retrofits.
> Financing & Profitability Realities: CoreWeave utilizes heavy debt financing (such as recent deals at a 9.5% interest rate), creating a large interest expense burden. While CoreWeave anticipates operating margins jumping significantly as new capacity comes online, the expert is skeptical of rapid jumps (such as 1% to 16% in the short term) given high capital costs and market impatience regarding profitability.
> GPU Utilization Targets: Neoclouds actively target high capacity utilization rates exceeding 90% (often 94% to 95%) on external customer data centers to maintain competitive pricing against hyperscalers, who typically settle for 75% to 80%.
$Nebius(NBIS.US) $Coreweave(CRWV.US)
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Hardik Shah1 day ago, 08:31 AM
$Meta Platforms(META.US) | Mizuho reiterates 𝐎𝐮𝐭𝐩𝐞𝐫𝐟𝐨𝐫𝐦 on 𝐌𝐞𝐭𝐚, maintains 𝐏𝐓 𝐚𝐭 $𝟖𝟑𝟓
Analyst sees upside to top/bottom-line estimates and a path for multiple expansion, driven by ad growth, AI news, and compute monetization.
A
AllIn Call1 day ago, 03:28 AM
amd advancing ai is today and tomorrow, helios rack systems going to msft meta openai oracle. lisa su basically challenging nvidia head on. stock +4% riding it. i want to hear the mi450 roadmap before i size up but the setup looks good
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Hardik Shah2 days ago, 05:21 PM
📢 𝐉𝐔𝐒𝐓 𝐈𝐍: White House to Redirect Billions in Research Funds Toward AI, Away From Colleges - WSJ
$NVIDIA(NVDA.US) $AMD(AMD.US) $Intel(INTC.US) $Microsoft(MSFT.US) $Alphabet(GOOGL.US) $Palantir Tech(PLTR.US) $Meta Platforms(META.US)
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Paradi Lab2 days ago, 02:52 PM
Tough to say if semis have bottomed now.
With most AI infra names having green days.
- From $SIVE, $Aehr Test(AEHR.US), and $IQE up over 20%.
- To $Sandisk(SNDK.US), $Micron Tech(MU.US) and $Applied Optoelectronics(AAOI.US) up over 10%.
Regardless of today's returns, the next couple of weeks will certainly be more important for more clarity:
- 22 Jul: $Alphabet(GOOGL.US) Q2: first proper gauge of the ~$750B hyperscaler capex year.
- 22-23 Jul: $AMD(AMD.US) Advancing AI event: Roadmap read through for foundry loading + advanced packaging + laser type demand into 2027.
- 23 Jul: $Intel(INTC.US) Q2: 18A yields + foundry commitments are probably the main variables w/ reads on US onshoring & packaging momentum.
- 23 Jul: $IBM(IBM.US) Q2: already lost a ~25% of its MC so let's see how brutal the market is on guidance misses.
- 24 Jul: 10% global tariff expires & new tariffs on dozens of countries expected. It'd be a stagflationary factor that feeds the overarching Fed hike narrative.
- 27 Jul: Kimi K3 full weights released
- 28-29 Jul FOMC: rate hold expected per experts + Polymarket. Important to bear in mind that rate hikes (or signals of one) would be the AI trade's first genuine regime shift.
- 29-30 Jul: $Meta Platforms(META.US), $Microsoft(MSFT.US), $Amazon(AMZN.US) earnings: more capex datapoints.
- 30 Jul: June core PCE
And any day we could get a US-Iran ceasefire. There's still a 10 day proposal on the table while strikes keep happening. A proper/confirmed truce would help oil prices and helps semis.
Just for a high level timeline of the "main" important events coming up soon.
All have some kind of impact on semis to varying degrees.
AI capex of course will be most important when the hyperscalers report earnings.
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@SemiAnalysis2 days ago, 02:52 PM
ALERT🚨🚨: META's CUSTOM AMD MI400-series chip will be half the size of a normal MI455X chip. It is "optimized" for recsys workloads and $/Memory Bandwidth. It will use ~144GB of HBM instead of 432GB. We break it down below👇️ 1/7🧵
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amit2 days ago, 12:36 PM
The Semis are having their best day in a few weeks, but still significantly lower from their ATHs.
If the Semis have a good day, once again it means the SaaS and Mag 7 names should have a bad day, which is what is playing out again.
At this point I am curious how this trajectory continues to play out — so far this year, hyperscalers go down on increased capex and semiconductor names, which benefit from that capex, go up. The software names go down with the hyperscalers because the AI infra trade going green assumes that the application layer companies will be hurt by AI.
However, we just saw one of the worst drawdowns for momentum (which were basically semis) during July in the past 25 years. Multiple stories of liquidations and margin calls across the board.
Does that experience mean people go back to buying the boring SaaS and Mag 7 companies to have more sustainable, less violent volatility with cash flows that won’t get discounted due to cyclicality or fears of capex going down? If anything, the Mag 7 would rally on capex going down.
Or do people double down on the AI infra names as they are likely to steal all the EPS growth and continue to get a larger premium based on the discount towards the companies spending the capex? Because if the money goes right back to the semis, we end up getting the same market dynamics that we’ve seen for the past 3 months.
If we do get a doubling down, does the same leverage that just got flushed out of the system come back? If the hyperscalers all increase capex, do they go down again in order for the semis to go up?
These big tech earnings will be really important to see how the market is perceiving and interpreting the future of capex spend.
$NVIDIA(NVDA.US) $AMD(AMD.US) $Nebius(NBIS.US) $Micron Tech(MU.US) $Broadcom(AVGO.US)
Source: amit
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lungrisserRate Of Return2 days ago, 10:21 AM
Oil will return to $90+ again and stay for quite a while...until Trump decides to drop another bomb shell of a ceasefire and peace talks resumption.
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Captain's Watch
☕️ [Task Coins Giveaway] Daily Market Talk — AMD Lands Microsoft for Helios
Anti-Nvidia silicon war heats up: AMD-Microsoft Helios deal + Google's "Frozen v2" chip open two new fronts against Nvidia the same day. STI takes a breather while DBS eyes S$1T wealth AUM by 2030.
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NewUser_zS0M8w Nebius Return RateMicrosoft2 days ago, 09:08 AM
$Nebius(NBIS.US) Nebius stock surged after Nvidia disclosed a 9.3% stake in the neocloud. The Amsterdam-based company has emerged as one of Europe's leading neoclouds providing AI compute, and has inked multiple deals with tech giants in 2026 amid massive infrastructure spending. The company has been one of the big beneficiaries of the AI boom, with the stock gaining nearly 250% in the past year. Nvidia previously announced it would invest $2 billion in the Dutch company, which is listed on the Nasdaq. As part of the deal, the companies will collaborate on AI infrastructure deployment, fleet management, inference and AI factory design and support. In March, Meta signed a long-term agreement to spend up to $27 billion on Nebius' AI infrastructure. With 2 of the top companies investing heavily into Nebius, this injects a strong vote of confidence especially for investors, amd if Nebius is able to deliver consistently, I don't see why the stock can't run up even more in the future. @Captain's Treasure
Trade Showcase: Trade, Show & Earn Rewards!
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Dolphin Research2 days ago, 03:33 AM
Semis Stage Big Rebound; BLK offloads $10bn+ US Treasuries to add to META compute infra | Daily News Recap
0721 | Dolphin Research Focus: Macro/Industry — Semis and memory rallied sharply today, delivering an oversold bounce. Flows rotated back into chip and compute plays as liquidity improved.
On the liquidity side, funds locked up by the CXMT IPO were released back into the market, and state-backed stabilization funds have been supporting since yesterday afternoon. Citi and Goldman Sachs raised their views on the onshore semiconductor supply chain, with foreign investors adding positions in tandem.
Following the Kimi K3 launch, expectations diverged between onshore and offshore capital. Domestic opinions are split, while overseas institutions highly endorse China LLMs and show stronger bottom-fishing appetite.
Together with tailwinds from AI memory and compute infrastructure, the sector rebounded broadly. The group saw a synchronized move higher...
Today’s Key News Recap
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dingdongbellRate Of Return2 days ago, 02:52 AM
Earnings are around the corner and funds that have derisked into it have done so, tech stocks looked to have bottomed and if earnings confirms AI momentum, tech will fly.
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Captain's Watch
☕️ [Task Coins Giveaway] Daily Market Talk — AMD Lands Microsoft for Helios
Anti-Nvidia silicon war heats up: AMD-Microsoft Helios deal + Google's "Frozen v2" chip open two new fronts against Nvidia the same day. STI takes a breather while DBS eyes S$1T wealth AUM by 2030.
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NewUser_CkrdqW Rate Of Return2 days ago, 01:44 AM
While everyone else was focused on South Korea crash & buying the dips on memory stocks, I am paying attention to our local market. With the reduced board lot size introduced in October, many are pushing bank stocks higher before taking profit later on. I'm not 100% sure that a healthy pullback is on the cards anytime soon, but I'm certainly not rushing in as well. I'm buying these bank stocks for my dividend portfolio, not trading, hence the patience and not trying to fomo in to lock in more profits.
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Captain's Watch
☕️ [Task Coins Giveaway] Daily Market Talk — AMD Lands Microsoft for Helios
Anti-Nvidia silicon war heats up: AMD-Microsoft Helios deal + Google's "Frozen v2" chip open two new fronts against Nvidia the same day. STI takes a breather while DBS eyes S$1T wealth AUM by 2030.
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TheRaccoonAnalysisTotal AssetsRate Of Return2 days ago, 01:02 AM
AMD strengthened its AI infrastructure strategy by committing to the Helios platform, shifting from selling standalone accelerators to offering an integrated AI rack solution. Microsoft’s planned Azure deployment and customer commitments from Meta, OpenAI and Oracle enhance AMD’s AI positioning. Despite higher analyst price targets, the stock’s gains were limited as broader market sentiment was weighed down by oil price concerns and caution ahead of earnings, while select AI supply-chain segments remained relatively resilient.
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Captain's Watch
☕️ [Task Coins Giveaway] Daily Market Talk — AMD Lands Microsoft for Helios
Anti-Nvidia silicon war heats up: AMD-Microsoft Helios deal + Google's "Frozen v2" chip open two new fronts against Nvidia the same day. STI takes a breather while DBS eyes S$1T wealth AUM by 2030.
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LazyCatRate Of ReturnNVIDIA Return Rate2 days ago, 12:22 AM
Seems like Fraser Centerpoint Trust prefers assets in the north-east sector of the island like this Bayshore one. So far, they haven't have foothold to the south-western sector like clementi-jurong east/west-Bukit Batok-Tengah-CCK-Bukit Panjang. Hopefully they would acquire something when the greater southern waterfront district lands.
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Captain's Watch
☕️ [Task Coins Giveaway] Daily Market Talk — AMD Lands Microsoft for Helios
Anti-Nvidia silicon war heats up: AMD-Microsoft Helios deal + Google's "Frozen v2" chip open two new fronts against Nvidia the same day. STI takes a breather while DBS eyes S$1T wealth AUM by 2030.
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win winOrdersRate Of Return2 days ago, 12:16 AM
Memory stocks went down recently, is it a good buy on dip ? if yes which is the next giant should be well performed ? share with me thank you
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Captain's Watch
☕️ [Task Coins Giveaway] Daily Market Talk — AMD Lands Microsoft for Helios
Anti-Nvidia silicon war heats up: AMD-Microsoft Helios deal + Google's "Frozen v2" chip open two new fronts against Nvidia the same day. STI takes a breather while DBS eyes S$1T wealth AUM by 2030.

META 1X Short ETF

META 1X Short ETF

PinnedThe tone for the AI main theme is set tonight! Google and Tesla earnings reports appear together, with Intel closing out on Thursday.

Semis Stage Big Rebound; BLK offloads $10bn+ US Treasuries to add to META compute infra | Daily News Recap

PinnedThe tone for the AI main theme is set tonight! Google and Tesla earnings reports appear together, with Intel closing out on Thursday.

Semis Stage Big Rebound; BLK offloads $10bn+ US Treasuries to add to META compute infra | Daily News Recap