The Semis are having their best day in a few weeks, but still significantly lower from their ATHs.
If the Semis have a good day, once again it means the SaaS and Mag 7 names should have a bad day, which is what is playing out again.At this point I am curious how this trajectory continues to play out — so far this year, hyperscalers go down on increased capex and semiconductor names, which benefit from that capex, go up. The software names go down with the hyperscalers because the AI infra trade going green assumes that the application layer companies will be hurt by AI. However, we just saw one of the worst drawdowns for momentum (which were basically semis) during July in the past 25 years. Multiple stories of liquidations and margin calls across the board.Does that experience mean people go back to buying the boring SaaS and Mag 7 companies to have more sustainable, less violent volatility with cash flows that won’t get discounted due to cyclicality or fears of capex going down? If anything, the Mag 7 would rally on capex going down.Or do people double down on the AI infra names as they are likely to steal all the EPS growth and continue to get a larger premium based on the discount towards the companies spending the capex? Because if the money goes right back to the semis, we end up getting the same market dynamics that we’ve seen for the past 3 months. If we do get a doubling down, does the same leverage that just got flushed out of the system come back? If the hyperscalers all increase capex, do they go down again in order for the semis to go up? These big tech earnings will be really important to see how the market is perceiving and interpreting the future of capex spend. $NVIDIA(NVDA.US) $AMD(AMD.US) $Nebius(NBIS.US) $Micron Tech(MU.US) $Broadcom(AVGO.US)Source: amit
























